| Best Director |
 UP: Clint Eastwood, Invictus. Some nice embargo-breaking reviews and a Best Director award from the NBR make Invictus sound like something the Academy will like way better than Gran Torino. |
 DOWN: Jason Reitman, Up in the Air. If one were to make a pie chart of how he comes off in this Times profile of Tom Ford, the biggest slice would be labeled "pretty bad!" |
| CURRENT PREDIX: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker; Lee Daniels, Precious; Clint Eastwood, Invictus; Rob Marshall, Nine; Jason Reitman, Up in the Air. |
| Best Actor |
 UP: Morgan Freeman, Invictus. Bill Keller says his performance is "less an impersonation than an incarnation." |
 DOWN: Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine. The movie's out in three weeks and we still haven't heard him sing. Why not? |
| CURRENT PREDIX: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, Up in the Air; Colin Firth, A Single Man; Morgan Freeman, Invictus. |
| Best Actress |  UP: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side. Giant box office makes her part of the conversation; a nomination could totally happen. Who the hell saw that coming? |  DOWN: Abbie Cornish, Bright Star. With Mirren, Mulligan, Sidibe, and Streep all locks, and Bullock and Cotillard coming up fast, she won't have an easy fight. |
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| CURRENT PREDIX: Abbie Cornish, Bright Star; Helen Mirren, The Last Station; Carey Mulligan, An Education; Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire; Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia. |
| Best Supporting Actor |
 UP: Matt Damon, Invictus. "If he weren't a recognizable film star," raves Variety, "you'd never think he were anything other than a South African rugby player." This year, that should be good enough for a nomination. |
 DOWN: Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones. Crappy reviews for the movie don't bode well for his chances here. Good thing he's great in Julie & Julia! |
CURRENT PREDIX: Matt Damon, Invictus; Alfred Molina, An Education; Christopher Plummer, The Last Station; Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones Julie & Julia; Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds. |
| Best Supporting Actress |
 UP: Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air. Big praise in all the reviews, plus an award from the Precious-hating NBR. |
 DOWN: Judi Dench, Nine. We're sure she's fine, but reviews for Air make it sound like Vera Farmiga will take her spot. |
| CURRENT PREDIX: Penélope Cruz, Nine; Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air; Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air; Mo'nique, Precious; Julianne Moore, A Single Man. |
UP: Up in the Air. The season's 500-pound gorilla finally arrives with solid reviews and the top prize from the National Board of Review.
DOWN: The Lovely Bones. We'd love to be proven wrong here, but all indications are that Peter Jackson made us a stinker.