Every week between now and January 25 when the nominations are announced, movies and stars will help themselves — or sometimes, hurt themselves — in the Oscar race. Vulture’s Oscar Futures will listen for insider gossip, comb the blogs, and out-and-out guess when necessary to track who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted nomination.
| Best Director |  UP: David O. Russell, The Fighter. With Fighter suddenly a plausible Best Picture contender, his nomination feels less and less like a long shot. |
 DOWN: Danny Boyle, 127 Hours. Hours is no Slumdog at the box office —Â will enough people see it? |
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| CURRENT PREDIX: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; Danny Boyle, 127 Hours; David Fincher, The Social Network; Tom Hooper, The King's Speech; Christopher Nolan, Inception. | ||
| Best Actor |  UP: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine. This week he covered our magazine and saw Valentine lose its NC-17 rating. Not bad. |
 DOWN: Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter. Echoing other critics, A.O. Scott says Wahlberg "[underplays] so gracefully and with so little vanity that you almost forget that the movie is supposed to be about Micky." So probably not the kind of performance that wins awards, then. |
| CURRENT PREDIX: Javier Bardem, Biutiful; Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Colin Firth, The King's Speech; James Franco, 127 Hours. | ||
| Best Actress |  UP: Natalie Portman, Black Swan. She gets a thumbs-up from ballerinas, and Swan scores 2010's best limited debut at the box office. |  DOWN: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right. Tom O'Neil, Pete Hammond, and Tim Apello see her lead dwindling. |
| CURRENT PREDIX: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Natalie Portman, Black Swan. | ||
| Best Supporting Actor |  UP: Armie Hammer, The Social Network. His just-announced role as Hoover's boyfriend in Clint Eastwood's J. Edgar shows how far his stock has risen this awards season. |
 DOWN: Christian Bale, The Fighter. Reviews for his performance are mostly great, but his campaigning style is being described as Mo'Nique-esque this week. It worked for Mo'Nique, but could still rub some the wrong way. |
| CURRENT PREDIX: Christian Bale, The Fighter; Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Ed Harris, The Way Back; Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech. | ||
| Best Supporting Actress |  UP: Amy Adams, The Fighter. Melissa Leo's role may be flashier, but Adams hasn't gone unnoticed this week: "The best and hardest punch in a movie full of flying fists is thrown by her," says A.O. Scott. |
 DOWN: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech. Remember when she was the front-runner? She needs to turn it up a notch. |
| CURRENT PREDIX: Amy Adams, The Fighter; Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech; Melissa Leo, The Fighter; |
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