Survivor is back! And it looks like the 43rd season is delivering another diverse and engaging group of castaways. From elevator salesmen to pet cremators and everything in between, this cast is an eclectic bunch of personalities, to say the least. But who has the best chance of winning it all?
Here, my power rankings of the 17 remaining players after the premiere episode, organized from most likely to least likely to win. I’ll return with an updated ranking after the merge episode and at the final six to see how these predictions hold up.
1. Jesse
The former gang member turned Berkeley grad took a slow-and-steady approach in the season premiere, which paid dividends. He was the guy everyone wanted at the party; he had alliance offers coming at him like spam emails. Sometimes, being in the middle can land a player in a tricky situation, but Jesse’s measured approach to the game gives me confidence that he can handle his predicament.
2. Ryan
While other players dug themselves into metaphorical holes, Ryan literally dug his way to success in the first episode. His creative thinking in the “Sweat†task won his tribe supplies in record time. He has the makings of a great leader and provider for the Coco tribe, so long as he can manage his threat level and avoid becoming a dictator.
3. Lindsay
If anyone is going to cause Ryan a problem, however, it will probably be Lindsay. This Survivor superfan quickly built an all-women alliance on the Coco tribe while also making progress with James. If this alliance holds strong, that’s bad news for Ryan and fellow blue-tribe member Gus. It’s too early to put any merit into alliances, but, regardless, Lindsay seems to have a good mind for the game.
4. Sami
The “energable†Sami surprised his tribemates and the viewers when he cracked the first puzzle of the season. And he doubled up his goodwill by also starting the fire. This puts Sami in a solid position within the Baka tribe, even if it does make him stand out as a threat. He’ll need to form strong bonds to protect him in the long run; if he can do that, he could make it deep.
5. James
There were positive vibes exuding from James throughout the premiere. He came across as a super-likable guy capable of making friends quickly. Like Jesse, he had tribe members falling over themselves to make alliances with him. His longevity will depend on how he plays this situation. If he’s chill about it, he’ll remain in a good position. However, he talked about his love for chaos, which is slightly alarming (but exciting).
6. Noelle
The U.S. Paralympian receives a middle-of-the-pack ranking for a middle-of-the-road episode. While Noelle didn’t do anything particularly memorable, she didn’t do anything egregious, either. She pulled her weight in challenges, helped at camp, and seemed to be bonding socially, particularly with Justine. There is a long road ahead of her, so she will eventually need to spread her wings if she wants to fly high.
7. KarlaÂ
Another player in the middle of budding alliances, Karla can go far if she chooses wisely. But unlike Jesse, who seemed to be intentionally setting himself up with options, it felt as if Karla was thrust into a position she might not have wanted. She looks like a player who will be tugged between head and heart, which is somewhat worrisome.
8. Owen
This was a very quiet episode for Owen, which is a little surprising given he was one of the two boot options. It’s never a great sign to have your name on the chopping block, but seeing as none of his tribemates voted against him, he probably wasn’t in as much danger as it appeared. He’ll need to tighten up his relationships in the coming episodes.
9. Cassidy
There wasn’t a lot of Cassidy in this episode, so it’s hard to get an accurate gauge on her game. But we know she’s in an alliance with Lindsay and Karla and is focused on being a social butterfly. If that women’s alliance holds together, Cassidy could be set up well going forward. But if Karla ends up siding with the boys, Cassidy could easily become collateral damage.
10. JeanineÂ
Firstly, poor Jeanine. Her first time on national television and she ends up smacking her face in a challenge that leaves a gigantic bruise on her chin. But a few cuts and scrapes aren’t going to faze Jeanine. She seems like a player who is ready to roll with the punches. The only reason she is lower on my list is that she’s worried about booting Morriah, and I sense this could foreshadow that she made the wrong decision.
11. NnekaÂ
This is one of those rankings that is just a pure crapshoot. There wasn’t a lot to go on for Nneka in this episode. She seemed amiable enough and was part of an alliance conversation with Cody and Jesse. But I didn’t get any understanding of her personal strategy. Plus she’s the “older woman†in the Vesi tribe, and that’s always a lame but easy excuse for an early boot.
12. ElieÂ
I didn’t think I’d hear a Dead Kennedys reference on Survivor, so props to Elie for that. However, despite Elie’s significant amount of screen time in the premiere, I’ve got concerns. Her “strength over loyalty†strategy seems ill-fated. In a game in which women are often booted for being perceived as “weak links,†targeting Morriah off the bat was risky. It sets a precedent that might come back on Elie herself should the Baka tribe continue to lose challenges.
13. JustineÂ
This game could go one of two ways for Justine: She will prove to be the cunning and manipulative salesperson Cody pegged her as and make a deep run, or she will be targeted early because of that perception and sent packing before she has a chance to get going. I don’t see any in-between. And right now, I’m leaning toward the latter, just based on the fact that others were already suspicious of her relationship with Noelle.
14. GeoÂ
I feel bad about ranking Geo so low, because I liked what I saw of him in the premiere. He seems like a decent guy with a touching backstory. However, he was lagging in the first challenge and appeared to be somewhat on the outs at camp, other than his bonding moment with Karla. Perhaps he will blossom as he settles into the game, but he might not get that chance should Coco lose a challenge soon.
15. CodyÂ
I’ve heard of living on the edge, but “LIVIN’†on the butt cheek? Cody’s ass tattoo sums him up as a character. He’s a funny, kooky guy who will bring entertainment for as long as he’s on our TVs. How long he will be on our TVs? That’s the question. He did show some smarts with his flint trick that helped clinch Vesi the first reward challenge. But he has a big personality that could grate on others after a few days of starving in the jungle.
16. DwightÂ
Damn it, Dwight! Unlike other superfans who played it slow, Dwight quickly got stuck in the experience. He volunteered to take the boat trip and risked his vote, which he wound up losing. It’s safe to say he quickly put an unnecessary target on his back. It’s early days and he can turn things around, so long as Vesi avoids Tribal Council. But if his tribe loses immunity soon, he could be in danger.
17. GablerÂ
I’m sure Gabler is a lovely guy; anyone that looks after goats has to be, surely? But his gameplay in the premiere was … yikes. Sure, he earned himself an idol, but he went and told his entire tribe about it. Perhaps that was unavoidable. What was avoidable was his post-challenge paranoia, during which he declared he wasn’t going to play his idol but would take his “Shot in the Dark.†It was unnecessary bargaining born out of guilt for losing the challenge. Thankfully, his tribemates talked him down. But even with an idol still valid for his next Tribal, this display did not fill me with hope for Gabler’s longevity in this game.