Every week between now and January 24, when the Academy Award nominations are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes of this year’s Oscars race. In our “Oscar Futures†column, we’ll share insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination. (And if you feel confident that you know who’s going to prevail throughout awards season and at the Oscars, sign up now for Vulture’s Movies Fantasy League.)
Best Picture
The Fabelmans
So far, so good for the early front-runner. Steven Spielberg’s autobiographical time-capsule hits theaters in New York and L.A. this weekend on the back of a starry AFI Fest relaunch and a rapturous Academy screening that The Playlist’s Greg Ellwood named “the best-attended of the 2023 season so far.†While Spielberg’s self-mythologization may risk schmaltz, even skeptics are admitting the magic of his cinematic memoir. “He will always err on the side of entertainment,†says Manohla Dargis. “I’ve chafed against that impulse of his, at times, even while falling for his movies. But it’s what he does, beautifully.†Depressingly, recent news events have given the film a political tinge it seemed to lack at TIFF: As a few high-profile names have begun to spout anti-Semitic conspiracy theories, Spielberg’s recollection of his own youthful harassment makes these mid-century memories feel timelier.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Like the royal family of Wakanda, pundits are divided on whether the star-crossed superhero sequel can crack the Best Picture race. Expert voices like Anne Thompson are sticking with it, but I’ve also heard chatter that lines up with the emerging critical consensus: Glad they pulled it off, don’t think it’s Best Picture-worthy. Voters want their blockbusters to feel like more than “just another superhero movie,†and that’s precisely what the reviews are pegging Wakanda Forever as.
Current Predix
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale, Women Talking
Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro, Pinocchio
Del Toro’s animated passion project  — not to be confused with Robert Zemeckis’s monstrosity from September — was this year’s glitzy AFI Fest premiere, and the reception it received there was anything but wooden. “This is a Pinocchio that credits its young audience with eminently grown-up taste and intelligence,†says Guy Lodge. Netflix is mounting a full-court press in the hopes that the film can compete outside the confines of Animated Feature, and its greatest weapon may be Del Toro’s gregarious presence on the circuit, which helped Nightmare Alley outperform expectations last season. Another GDT directing nom is probably a long shot (no animated film has ever made it in), but I’ve noticed Pinocchio popping up on a few Picture and Screenplay shortlists.
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
He probably should have gotten it for Creed. But since that didn’t happen, Coogler’s chance at Academy recognition will have to wait until his Marvel sojourn is over. I can’t wait to see what happens when he brings his staggering talent to something a little more personal.
Current Predix
Todd Field, Tár; Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin; Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness; Sarah Polley, Women Talking; Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Best Actor
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
He lives! A24 has been extremely careful with its Great White Best Actor Hope, cosseting it away on the festival circuit and refusing to hand the internet any kindling that could ignite a possible backlash. The studio finally released a trailer this week, which foregrounds The Whale’s emotional impact while playing hide-and-seek with Fraser’s transformation into a 600-pound shut-in. I wasn’t among those left blubbering by Darren Aronofsky’s film at TIFF, but I’ve heard enough reports of tear-filled festival screenings that I’ve moved The Whale back into my Best Picture predictions.
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Playing Spielberg’s teenage avatar, LaBelle is not just doing the adorable-moppet thing familiar from recent movie memoirs. He’s tasked with navigating some tricky terrain, dealing with emotions he has no idea how to articulate except through celluloid. The 19-year-old Canadian is a full decade younger than Austin Butler, the other fresh face in this race, but if everything breaks the Fabelmans’ way, LaBelle could pick off one of this season’s elder statesmen, many of whom will be repping films with far lower profiles.
Current Predix
Austin Butler, Elvis; Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin; Brendan Fraser, The Whale; Hugh Jackman, The Son; Bill Nighy, Living
Best Actress
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
As Spielberg’s force-of-nature mother, Williams almost certainly would have won Supporting Actress, but she chose to brave the Best Actress gauntlet instead, creating an apparent three-way faceoff with Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh. Since she’s a co-lead, Williams doesn’t carry the film’s POV in quite the same way as her rivals, but it’ll help that she’s playing a much warmer maternal figure. A stifled artist, Mitzi Fabelman is the big gushing heart of her family, and the four-time nominee plays her like an open wound. “Williams lets us see the sadness seeping through the performative effervescence,†raves Leonard Maltin, who calls it a “captivating, career-best performance.†Get your bets in now: This race is going to be fun.
Letitia Wright, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Wright takes center stage after the death of Chadwick Boseman, though the weight of the tragedy means she gets little chance to display the comic chops that were so winning in Black Panther. “Wright is a talented actress with the ability to emotionally shoulder a movie when given good material,†says critic Robert Daniels. “But she is constantly working against the script here,†battling “a cringy cameo,†“clunky jokes,†and “an ending that feels all-too-neat.â€
Current Predix
Cate Blanchett, Tár; Olivia Colman, Empire of Light; Danielle Deadwyler, Till; Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans; Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actor
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Hirsch famously received an impromptu standing ovation at the end of his two-scene appearance during The Fabelmans’ TIFF premiere. As an aged relative with some passionate feelings about how to reconcile the competing demands of art and family, he delivers a ripping monologue that might as well be the movie’s mission statement. (Though Anthony Lane issues a dissent, saying he “could have done without†the cameo.) Hirsch’s performance rivals Judi Dench’s in Shakespeare in Love for brevity, but it packs so much punch that I think the 87-year-old will have an edge over co-stars with more screen time. As Oscar history teaches us, you should never bet against a scruffy old guy in Best Supporting Actor.
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
It’s a tricky task, playing boring. Dano has the part of Spielberg’s computer-genius father, the “science†half of the film’s genetic metaphor for the movies: “a colorless personality who Dano makes work even when he’s overshadowed,†says Dargis. While his quiet, inward performance is what The Fabelmans needs, it doesn’t have the spark of the film’s other contenders. I’ve got him in now, but he’s at risk of losing his seat to flashier contenders coming down the pike.
Current Predix
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans; Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin; Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Basset gets more to do in Wakanda Forever than she did in its predecessor, and critics have singled her out as giving the film’s best performance. As our own Angelica Jade Bastién writes, she brings a “complex characterization that is otherwise sparse — as a stunning moment in the kingdom’s throne room, shot through with anger and deep longing, demonstrates.†Still, if Michael B. Jordan couldn’t earn a nom for his fiery work in the original Black Panther, I’m skeptical anyone else will be able to make it this year.
Hong Chau, The Whale
Chau’s kindhearted nurse makes a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it appearance in the Whale trailer, but next weekend will bring more eyeballs on the ubiquitous character actress: She’s got a juicy supporting part in The Menu, playing a character whose affect is almost the exact opposite as her work in The Whale. As Darren Aronofsky’s film continues to pick up audience awards at regional festivals, I keep hearing Chau floated as a serious contender in this race.
Current Predix
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking; Hong Chau, The Whale; Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin; Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Claire Foy, Women Talking