Every week between now and January 23, 2024, when the winners of the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscars race. In our Oscar Futures column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
Best Picture
Killers of the Flower Moon
Is it a western, a gangster movie, or, as our own Bilge Ebiri argues, a marital drama? Whatever the genre, consensus is that Martin Scorsese’s latest is another vital work in the director’s lion-in-winter era, with Slate raving that Killers is “a new kind of Scorsese masterpiece.†The film’s historic sweep and thematic heft bode well for recognition all across the ballot, though there are concerns this august Osage downer could suffer the same fate as The Irishman, which infamously went zero for ten. Killers at least has the advantage of coming from Apple, a streamer that’s proven it can run the Best Picture gauntlet.
The Bikeriders
In the latest ripple effect from the SAG strike, distributor New Regency pulled Jeff Nichols’s biker flick from its December 1 release date. The well-received drama hasn’t officially been pushed to next year, and THR says it still plans to qualify for this season. But as they say, there aren’t that many shopping days until Christmas.
Current Predix
Anatomy of a Fall, American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Best Director
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Scorsese has been indefatigable on the trail, giving career-spanning interviews, starring in TikToks, even sitting down with Timothée Chalamet. He’s mentioned his ambivalent relationship with the Academy, telling GQ he never felt “part of the industry†enough to be one of their faves. Nevertheless, Killers’ urgent and empathetic excavation of American history should make it a high-level contender. I’d be shocked if he was overlooked.
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Can Triet’s slippery courtroom drama — less a whodunit than a didshedoit — stay in the race after being snubbed by France’s selection committee? That was enough to doom Portrait of a Lady on Fire, but the past few years have been kinder to unselected international features: Penélope Cruz still got in for Parallel Mothers and RRR even won a trophy. Neon has done a good job building buzz for the Palme d’Or winner, and we know this branch loves an international auteur.
Current Predix
Greta Gerwig, Barbie; Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Killers breaks new ground for Leo: For the first time, a woman falls in love with him onscreen and you think, What does she see in him? Scorsese reshaped the film’s narrative around DiCaprio’s Ernest Burkhart, who makes for an unconventional lead — a spineless factotum, alternately loving and loathsome. Reviews for his performance have been less glowing than for the film as a whole (ours says Ernest “shrinks the more he’s onscreenâ€) but when DiCaprio toplines a Best Picture nominee, he usually gets nominated.
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Cord Jefferson’s racial satire has jumped up the most-anticipated lists since winning the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, a prize that traditionally heralds a Best Picture nomination. To get there, the film will have to compete somewhere above-the-line, and while Adapted Screenplay is probably the safest bet, don’t count out Wright. I suspect plenty of voters out there would love to hand the esteemed veteran his first career nomination. The trailer, out this week, gives a taste of his comic exasperation.
Current Predix
Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer; Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
The much-ballyhooed rewrite of Killers sought to center the Osage point of view, and in that spirit Gladstone is running in lead, rather than supporting. How well the film accomplishes that goal will be a discussion topic all season long, especially in regards to her Oscar placement. As Mollie, an Osage woman beset by tragedy, she’s every bit DiCaprio’s match — open where he is closed, steady while he is wavering. However, her character is sidelined for much of the final act, as Scorsese turns his focus to Ernest’s inner torment. While she’ll be up against actresses who shoulder a heavier narrative burden, Gladstone should not be underestimated. As Justin Chang puts it, “she’s the faint-flickering beam of light in a story of near-impenetrable darkness.â€
Annette Bening, Nyad
Move over, Lydia Tár: There’s a new brittle lesbian in the Best Actress race. The best thing about Nyad, which opens limited today before streaming on Netflix, is how the biopic paints its subject as an insufferable egomaniac, though the film’s slightly meh festival reception indicates a tough swim ahead for the woman once heralded as a potential frontrunner. There’s a piquant interplay between subject and performer here — like Diana Nyad, the four-time nominee is chasing an accomplishment that’s always eluded her — but can that narrative still make waves without Bening herself on the trail?
Current Predix
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall; Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Margot Robbie, Barbie; Emma Stone, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Here’s a surprise: One of cinema’s most famous New Yorkers does a Texas accent in Killers. Here’s another: It’s utterly convincing. Continuing where he and Scorsese left off in The Irishman, De Niro’s devilish schemer is a master class in self-deception. He wears evil so lightly that he seems unaware of any conflict between murder and magnanimity. This category was already stacked with winning performances from apparent Best Picture heavyweights, and it just got one more.
Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon
After Killers was reconfigured, Plemons replaced DiCaprio in the role of Tom White, the federal agent who cracks the Osage killings. While White is the main character of David Grann’s book, he’s given far less to do in the film, which reveals the culprits early on. Plemons is good as always, but he never gets the kind of showcase scene that fueled his Power of the Dog bid.
Current Predix
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling, Barbie; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actress
Jodie Foster, Nyad
The two-time Oscar winner is overqualified to play the sidekick in a sports biopic, but Nyad has good reason for bringing in a ringer. Its heroine is such a pill that Foster becomes the audience surrogate by default. Her earthy performance as coach/best friend Bonnie Stoll is the film’s emotional core. (To say nothing of her envy-inducing abdominal core, the No. 1 topic of discussion after Nyad’s TIFF premiere.) Due to the SAG strike, the real Stoll has become the film’s chief campaigner, which should help Foster stick around in voters’ minds.
Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon
Kirby was just confirmed to be running in supporting for Ridley Scott’s historical epic, and the film’s new trailer gives her a couple of eye-catching moments. This category feels wide open, to the point where I struggled to name five plausible nominees from what I’ve seen. Could Kirby be the one to shake it up?
Current Predix
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer; Viola Davis, Air; Jodie Foster, Nyad; Julianne Moore, May December; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers