Every week between now and January 23, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscars race. In our “Oscar Futures†column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
Best Picture
Barbie
Is Barbie an original screenplay or an adaptation? The comedy tried to campaign in Original, arguing that Adapted Screenplay is only for movies based on previously written material, not dolls. But the Academy ruled this week that Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s screenplay belongs in Adapted since the script is built around characters created by Mattel. Unfortunately, this is not just an academic question. In Original, Barbie had a strong shot at the gold; in Adapted, it faces a murderers’ row of Best Picture rivals, including Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon. For a film that’s hoping to compete for the ultimate Oscar, losing its best chance at an above-the-line trophy will sting.
The Holdovers
With Barbie out, what becomes the new front-runner in Original Screenplay? You can make a case for Anatomy of a Fall or Past Lives benefiting from the Academy’s spread-the-wealth impulse, as neither are expected to take home another award. But the odds-on favorite will be the garrulous, tightly constructed The Holdovers. Alexander Payne’s films have twice taken the Adapted Screenplay prize, and though Payne doesn’t have a writing credit on this one, as reader Kyle LeRoy notes, you can imagine more than a few Academy members thinking he does.
Current Predix
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
You don’t think of Christopher Nolan as a campaign charmer in the Guillermo Del Toro mold, but he was awfully winning at Wednesday’s New York Film Critics Circle Awards dinner, dishing about a Peloton instructor who hated one of his movies. Did someone put an extra spot of honey in his tea, or is this just the kind of confidence being the front-runner brings?
J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow
When the Chilean plane-crash drama performed surprisingly well at the Oscar shortlists, pundits wondered whether we were in for a repeat of the All Quiet on the Western Front surge: Another year, another harrowing foreign-language contender from Netflix! However, the war film was also a huge presence on last year’s BAFTA longlists, and this year’s longlists made it clear that Society of the Snow is no All Quiet. Spain’s Oscar submission hit only a single category: Film Not in the English Language. We should probably cool our jets on this one.
Current Predix
Greta Gerwig, Barbie; Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Actor
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
The other casualty of Barbie’s screenplay shake-up was All of Us Strangers, which now looks likely to be bumped from the Adapted Screenplay race. However, as supporters hoped, BAFTA did indeed provide a lifeline for Andrew Haigh’s film. While you have to be an Oppenheimer-level genius to decode the process by which the Brits determine their nominations, ten longlist appearances is still an impressive showing — particularly as Strangers made it into Best Film, which is voted on by the entire membership. Scott cracked the Actor longlist, and there’s a chance the Academy’s sizable British contingent could rally around him come nomination time.
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Of our two mid-century, partially black-and-white biopics, why has Maestro become this season’s Oscar villain rather than Oppenheimer? Regardless, the online backlash for Bradley Cooper’s film hasn’t reached industry voters, who are still piling Maestro with laurels befitting a major contender: nominations from the costume-designers and makeup-artists guilds and 12 spots at the BAFTA longlists. So if you haven’t yet fired off a cutting tweet about Maestro, there’s still plenty of time.
Current Predix
Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer; Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Best Actress
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Blitz Bazawule’s musical debuted well with an $18 million Christmas haul, the second highest of all time, but couldn’t sustain those numbers over the rest of the festive period. Is a merely decent opening enough for a middle-of-the-road contender whose awards fortunes will live and die by its box office? That Purple’s colorful ensembles were snubbed at the Costume Designers Guild nominations suggests the film hasn’t broken out the way Warner Bros. intended, and in a competitive Actress race, it’s looking likely that Barrino will be left out in the cold. At least she made the BAFTA longlist, though!
Natalie Portman, May December
That The Color Purple also underperformed at the BAFTA longlists is not surprising: One reason BAFTA has a complicated nomination process is to atone for its penchant for ignoring Black stories. But it was also striking to see the lack of love for May December, which showed up only in Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay. Todd Haynes’s film is the kind of buzzy, of-the-moment contender the BAFTAs pride themselves on recognizing, so I wonder if overseas voters who were less familiar with the Mary Kay Letourneau story simply couldn’t jibe with it. Whatever the reason, the Portman snub hurts, but not as bad as the one for her co-star …
Current Predix
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; Greta Lee, Past Lives; Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Margot Robbie, Barbie; Emma Stone, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor
Charles Melton, May December
This week brought the first bum notes in what has been a pretty flawless meet-the-new-guy campaign. First, Vili Fualaau, the man who inspired Melton’s May December character, slammed the filmmakers for not reaching out to him. Although it does raise not-especially-flattering parallels with the film’s own themes, this kind of kerfuffle is rarely fatal. However, it was followed by Melton not making the BAFTA longlist. I still think he’s set for a nomination, but coming as pundits were beginning to entertain the idea that the 33-year-old may upset Robert Downey Jr., this is a splash of cold water.
Jacob Elordi, Saltburn
Who did the Brits recognize over Melton? Not Poor Things’ Willem Dafoe and not American Fiction’s Sterling K. Brown, each of whom had been bandied about as a possible alternative. But they did find room for Mr. Bathtub himself, one of 11 appearances for Saltburn on the BAFTA longlists. I have still never met a person who enjoyed Saltburn in real life, but here’s proof they do indeed exist.
Current Predix
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling, Barbie; Charles Melton, May December; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actress
Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
Jonathan Glazer’s Auschwitz drama remains one of this year’s more polarizing contenders, but there are signs that the industry is getting onboard with this extremely art-house film. Zone made the Oscar shortlists in Score and Sound and followed it up with a strong showing at the BAFTA longlists, where it got in up nearly everywhere it was eligible. If Glazer’s film nails down Picture, Director, and a handful of craft nominations, could Hüller, who popped up on the Brits’ Supporting Actress list, be in line for a standard-bearer acting nod?
Penélope Cruz, Ferrari
Most of the women in Ferrari are more abstract ideas than actual people, but Penélope Cruz is the exception. Even though the late-breaking racing drama failed to ignite at the holiday box office, I’d wondered whether she had a shot at a surprise Supporting Actress berth: The Spanish actress has a lot of fans in the Academy, and I’ve heard praise for her performance from voters who were otherwise down on the film. A snub from BAFTA, though, makes me think there’s no gas in this tank.
Current Predix
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; Jodie Foster, Nyad; Julianne Moore, May December; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
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