Canada’s inflation rate came in much hotter than expected, spiking up to 2.6% in February, following a 1.9% increase in January. The broad-based acceleration was driven mainly by the end of the Fed’s GST/HST tax holiday. Lower gas prices helped moderate the upward pressure.
On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 1.1% in February, following a more moderate 0.1% increase in January. The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation also heated up month-over-month, with both CPI-median and CPI-trim at 2.9%, compared to 2.7% in January. There is growing concern over the persistent acceleration of core inflation.
As expected, food prices started bouncing back after the end of the GST/HST holiday: food inflation increased 1.3%, while food purchased at restaurants decreased only 1.4%, compared to 5.1% in January. Food purchased from stores is up 2.8% year-over-year. As the GST/HST tax holiday was still in effect during the first 15 days of February, food inflation is expected to keep heating up into the next CPI announcement.
Shelter inflation provided some good news for a change, with shelter hitting the slowest pace of growth since May 2021. Mortgage interest costs (MIC) increased 9% year-over-year and rent increased 5.8%, significantly off their peaks of 31% and 9% respectively.
Gasoline prices slowed on a year-over-year basis, with a 5.1% increase in February compared to a 8.6% gain in January. On a monthly basis, gas prices rose only 0.6%. While higher refinery costs were tempered by global concerns over the impact of Trump’s tariffs, the end of the consumer carbon pricing in April will likely lead to a gradual decrease at the pump.
A note about the GST/HST holiday: Prices in the CPI are final prices, including taxes paid by consumers, meaning that CPI changed due to changes to any taxes. The federal government announced a temporary GST/HST break on certain goods from December 14, 2024, to February 15, 2025; affected goods included food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco/cannabis products, children’s clothing and footwear, diapers, car seats, toys, games, books, newspapers and Christmas trees. Approximately 10% of the all-items CPI were affected by the tax exemption.
Statistics Canada will release the March CPI figures on April 16, 2025.
Related: Inflation Rate Spikes Up To 2.6% In February