We’ve turned the page to 2025, the TV season is halfway over, and the Golden Globes and SAG Awards are having their say. Sounds to me like the perfect time to have a mid-season Emmys check-in! Back in August, just as Emmys voting was wrapping up, we took a look ahead at which of the 2024 nominees would be eligible for repeat nominations and which of the nominees from previous years would end their extended absences to line up for the 2025 ceremony. The interceding four months have given us some clarity when it comes to premiere dates for returning shows, so add to the above-linked information the following:
• Yellowjackets returns to Showtime/Paramount+ With Showtime/however you choose to watch that show on February 14.
• The White Lotus premieres its Thailand-set third season on HBO on February 16.
• The Last of Us will be back on HBO to seemingly traumatize all of us, if the trailer is any indication, in April.
• Andor returns to Disney+ with its second season on April 22.
Now that we know a little more about which shows are and are not expected to be back before the end of May, we can start sizing up which ones could be in contention for Emmy nominations. Unlike the Oscar season, the Emmys do not have a straightforward path through a set of precursors. The Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, Independent Spirit, and Gotham Awards all reflect the calendar year’s worth of television, which means, for example, that Shōgun is lapping up a bunch of awards and nominations it won’t be eligible for come Emmys time. That said, we can glean some information from these precursors to see what shows are connecting with awards voters around town. And as we break down the current state of the Emmys race in the Comedy, Drama, and Limited Series categories, we’ll take all the data points we can get.
The Comedies
If the contemporary race for comedy awards is like a human cell, then the nucleus is made up of four shows that have been recognized everywhere: Hacks, The Bear, Abbott Elementary, and Only Murders in the Building. Within this group of four, there’s a hierarchy: Only Murders is happy just to be nominated, or at least I hope it is, because it has yet to win anything against the other three shows. Abbott has won major Emmys — for writing as well as performers Quinta Brunson and Sheryl Lee Ralph — but has begun to take a back seat to the top-two shows. The Bear seemed like it was about to grab a permanent hold on the Comedy category after sweeping the Emmys and Globes in 2023, but the Hacks Emmy upset in Outstanding Comedy Series last September seems to have reset the balance. Assuming Hacks returns in May, as it reliably has in the past, The Bear will be going up against the reigning champ armed with a divisive third season.
That leaves four open slots in Outstanding Comedy, one of which will likely be filled by the final season of What We Do in the Shadows, a three-time nominee in that category in 2020, 2022, and 2024. Palm Royale, a 2024 nominee, has been renewed for a second season, but Apple TV+ has made no indication that it will return by May. Both 2023 nominee Wednesday and 2023 should-have-been-a-nominee Poker Face are currently “TBA 2025” returnees, so don’t count on them. However, if any or all of these three do end up making the nomination cutoff date, they’ll be serious contenders.
Taking a look at the precursor awards, the most likely new show to get nominated is Netflix’s Nobody Wants This, which was nominated for three Golden Globes and three Critics Choice Awards and was on the AFI list of best TV shows of the year.
One area of the comedy landscape where people seem to be treading lightly is FX’s English Teacher, which got great reviews, showed up on a bunch of top-ten lists, and got nominations from the Critics Choice and Independent Spirit Awards. It is an undeniably funny show. But recent allegations of sexual assault against creator and star Brian Jordan Alvarez might have awards voters avoiding the show completely.
One sentimental favorite among many this year will be the final season of HBO’s Somebody Somewhere, which has always been underappreciated in the grand scheme of things but fiercely loved and respected by its devoted audience. While the show enjoyed an uptick of attention over its final episodes, the Emmys hardly ever pick up shows they’ve previously ignored for final-season recognition. Prove me wrong, Emmys! Prove me wrong!
It’s tough to try and glean which upcoming comedies will catch on with Emmy voters, but it’ll be worth keeping an eye on this handful of shows as they premiere:
➼ The Studio: The new series from producers Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg stars Rogen as the head of a fictional movie studio at a — let’s say challenging time for movie studios. Emmy faves Catherine O’Hara and Kathryn Hahn co-star, alongside a cavalcade of cameo-ing celebs (Martin Scorsese, Charlize Theron, and Anthony Mackie all show up to hurl insults at Rogen’s character in the trailer). A project of this scope and star power will have a lot of attention on it when it debuts on Apple TV+ on March 26, but that brings with it a lot of expectation as well. (Rogen’s last Apple TV+ comedy, Platonic, was wildly underrated and unrewarded by the Emmys, so I say they owe him.)
➼ Government Cheese: Prolific music-video director Paul Hunter (“Hollaback Girl,” “Lady Marmalade,” “Me Against the Music”) and Aeysha Carr co-created what Apple TV+ is calling a “surrealist comedy” set in 1969 in the San Fernando Valley. David Oyelowo plays a man released from prison trying to reestablish his family life amid instances of what seems like divine intervention. This could submit as a comedy or as a limited series, depending on how flexible Apple wants to be about it when it ends.
➼ Dying for Sex: Another well-pedigreed series, this one for FX, co-created by Elizabeth Meriwether (New Girl, The Dropout) and Kim Rosenstock, and starring Michelle Williams and Jenny Slate. It follows a woman diagnosed with breast cancer who ends her 15-year marriage to explore her sexuality and is based on the podcast of the same name. Are we still doing TV shows based on podcasts? Based on the talent involved, this could be a good one.
➼ Chad Powers: Glen Powell and Michael Waldron (Loki) co-created this series that seems like a riff on Ted Lasso in a few key ways, not least of which being that it originated as an Eli Manning bit on ESPN. Powell plays a quarterback whose career has hit the skids, so he disguises himself as “Chad Powers” and joins a struggling southern football team. Powell was just recently a Golden Globe nominee for Hit Man and seems ready to reap the rewards of being handsome, funny, and successful all at the same time.
➼ Running Point: Mindy Kaling produces this show where Kate Hudson essentially inherits the family-owned basketball team? With Drew Tarver, Brenda Song, Max Greenfield, and Chet Hanks in the supporting cast? I’m sold. Now go pitch all the folks who actually vote for the Emmys.
Outstanding Comedy Series nominees if the year ended right now: Abbott Elementary, Bad Monkey, The Bear, A Man on the Inside, Nobody Wants This, Only Murders in the Building, Shrinking, What We Do in the Shadows
Outstanding Comedy Series nominees including likely spring premieres: Abbott Elementary, The Bear, Dying for Sex, Hacks, Nobody Wants This, Only Murders in the Building, The Studio, What We Do in the Shadows
The Dramas
Given how long it takes for today’s high-production-value drama series to go through postproduction, we seem to have found ourselves in a two-year cycle when it comes to the Emmys. Last year’s crop of nominees — including Shōgun, Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Fallout, and 3 Body Problem — are all expected to return well after this current Emmy season is finished, some of them not until 2026. Even The Morning Show and The Gilded Age, which are well into production on their new seasons, might not make the eligibility window for 2025. Apple TV+’s Slow Horses is the only 2024 Outstanding Drama nominee that’s sure to be back in the mix since it already aired its newest season. Meanwhile, the 2023 Emmy-nominated dramas are all returning over the next few months and, like a bunch of hatching cicadas, are poised to make a lot of noise.
Of the eight available Outstanding Drama slots, you can probably pencil Slow Horses into one of them. Then there are the returning behemoths, headlined by HBO’s one-two punch of The White Lotus season three in February and The Last of Us season two in April. Disney+’s Andor, a nominee in 2023, returns on April 22, hopefully to live up to the high expectations set by season one. Showtime’s Yellowjackets was also a nominee in 2023, though after the mixed reception to that second season, it does feel like popular opinion on that show has taken a downward turn and momentum is against it. A rebound third season is pretty much required to get Yellowjackets another Drama Series nomination. And speaking of shows whose most recent season disappointed fans and critics, House of the Dragon will continue to operate from under the massive Emmy shadow of its predecessor, Game of Thrones.
Then there are the two Netflix shows that were last nominated in 2022: Stranger Things wrapped filming in December but is not expected to return before the eligibility window closes in May, so we can stick a pin in it until Emmys 2026. Meanwhile, Squid Game returned after three years away this past December to big viewership numbers but rather mixed reviews. Wherever you stand on the quality of this latest batch of episodes, it’s hard to deny that the fervor around the show is not what it once was. That could change as we get closer to Emmy voting, with more people catching up on the show, and with Netflix putting its promotional muscle behind it, it’ll still be in contention. But a return to its 2022 Emmys showing — 14 nominations and six wins — seems like a lofty goal.
Apple TV+ had a breakthrough year at the Emmys last year, pulling in 70 nominations (its best showing ever) and nine wins. This sets the stage perfectly for the return of Apple’s first ever Drama Series nominee, Severance. The psychological sci-fi thriller/workplace drama picked up 14 nominations and two wins back in 2022, and more importantly, it became one of the few Apple series to really enter the popular discourse. The expectations for season two are high, but if the show can meet them, Emmy voters will almost certainly be back in the show’s corner.
The year-end awards did show favor to a handful of new and second-year shows that should at least be given consideration. Peacock’s The Day of the Jackal was probably the most widely nominated, with Best Drama Series nods from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, as well as a SAG nomination for Best Cast. Netflix’s The Diplomat, which dropped its second season this past October, got those same three nominations as well. Bridgerton was also recognized by the SAG Awards with a Best Cast nomination, though it should be noted that for Emmy purposes, only the back half of the most recent season will be eligible, since the first four episodes were released in time for Emmys 2024.
Other shows got nominated for performances but not necessarily as Best Drama. The Globes recognized Jake Gyllenhaal for Apple TV+’s Presumed Innocent, while the Independent Spirit Awards nominated his onscreen wife, Ruth Negga. The Globes also went for Billy Bob Thornton in Landman, who would buck the trend of Taylor Sheridan shows getting ignored by the Emmys if he wound up in contention. Black Doves’s Keira Knightley got a Globes nomination, and her co-star Ben Whishaw is a former Emmy winner for A Very English Scandal, both good indicators that the show could wind up on the Emmy radar. Kathy Bates, whose 14 career Emmy nominations and two wins have come in six different categories, was Globe-nominated for the new Matlock, but before you get too excited for her Emmy chances, it’s worth remembering that the original Matlock only ever got four nominations, all for its musical score.
A handful of shows hoping Emmy voters will change their tune and recognize them after previously ignoring them include HBO’s Industry (a critics’ fave but fighting an uphill battle for in-house favor with shows like The White Lotus and The Last of Us), AMC’s Interview With the Vampire, and the final season of Paramount+’s Evil. And while FX’s The Old Man did get Jeff Bridges a Lead Actor nomination a couple years ago, its relatively quiet presence in the current TV discourse means that show is probably also fighting an uphill battle for recognition.
As for new dramas in these last few months of eligibility:
→ Max just premiered its new medical drama The Pitt, starring Noah Wyle, and if enough Emmy voters get an old ER vibe off of that, there could be some nominations in its future.
→ Your Friends and Neighbors comes from star/executive producer Jon Hamm and creator Jonathan Tropper (Cinemax’s Banshee and Warrior). Hamm plays a hedge-fund manager who gets canned and resorts to criminal means to maintain his lifestyle. Hedge-fund managers breaking the law for spring? Groundbreaking. Apple TV+ premieres the show on April 11.
→ Also on Apple, in May, is the sci-fi series Murderbot, starring Emmy-winner Alexander Skarsgård as … a murderbot. The series comes from executive producers Chris and Paul Weitz, who have never gotten Emmy recognition, though they do share an Oscar nomination for writing 2002’s About a Boy.
→ The Residence is the next Shondaland show for Netflix, about a murder investigation at the White House. No Olivia Pope this time, but Uzo Aduba (three-time Emmy winner) is on the case.
Outstanding Drama Series nominees if the year ended right now: Black Doves, The Day of the Jackal, House of the Dragon, Industry, Presumed Innocent, Severance, Slow Horses, Squid Game
Outstanding Drama Series nominees including spring premieres: Andor, The Day of the Jackal, The Last of Us, Severance, Slow Horses, Squid Game, The White Lotus, Your Friends and Neighbors
Limited Series
The limited series require less math, since none of them are returning series. But because none of them are returning series, we have no idea whether Emmy voters will like them or not. The ground is always shifting in this category; remember last spring when Shōgun was poised to dominate the Limited Series categories, before FX announced the show would return for another season, thus transforming it into a drama? Will a show like The Penguin follow suit? Drama is incredibly crowded this year, so I’d wager HBO will wait to announce that second season until after Emmy nominations.
The Penguin’s success at the Golden Globes earlier this month, where Colin Farrell was the only winner among the TV awards that weren’t in some way a carryover from the 2024 Emmys, is a good indicator that it will be a big Emmy contender. Perhaps TV Academy voters will recognize Cristin Milioti’s performance as worthy of a statue. The Alfonso Cuaron–produced Disclaimer was also Globe-nominated, as was the Ryan Murphy–produced Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story. The chasm between high- and lowbrow between those two shows notwithstanding, they should both be considered possibilities: The pedigree for Disclaimer and its star, Cate Blanchett, is just too strong, while the Emmys have a historical fondness for Ryan Murphy’s shows.
The Globes also nominated the performances of Kathryn Hahn in Agatha All Along (the Indie Spirits went one better and also nominated Patti LuPone) and Diego Luna in La Maquina. Both the Spirits and the Critics Choice nominated Betty Gilpin in Starz’s Three Women. Critics Choice also threw a nod to Liev Schreiber in The Perfect Couple, a show that had better get an Outstanding Choreography nomination or we riot. Of these shows, I’d keep a particular eye on Agatha, considering its predecessor, WandaVision, hauled in 23 nominations in 2021.
One show I’m surprised didn’t turn up anywhere was FX’s Say Nothing, the nine-episode series about the Troubles in Northern Ireland. Now that the Limited Series category is no longer cluttered with shows from the first half of 2024, it’ll be interesting to see if that series — or Apple TV+’s Lady in the Lake, in which Natalie Portman tries to solve a pair of murders — can capture those vacated slots.
The spring is also expecting a bunch of limited series:
→ The just-premiered American Primeval, the new Netflix western from producer Peter Berg, whose Emmy nominations for Friday Night Lights give him some residual cache.
→ Prime Target, a thriller involving international intrigue and math, starring The White Lotus’s Leo Woodall, hits Apple TV+ on January 22.
→ Robert De Niro stars as a former American president tasked with investigating a global cyberattack in Netflix’s Zero Day. The show, from the unlikely trio of Narcos’s Eric Newman, NBC News’ Noah Oppenheim, and Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Michael Schmidt, features an all-star supporting cast including Lizzy Caplan, Jesse Plemons, Joan Allen, Connie Britton, Dan Stevens, Angela Bassett, Bill Camp, and Matthew Modine.
→ The Apple TV+ series Dope Thief, starring Brian Tyree Henry and executive-produced by Ridley Scott, premieres in March.
→ And then there’s Netflix’s as-yet-undated Sirens, from the producers and writers of Maid (a group that includes Margot Robbie) and starring The White Lotus’s Meghann Fahy as a young woman trying to get her sister out from the influential clutches of billionaire philanthropist/socialite/Svengali Julianne Moore. The cast includes Kevin Bacon, House of the Dragon’s Milly Alcock, It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia’s Glenn Howerton, and The Other Two’s Josh Segarra.
It’s tough to predict a category where most of the big hitters haven’t premiered yet, but I’d probably bet on a lineup that includes The Penguin, Disclaimer, Zero Day, Sirens, and Say Nothing.
More Gold Rush
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- Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott Are on Oscar-Nominations Duty