Every week between now and January 23, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscars race. In our Oscar Futures column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
Best Picture
The Zone of Interest
In the current political moment, it’s reasonable to wonder whether voters will have the stomach for a quotidian domestic drama set in a Nazi household, where the horrors of Auschwitz are heard but never seen. (“A grueling, even nauseous exercise in nervous tension without catharsis,†raves Adam Nayman.) Nevertheless, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association threw down the gauntlet by awarding Zone both Best Picture and Best Director last weekend, all but demanding the Academy seriously consider it. The Golden Globes followed suit with three nominations, including a key pickup in Best Drama. With Anatomy of a Fall ineligible in Oscar’s International Feature category, the U.K. submission is well placed for a run at that trophy, and an ever-more-global Academy could swing for both in the Best Picture lineup.
American Fiction
The TIFF People’s Choice Award winner deserves a gold medal in racial-politics jujitsu, skewering the industry’s white liberals in a way those same white liberals find totally disarming. As American Fiction opens in limited release, nominations for Picture, Actor, and Screenplay feel like a done deal, though the comedy’s inability to crack the latter category at the Golden Globes adds to the sense it hasn’t yet broken into the upper echelon of contenders. Still, if anything is going to pull off a Best Picture upset, it will probably be a warm, likable crowd-pleaser. Some think that’s Barbie, some think it’s The Holdovers. Could it be American Fiction instead?
Current Predix
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Best Director
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
The British filmmaker couldn’t follow up his LAFCA prize with a Globe nomination, but he hits many of this branch’s sweet spots: an international auteur who brings an unsparing point of view and uncommon visual style. (The actors were not filmed so much as surveilled.) Even if Zone falls short of Best Picture recognition, it’s a work of such clear directorial vision that a stand-alone Glazer nom could be in the cards.
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Forgive the blogger-on-blogger violence, but while Jefferson is certain to be nominated in Adapted Screenplay — and depending on how the race shakes out, could even win — the first-time director is a long shot for recognition in this category. Fiction is very funny, but visually it too often resembles a TV show.
Current Predix
Greta Gerwig, Barbie; Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Actor
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
“Is there room for two dyspeptic academics with frustrated writing careers?†asked Richard Lawson on this week’s Little Gold Men, regarding the similarities between Wright’s American Fiction character and Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers. I’d say yes, because Wright is receiving the exact kind of we’ve-never-appreciated-him-enough plaudits his campaign needs. He made the grade at both the Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations this week, and seems well on his way to a first career nomination.
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
After a tearful reception at Telluride that burned the phrase “this year’s Aftersun†into Oscar watchers’ eyelids, All of Us Strangers has struggled to reintroduce itself as Past Lives and May December gobble up attention at the artier precursors. Andrew Haigh’s film is harder to pin down — after a SAG screening this week, one audience member confessed she went into it thinking it was a horror movie — and while Scott’s performance as a lonely writer returning to the world of his youth did earn a Globe nom, a snub from Critics Choice suggests he’s seventh in a seven-man race. The film opens limited next week, so there’s still time to turn things around.
Current Predix
Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer; Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Best Actress
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Past Lives has been surging over the tastemaker phase of the season, and its five Globe nominations — including an unexpected Director nod for Celine Song — have the tiny drama looking locked in for a Best Picture slot. That doesn’t automatically equate to a Best Actress place for Lee’s understated turn, especially considering she’s going against multiple up-to-11 performances. (Recall that two years ago, none of the Oscar five were repping a Best Picture nominee.) But Lee keeps showing up, getting love from both the Globes and Critics Choice this week. At a certain point, attention must be paid.
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
In an intriguing coincidence, Hüller stars in both of this season’s buzzy international contenders, following up her turn as a writer on trial in Anatomy of a Fall by playing a Nazi housewife in Zone of Interest. The DDR-born actress has spoken eloquently about the moral obligations of that role, but while LAFCA elected to honor her for both films, her Anatomy performance was the pick at this week’s other precursors. If we believe that Lily Gladstone, Carey Mulligan, and Emma Stone make up the top tier of this race, with Margot Robbie also sitting pretty, then is it between Lee and Hüller for the final spot?
Current Predix
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; Greta Lee, Past Lives; Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Margot Robbie, Barbie; Emma Stone, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Dafoe has been getting bumped from pundits’ lists to make room for Charles Melton, but that wasn’t an issue at the Golden Globes, where the extra spot per category meant both could get in. Though he was subsequently snubbed by Critics Choice, I wouldn’t count Dafoe out: Despite his grotesque visage, he’s ultimately working in a more emotional register than co-star Mark Ruffalo, and he gets an 11 o’clock scene that should linger in voters’ memories.
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Brown is hilarious as Wright’s rapscallion brother, tossing off punch lines like an All-Star at a shoot-around. Though the Emmy winner gets a few opportunities to stretch his dramatic muscles, this is a mostly comic performance that might have needed one more meaty scene to really contend. Regardless, the Critics Choice Awards thought it was fine as is, handing Brown one of six Supporting Actor spots. If Fiction overperforms, he could be a classic nomination-morning surprise.
Current Predix
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling, Barbie; Charles Melton, May December; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actress
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Just as Foster was starting to get dropped in favor of the hot new things, the Golden Globes and Critics Choice put her back in the fast lane. She may yet be hampered by Nyad floundering, especially as Annette Bening has struggled for traction in Best Actress. Is Foster’s no-nonsense swim coach appealing enough on her own to make it in without coattails?
Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
McAdams’s performance in last spring’s Judy Blume adaptation has plenty of fans, including LAFCA, who awarded her the supporting prize jointly with Da’Vine Joy Randolph. But she couldn’t sustain the momentum, missing the cut at both the Globes and Critics Choice. It’s probably over unless SAG can throw her a Hail Mary.
Current Predix
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; Jodie Foster, Nyad; Julianne Moore, May December; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
More Oscar Futures
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- How Every Oscar Movie Can Be the Anti-Trump Movie