Every week between now and January 23, 2024, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscars race. In our Oscar Futures column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
Best Picture
Barbie
The past two Best Picture trophies have gone to a likable underdog with a big likable cast, all of whom appear to like each other. I can’t think of a contender this year that fits the bill better than Barbie, and now that the actors’ strike is resolved, all those Barbies and Kens (and Allan) can finally start pressing the flesh. Greta Gerwig’s film still faces an uphill battle to convince stodgier Academy members it’s an “Oscar movie,†but at least Barbie has the numbers to mount the mother of all charm offenses.
The Holdovers
The Holdovers has a smaller ensemble, but Paul Giamatti, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and Dominic Sessa are awfully endearing together onscreen, and I’m sure voters will cherish seeing them in a room together. (They’ll also relieve Alexander Payne, whose personal baggage could be revisited at any point this season.) Getting the actors out on the trail should only add to the warm vibes around The Holdovers, which could become the security blanket voters reach for in a season full of disheartening headlines.
Current Predix
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Best Director
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
It would be too much to say that Scorsese’s Oscar candidacy has been hurt by the end of the strike, but his time as the hardest-working guy on the press tour is drawing to a close. Team Killers will likely shift focus back to their original priority — getting Lily Gladstone a Best Actress nom — while Marty gets some much-deserved rest.
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Cooper alone among the major directors was unable to promote his film during the SAG-AFTRA strike. (Other multi-hyphenates were allowed to do press since they did not act in their own films.) I wrote last week that he had done an impressive job campaigning without campaigning, and now he’ll finally get the chance to speak up for his passion project.
Current Predix
Greta Gerwig, Barbie; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Alexander Payne, The Holdovers; Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
However, those of us who remember the A Star Is Born campaign will recall its Oscar dreams were dented in part by the impression that Cooper was an aloof figure on the trail. Might he have secretly preferred to spend the fall lurking silently in the margins, rather than glad-handing on the party circuit? After giving the performance of his life in Maestro, Cooper may have to give another one — acting like he wants to be there.
Colman Domingo, Rustin
One Netflix contender I expect to campaign with gusto is Colman Domingo, a longtime character actor making the leap to leading man. In his public appearances, Domingo exudes a warm, inviting presence, and you should never underestimate the appeal of a guy who’s worked with everybody.
Current Predix
Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer; Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Best Actress
Annette Bening, Nyad
Of the leading Best Actress hopefuls, pundits agree Bening was most hurt by not being able to campaign: She’s got a great narrative, a role with an arduous physical toll, and a film that needs all the help it can get. With Netflix’s largesse, the four-time nominee, who’s also a member of the Academy board, will hope to make her case for a career-achievement honor.
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
The German star of Anatomy of a Fall and Zone of Interest was able to raise her profile considerably during the strike. But now that contenders like Bening and May December’s Natalie Portman can enter the race, there’s a lot less room on the bubble. Will the international contingent maneuver for Hüller?
Current Predix
Annette Bening, Nyad; Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Margot Robbie, Barbie; Emma Stone, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Downey Jr.’s motor-mouthed charisma was powerful enough to upend blockbuster filmmaking for 15 years — just imagine what it can do in the Oscar race. This won’t be the actor’s first go-round on the awards carousel, though you may have forgotten that his last nomination came for Tropic Thunder, a performance unlikely to be included in many clip packages.
Charles Melton, May December
In May December, Melton goes toe-to-toe with two Best Actress winners and matches them with a subtly tuned performance. The 32-year-old, who’s best known for playing a hunk on Riverdale, might have struggled to gain ground in a field full of previous nominees. Now that he’s able to introduce himself to voters, he’s got a shot to break through.
Current Predix
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling, Barbie; Charles Melton, May December; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actress
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Foster and Bening have such a winning rapport that Netflix would be foolish not to try to sell them as a package deal. Just as Foster’s Bonnie supports her friend throughout her quixotic 110-mile swim, so too might the presence of the two-time winner, who’s playing a much warmer character, bolster Bening’s candidacy.
Viola Davis, Air
The spring release’s awards-season relaunch has been hampered by the fact that its creative principals, Ben Affleck and Matt Damon, also happen to be famous actors. Air’s most likely Oscar foothold is in supporting actress, and now Amazon can make a proper go at it, though it remains to be seen whether there’s any wind left in its sails.
Current Predix
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer; Jodie Foster, Nyad; Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers; Julianne Moore, May December; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
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