On day 14, Dwight was the first person voted out after the merge. To us, it looked like a somewhat rash decision, as if we weren’t given the whole story. It was the weakest episode of the season and where the show’s editing problems were the most apparent. Based on what we’d seen, Vesi and Baka seemed to be in a budding alliance, and Dwight was given a single confessional throughout his entire final episode. The vote against Dwight didn’t make sense at the moment, but after this week’s penultimate episode, it’s clear this move set Jesse on a game-winning path. With everyone on the tribe believing Jeanine’s idol walked out with Dwight, Jesse has kept his possession of the Ghost Idol a perfect secret. He didn’t falter or second-guess himself at any point, knowing this secret would be résumé-defining at Final Tribal Council.
Jesse and Cody have been boys from day one. Despite all other pairs being targeted, they never turned on each other, and their alliance has brought them to the final six. Cody and Jesse are so entwined in each other’s games that Jesse has held possession of Cody’s idol since the “Knowledge Is Power†came into play. But for any duo, there comes a time when a million-dollar realization is made. You can sit at FTC next to each other and argue, “This part of our plan was actually my idea,†or you can cut ties with your closest ally before they do it first. With the extra idol in his pocket, Jesse had a silenced gun locked and loaded.
I’m sure this play has been bobbling around in Jesse’s head for a while, but because Cassidy is the initial target for this week, things get a bit crazy when she wins her second immunity challenge. Beating Cody by barely a second, Cassidy saved herself, forcing Jesse’s hand. I know I’ve been itching for some more excitement from this season, and I’d go so far as to say this episode showed the best strategic playing we’ve seen since Winners at War. Going into Tribal, it seemed like anyone besides Cassidy could go home.
A lot of variables factored into Jesse’s truly perfect coup against Cody. There was complete uncertainty with five people at risk, no one even remotely targeting Gabler, and three idols in play. Setting the plan in motion was the perfect division of teams for the reward challenge. Jesse and Cody got separated, as did Cassidy and Karla. Back at camp with Jesse and Gabler, Cassidy reveals Karla’s idol; meanwhile, Karla is off at the reward crying crocodile tears to Cody and Owen about how she’s been falsely targeted for possessing an idol. When Cody comes back from the reward and finds out the truth, he immediately tells Jesse his foolproof plan to attack Karla. If he and Karla go around talking a big game about playing idols, they can try to ensure no one would waste a vote on them. The only problem with this massive bluff? It could just as easily be turned against Cody. We’ve seen overconfidence blind even the best players; add in the rush of caffeine and sugar in Cody’s brain, and he’s happily looking past Jesse scheming right under his nose.
Looking at the numbers, we see how paranoid Karla had to be to listen to Cody and vote for Owen. Owen is an unaccompanied vote, someone with his back against the wall and very few viable paths to the end. He’s smart and says he’s taking his play out of the book of Sandra: anyone but me! Working with the assumption that every player left intends to bring Gabler to FTC, one of the duos had to break up this vote — and needed Owen’s vote to do it. Owen has been a great presence all season but has had a hard time getting anyone to trust him and include him in a vote. But Jesse has been building a quiet relationship with him for this exact moment. In order to pull off the vote against Cody, Jesse has to trust Owen, Gabler, and Cassidy to move in silence. He has to be confident enough in his relationship to ensure Cody won’t use his idol. Unfortunately for Cody, this is where Karla’s paranoia helped her out.
At camp and Tribal, Cody and Karla stick with their talking points: We’re using our idols tonight, so it would be silly to waste your vote on us. But based on how emotional Karla was all episode, I think Jesse knew she would end up using her idol. Cody, on the other hand, was so deeply trusting of Jesse he even asked for his idol to show Karla and then GAVE IT BACK to Jesse! Betraying your closest ally is one thing, but to vote them out and use their own idol to do it? Absolutely delicious.
With the secret idol, Jesse could’ve still pulled off this play without the personal slight against Cody, but I think he knows this is the way to ensure Cody votes for him to win. Game respects game, and this is why Cody and Jesse’s bond has been so tight from the first day in Fiji. They were a deadly duo together, and the fact that Cody shook Jesse’s hand proves he could see how amazing this play was, even on the way out the door. Even better, with this idol still in his pocket, Jesse has guaranteed he’ll have the chance to make fire at the final four. We always knew the mystery of the hidden idol was going to give Jesse a chance to make a game-changing move, but now it’s clear it was a game-winning setup.
Idol Thoughts
• This was Jesse’s episode to shine, but Owen and Cassidy were key players in the plan. I’m sure Jesse had already realized the obvious, but I owe some credit to Gabler for being a bug in his ear, reminding him that he and Cody have played the same game and that he probably doesn’t want to argue against him in front of the jury.
• In Cassidy’s pregame bio, she says Kim Spradlin was her Survivor idol. I hope Kim is proud of Cassidy because she’s playing an amazing game as a silent assassin. She’s survived a bunch of votes against her and won two immunities so far, so I’d love to see her go toe-to-toe with Jesse at FTC.
• Someone desperately needs to write Jeff a new script for challenges. He’s walking around saying stuff like, “Puzzles look so simple when they’re finished, but assembling them is another thing entirely.†Yes, that is, in fact, how puzzles work; thank you for the insight.