The basic dynamics of the rapidly approaching debt-limit crisis in Washington are pretty clear: It’s a game of chicken between House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (who could lose his gavel to a right-wing revolt if he’s not fanatical enough about demanding big spending-cut concessions) and Democrats led by President Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. But there are some vulnerabilities on both sides. Wall Street may come down on Republicans like a ton of bricks to force them to back down lest they trigger a debt default and a market meltdown. And on the Democratic side, there is the familiar soft underbelly of the donkey represented by Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema in the Senate.
There is zero doubt that these two “centrist” troublemakers are already planning to position themselves between the two parties to milk the crisis for all it’s worth, as Politico reports:
In typical Manchin form, the West Virginian centrist is already chiding Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer for referring to the House GOP’s debt ceiling bill and its massive government spending cuts as “dead on arrival.” …
Sinema warned in a statement for this story that “playing chicken with the full faith and credit of the United States is irresponsible” given the impacts a debt default could have on her constituents.
“Both sides need to come together, put down the partisan talking points, and discuss realistic solutions to prevent default,” she said.
Neither senator, in other words, is within a mile of the Democratic party-line position that the debt limit should never, ever in a thousand years again be the subject of hostage-taking negotiations. Manchin and Sinema look much more likely to put themselves right in the middle of the deal-making with eyes out on goodies they can secure for their states and their favored constituencies. For Manchin, that’s the energy-producing sector; for Sinema, her very close friends in the hedge-fund biz.
But it’s important to understand that this particular situation isn’t just a second stanza of the 2021–22 Build Back Better saga, in which Manchin and Sinema played so frustrating and central a role. The political standing of both of these lawmakers has significantly deteriorated since then. Manchin has become extremely unpopular in West Virginia, and his 2024 nightmare opponent, Governor Jim Justice, has just announced his Senate candidacy. Meanwhile, Sinema has formally left the Democratic Party, and a second term for her will depend on a very risky independent candidacy that at present doesn’t look very promising. It’s in the interest of both of these pols to magnify their roles in brokering a debt-limit deal between the two parties, and if that means letting the country get to the brink of economic catastrophe, that’s better yet.
If Manchin and Sinema stick together, they can certainly create a choke point on the clean debt-limit extension Biden and Schumer favor and make it very difficult to muster the 60 Senate votes ultimately needed to get a final bill through the upper chamber. Indeed, they may be able to generate a bipartisan “gang” in the Senate that controls the outcome, giving McCarthy just enough destructive concessions to enable him to survive the crisis with his loose grip on the gavel intact.
It’s actually unclear whether Democrats have anything that would convince Manchin and Sinema to back off and maintain the unity of the Democratic conference. Nothing short of an abandonment of Sinema’s Democratic challenger, Ruben Gallego, would likely convince her to display loyalty to the party she has already abandoned. And Manchin, who is reportedly considering a third-party 2024 presidential run, is the ultimate wild card, though none of his options are likely to involve snuggling up to a Democratic Party and president who are even more unpopular than Manchin himself in West Virginia.
There’s nothing much more troubling than a partisan standoff over absolutely must-pass legislation with a couple of desperate and self-interested pols positioned to make or unmake deals as the country slides toward disaster. But make no mistake, Manchin and Sinema are going to exploit this situation to the hilt.
