On Saturday, Congress narrowly averted a government shutdown with only hours to spare. Now the real crisis begins.
Appearing on television on Sunday, Florida Republican Matt Gaetz made official that he would move to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy through a procedural move called a “motion to vacate.” It would require a simple majority vote to vacate the office of Speaker of the House. If successful, the House would immediately begin the process to vote on a new Speaker — a process which required 15 different ballots earlier this year.
The move forces a showdown that had been looming since McCarthy was elected to the role in January, after he finally negotiated a deal to win over 20 right-wing holdouts, including Gaetz, who were skeptical of his conservative principles. Since then, tension has been building between the House GOP’s hard right and McCarthy, who they believe hasn’t stuck to the commitments he made in January.
The upcoming drama now is twofold. The first question is how many Republicans Gaetz can rally to his cause. With the perilous Republican majority of only four members in the House, it should be relatively easy for Gaetz to gather a hardcore rump to nominally put McCarthy’s gavel at risk. But the more support Gaetz attracts, the weaker McCarthy looks — particularly if Gaetz manages to sign on Republicans who weren’t among the group of 20 who blocked McCarthy in January. But joining Gaetz is not without risk, either. McCarthy doesn’t only wield power as Speaker with the ability to reward allies and punish enemies, he also is tied to a vast network of outside political action committees that could get involved in primary elections.
The second question is what Democrats do. No matter how popular Gaetz’s insurgency is — and Gaetz is a deeply polarizing figure within the Republican conference and is loathed by many of his colleagues — McCarthy’s fate also lies in the hands of House Democrats. Like a Roman emperor watching a gladiatorial match, a simple thumbs up or thumbs down from Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries could determine his fate. If Democrats decide not to save McCarthy’s hide, all Gaetz needs is four other Republicans, along with the Democrats, to take down the Speaker.
If Democrats do save McCarthy, it will come at a cost. After all, McCarthy is a longtime Trump ally who played a key role rehabilitating the former President by visiting him at Mar-a-Lago only weeks after the January 6 attack on the Capitol. Democrats will likely want concessions, to have more control and more power in a narrowly divided house. And, of course, the more concessions McCarthy yields, the more animus he will attract from the right wing of his conference.
It will be a brutal fight. Bob Good, a Virginia Republican who has long been a McCarthy skeptic, griped to reporters on Saturday that the California Republican had only gotten worked up to protect his job, not the country. He claimed he’s only seen McCarthy get angry twice, when his ability to become or stay Speaker was threatened. “Why doesn’t he get angry about the border? Why doesn’t he get angry about the spending? Why doesn’t he get angry at Joe Biden? I have never seen that. Can we fight for something else besides just trying to be speaker at all cost?”
With a drawn out political battle looming this week, Good won’t find out what else makes Kevin McCarthy angry. After all, he will be fighting for his gavel and his political career and will need to find 217 votes to save both.
