The Third Republican Debate Could Be Brutal

These two South Carolinians may clash sharply in Miami, assuming Tim Scott qualifies for the debate. Photo: Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The third Republican presidential-candidate debate in Miami on November 8 probably won’t draw as many eyeballs as the last, and the stage will be less crowded. But what it lacks in quantity of speakers and listeners it may make up for in drama and conflict.

As the voting phase of the GOP primary approaches, candidates other than Donald Trump are hanging onto viability by their fingernails and really need to do something to help themselves and damage the others. Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are in a cage match for second place in the Iowa caucuses (the governor hopes a long-expected endorsement from Iowa governor Kim Reynolds on the evening of November 6 will save his steadily sinking ship). Tim Scott is on the edge of elimination in both the polls and the debates. It’s increasingly unclear why Trump mini-me Vivek Ramaswamy is running for president against his idol, even as he annoys Republican voters more each day. And anti-Trump stalwart Chris Christie is simply proving that somebody with absolutely no chance of winning the nomination can stick around by cornering the small market of GOP Never Trumpers.

So this is a group of candidates with little or nothing to lose, each of them desperately trying to become the one that challenges the front-runner. With Trump absent once again, it’s a recipe for intramural carnage. As it happens, Scott’s campaign manager, Jennifer Decasper, has virtually provided a script for how it might go down from her candidate’s perspective. She wrote in a memo obtained by Politico:

We’re on the cusp of the 3rd debate. And let’s be honest — we all know what will happen. Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis will devolve into a slugfest. She’ll attack him for the failing candidate that he is. He’ll attack her for being the moderate that she is. They’ll both be right …

Republican voters are sick and tired of being told they have to choose between real conservatives who share their values or electable candidates who can win the general. That is a false choice …

Does anyone actually believe that a moderate who is running as the darling of Never Trumpers can win the GOP nomination? Nikki’s canned lines can’t change the fact that her ceiling is low and getting lower. Just ask Iowa Republicans. While nearly 70% say Tim Scott is conservative, just 36% say the same about her.

What about the man who spent $100 million to drop 30 points in the polls? The only thing consistent about Ron DeSantis’ campaign is how much it’s underwhelmed. To say nothing of the obvious question: How can either candidate present a contrast with Donald Trump when he made each of their political careers? That is the conversation Tim Scott will start Wednesday night.

So DeSantis and Haley will bash each other, and Scott will bash both of them, while Christie bashes Trump and the audience boos. And I’m sure Ramaswamy will find some way to crash every conversation and insult his rivals. It has all the makings of a spectacle that only the front-runner (and Democrats) can enjoy.

There is a problem with Decasper’s scenario, however. It won’t be clear until the RNC officially resolves the question tonight as to whether Scott will even qualify for the debate, as ABC News reports:

According to Politico, Scott’s campaign claims he meets the national polling requirement based on a September poll from YouGov Blue/The Liberal Patriot that found him at 4 percent nationally. However, the screening question used for determining likely primary voters resulted in the survey including a large number of Democrats in the sample. Additionally, the primary ballot question followed a battery of questions about potential general election matchups. It’s unclear whether this poll will actually pass muster with the RNC, which has not confirmed Scott’s qualification status to ABC News. 

Once again, the RNC’s refusal to tell the world which polls it considers kosher is creating confusion and anger. But clearly the Miami stage needs Scott present to achieve its dysfunctional potential.