A recently spotted space rock that had suddenly climbed atop astronomers’ threat lists is now predicted to remain just another random rock traveling through space. On February 7, NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies calculated that the nearly 300-foot-wide asteroid 2024 YR4 had a 2.3 percent chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. But on February 24, NASA issued the equivalent of an asteroidal all clear. Below is a quick look at the teeny-tiny risk of 2024 YR4 making a deep impact on our home world.
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Are we all going to die in 2032?!
No, or at least not because of the 2024 YR4 asteroid. There is now a .004 percent chance it will impact Earth. Here’s NASA’s explanation of why it’s no longer considered a threat (for at least the next century, anyway):
As observations of the asteroid continued to be submitted to the Minor Planet Center, experts at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s (JPL’s) Center for Near-Earth Object Studies were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid’s trajectory and now have found there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century. The latest observations have further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory, and the range of possible locations the asteroid could be on December 22, 2032, has moved farther away from the Earth.
Also, while 2024 YR4 is definitely a massive rock, it’s not like a dinosaurs-killing size. Three hundred feet wide is about on par with the asteroid that exploded over Siberia in 1908 (also known as the 1908 Tunguska event). That rock blew up in the sky and flattened about 800 square miles of remote forest but obviously did not cause Armageddon (though it may have helped inspire Armageddon).
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What about the moon?
Unfortunately, the good news for Earth is not as good for our long orbiting companion Luna. NASA says there’s still a 1.7 percent chance that 2024 YR4 will impact the moon on December 22, 2032.
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So … don’t panic?
No, there are plenty of other things worth panicking about right now, but not this.
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But if it did hit Earth, that would still be really bad, right?
Yeah, an asteroid of that size hitting the planet could do a lot of localized damage and be devastating if it exploded over a populated area. It’s not planet-killer size but is a potential city killer, as one scientist explained to CBS News.
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So what’s next?
Scientists will keep tracking the asteroid, per NASA:
NASA will continue to observe asteroid 2024 YR4 with observatories funded by its Planetary Defense Coordination Office, and NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid in March to further gain insights about its size for scientific purposes.
While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity for experts at NASA and its partner institutions to test planetary defense science and notification processes.
The James Webb Space Telescope will be used to evaluate the size and trajectory of 2024 YR4, once in March and again in May. Per the European Space Agency, it should also provide a more accurate estimate of the asteroid’s size:
Webb is able to study the infrared light (heat) that 2024 YR4 emits, rather than the visible light it reflects. Infrared observations can offer a much better estimate of an asteroid’s size, as explained in an article recently published in the journal Nature, co-authored by members of ESA’s Planetary Defense Office.
Astronomers will use Webb’s MIRI instrument to get a much more precise estimate of the asteroid’s size. This, in turn, will be used by ESA, NASA, and other organizations to more confidently assess the hazard and determine any necessary response. Observations made using Webb’s NIRCam instrument will complement MIRI’s thermal data and will also provide additional measurements of the asteroid’s position once it is beyond the reach of Earth-based telescopes.
Earth will also have another close encounter with 2024 YR4 in 2028, and it will become visible to skywatchers again. At that point, astronomers will again reevaluate the risk and anyone Supreme Leader Musk has exiled to the moon can plan accordingly.
This post has been updated.
