After days of anticipation, Hurricane Milton officially made landfall Wednesday night near Siesta Key, Florida, bringing with it flash floods, powerful winds and extensive damage across the southwest portion of the state. As the storm’s eye exited the region by early Thursday morning, Floridians are beginning to access the damage as millions remain without power and even wastewater systems in some areas. Milton arrives just two weeks after the highly destructive Hurricane Helene made landfall as a Category 4 storm in Florida’s Big Bend region. That storm killed at least 227 people across six states. Below are live updates, analysis, and commentary on Milton and its aftermath.
As of Thursday evening, at least 12 deaths have been linked to the storm, including five people killed in St. Lucie County by tornadoes, according to local officials. The death toll is expected to rise.
So far, the highest recorded storm surge from Milton was 8-10 feet in Sarasota County, which is lower than the Helene brought to the state two weeks prior (up to 18 feet in one place).
More than three million customers were still without power in Florida as of Thursday afternoon, including 100 percent of Tampa’s Hillsborough County. Power had been restored to some 700,000 customers since the storm, according to Florida governor Ron DeSantis.
State authorities warned Thursday that flooding remained a problem in Hillsborough County, with water levels continuing to rise, and asked residents to stay off the roads, as many remained impassable.
The governor also reported that more than 80,000 Floridians took refuge in shelters during the storm. As of late afternoon Thursday, authorities doing search and rescue operations in 26 counties had rescued 349 people and 49 pets.
Some 235 patients were evacuated on Thursday morning from HCA Florida Largo Hospital in Largo, Florida. The acute care facility suffered major flooding from Milton (at least in its basement). 212 Florida healthcare facilities evacuated patients ahead of the storm. Many facilities remained closed on Thursday, but some apparently began reopening.
More than 10,000 federal employees are now on the ground supporting hurricane relief efforts in the aftermath of Helene and Milton, according the Homeland Security secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
According to Fitch Ratings’ estimate, Milton may have done between $30-50 billion in insured damages.
As of midday Thursday, per NBC News:
At least nine people have been confirmed dead in the storm’s aftermath. Four deaths have been confirmed in St. Lucie County on Florida’s Atlantic coast, where officials said tornadoes touched down. St. Petersburg police confirmed there were two storm-related deaths in their city. Volusia County Sheriff Michael J. Chitwood confirmed three people died in his jurisdiction.
It’s not yet fully clear how much inland (freshwater) flooding there was.
The roof of Tropicana Field, the home of the Tampa Bay Rays, was torn to shreds by Hurricane Milton overnight. Prior to the storm, Florida officials announced plans to set up a 10,000 person base camp at the St. Petersburg ballpark to “support ongoing debris operations and post-landfall responders,” per a Tuesday press release.
The St. Lucie County Sheriff’s Office in Florida announced Thursday morning that four people have died as a result of a pair of confirmed tornados that touched down in the region prior to Hurricane Milton’s landfall.
By Thursday morning, the National Hurricane Center reported that the eye of Hurricane Milton was beginning to pull away from Florida’s east coast and move out to sea.
After days of anticipation and preparation, Hurricane Milton officially made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida as a Category 3 storm Wednesday night. The storm arrived with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.
NBC News reports that Hurricane Milton’s landfall is coming earlier than first predicted:
The National Weather Service provided more information on Hurricane Milton’s current path in its 5 p.m. update:
Milton’s recent motion has been northeastward (035 degrees) at about 15 kt. Track model guidance continues to insist that the hurricane will slow down a bit and turn more to the right very soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this evening. Milton’s center is then expected to cross central Florida and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic.
Although some storm-surge estimates have decreased from earlier projections, the agency said “the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm.”
A spokesperson for FEMA took to social media to share some of the resources the agency has deployed throughout Florida, including 1,400 responders intended for search-and-rescue operations.
In its 4 p.m. update, the National Weather Service said Hurricane Milton currently has maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, placing it in the Category 3 range. “Heavy rainfall with tropical-storm force winds are spreading inland across the Florida peninsula,” the report read.
The Justice Department, the Federal Trade Commission, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued a joint statement warning consumers about potential scammers looking to take advantage in the wake of a natural disaster like Hurricane Milton. Among the scams mentioned in the statement include phony charities for hurricane victims, people posing as government officials providing disaster relief, as well as price gouging for highly needed supplies.
“To avoid scams and frauds while you’re recovering from a hurricane or another natural disaster, remember only scammers will insist you pay for services by wire transfer, gift card, payment app, cryptocurrency, or in cash. Avoid anyone who promises they can help you qualify for relief for a fee,” the statement advises.
The agencies urge people to report potential scams online at justice.gov/disastercomplaintform.
As Hurricane Milton’s path grows clearer, forecasters are making adjustments to some of their earlier predictions. The Miami Herald has some of the latest numbers on the predicted storm surge:
Wednesday afternoon, storm surge predictions for those areas dropped slightly to 9 to 13 feet for Sarasota and 8 to 12 feet for the Fort Myers and Naples area, while predictions for Tampa Bay dropped from a peak of 15 feet to 12 feet.
However, a wobble back north to Tampa was still possible. Forecasters have repeatedly warned that there will be widespread, potentially lethal coastal flooding along much of the coast — including in the Tampa Bay region — no matter where Milton comes in.
After hours of urging Florida residents within Hurricane Milton’s path to evacuate, the National Weather Service is now advising people to shelter in place as weather conditions continue to deteriorate.
Brought to you by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s hurricane hunters:
St. Petersburg mayor Ken Welch told residents during a briefing that the city is anticipating severe damage to its key infrastructure, warning of possible power outages that might not be resolved for days or even weeks “depending on the level of damage.” Officials advised that it might be necessary to shut down the city’s wastewater-treatment facilities depending on the storm surge, meaning residents could be unable to use plumbing.
“This is the reality of a direct hit from a powerful hurricane in our area. This is not a storm that we will recover from quickly. We have a long road ahead of us, but we will recover and we will rebuild together,” Welch said.
New York contributor Jeff Wise took a look at Tampa’s new normal as the region is seeing stronger hurricanes than it has historically owing to warming waters from climate change:
It’s been more than 100 years since a storm this fierce has hit Tampa, but given the climatic trends, storms that formerly registered as once-in-a-lifetime events are going to be happening a lot more frequently. Hurricane seasons are getting more intense, researchers say, and outlier storms are getting bigger. So while Milton is going to be the worst storm that anyone alive has ever seen in the area, it might not be the last of its scale to come around for a while.
Jill Trepanier, a professor of geography at Louisiana State University, has studied the kind of extreme storms that only appear every 30 years. She found that as waters have gotten warmer, the intensity of these storms has increased. “Thirty years ago, when we thought about what a typical 30-year event looked like in Tampa, it was a Category 3,” she says. “Now, it’s inching toward Category 4.”
As of 1 p.m., Hurricane Milton is still a Category 4 storm. “Tropical-storm-force winds are just offshore the west coast of Florida. Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows,” warns the National Hurricane Center in its most recent report.
After days of warning, there’s indications that a storm surge is beginning in Florida. The National Weather Service shared footage of rising water levels at the Naples Pier:
During an afternoon briefing, Tampa mayor Jane Castor said the window is closing for people to evacuate the city, citing the imminent closure of the region’s major bridges. “We’re getting very, very close to the point where people will not be able to get out,” Castor said.
Castor, who has become known for her blunt warnings throughout the preparation for Hurricane Milton, urged Tampa residents to get out as soon as possible.
“Those individuals that are making those last-minute preparations, put a move on it and go ahead and get out of those evacuation areas,” she said.
Major bridges in the Tampa Bay region are shutting down as weather conditions are beginning to turn tumultuous.
At 11 a.m., the National Weather Service issued a warning about “tornadic supercells” that have begun to move across South Florida as Hurricane Milton approaches the state.
There have been multiple confirmed tornados spotted through the region, activity that’s expected to increase in the coming hours.
Though Hurricane Milton is set to make landfall within hours, the exact location is currently in flux. The National Hurricane Center offers this explanation as part of its most recent forecast:
We would like to emphasize that Milton’s exact landfall location is not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at 12-24 hours, NHC’s track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30 nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location.
However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where landfall will occur.
The National Hurricane Center continues to issue warnings about an impending and dangerous storm surge from Hurricane Milton. Forecasters are predicting water level ranges from 8 to 12 feet to as high as 15 feet above ground level in some parts of Florida’s west-central coast.
In a briefing, Florida governor Ron DeSantis said Hurricane Milton is on track to make landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning, adding that 51 counties in the state are currently under a state of emergency.
“Hurricane Milton is still a major, very strong hurricane,” he said. “It’s currently a Category 4 hurricane with a maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. That is just a whisker shy of a Category 5.”
DeSantis said that the state has deployed 6,000 National Guard members as well as 3,000 guards from other states. “This is the largest Florida National Guard search-and-rescue mobilization in the entire history of the state of Florida,” DeSantis said.
Crews are working to clear leftover debris from Hurricane Helene before it can pose a danger after Hurricane Milton’s landfall. Untethered waste can be turned into dangerous projectiles during a storm with high winds as Milton is predicted to be. Florida governor Ron DeSantis said during a briefing that workers have removed 55,000 cubic yards of debris or 3,000 truckloads of refuse.
But remnants from the previous storm remain in many places throughout Florida.
The National Weather Service took to social media to warn Floridians about a tornado that just touched down around I-75 in Glades County.
The Miami Herald reports on Hurricane Milton’s current trajectory as it inches closer to Florida’s shores:
At 8 a.m. Wednesday, the forecast track from the National Hurricane Center was slightly south of the mouth of Tampa Bay and heavily populated communities that are extremely vulnerable to storm surge. If it remains on that path over the next 15 to 18 hours, Sarasota and coastal cities to the south, including Fort Myers Beach, which is still rebuilding from Category 4 Hurricane Ian two years again, would see the worst of the surge.
Overnight, storm surge predictions for those areas rose to 10 to 15 feet for Sarasota and Fort Myers and 8 to 12 feet for the Naples area, while predictions for Tampa Bay dropped from a peak of 15 feet to 12 feet.
At 9 a.m., the National Hurricane Center advised residents in Milton’s path that time is running out to evacuate ahead of the storm. “Now is the time to rush to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding,” its latest update read.
In an interview with ABC’s Good Morning America, FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell said she has spoken with the mayors of Tampa and St. Petersburg about their towns’ recovery from Hurricane Helene and their concerns for the incoming Hurricane Milton. She said the agency has sent in additional resources to Florida to supplement the teams mobilized by Governor Ron DeSantis.
“We have sent in additional search-and-rescue teams and assets to include airlift, high-water vehicles. We’re moving in commodities — food and water — to be able to get into areas,” Criswell said. “We’re bringing in power-assessment teams so they can quickly help assess what areas and what critical infrastructure might need power restored fast.”
Criswell advised residents that Milton will be a storm “like nothing that they have seen before” and to listen to their local officials about evacuating.
“The water is what kills people and nobody has to die from this storm. They just need to move out of the evacuation zone area into a place that it’s gonna be safe from the storm surge,” she said.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecasting that Milton will carry with it an “enhanced risk” of severe weather with a high chance of multiple tornados forming across portions of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday.
Though Hurricane Milton briefly returned to Category 5 strength on Tuesday, the system is expected to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday as a Category 4 storm with expected 135-mph winds, per the Tampa Bay Times.
In its most recent forecast, the National Hurricane Center wrote that Milton “has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”
“Nobody alive today really has any sort of frame of reference in this area for what that would actually look like,” a National Weather Service meteorologist told the Tampa Bay Times, which described the approaching storm as the region’s long-awaited “nightmare scenario.” Still, the storm has a strong chance of turning throughout the day and is expected to weaken on approach.
Hurricane Milton has returned to Category 5 strength after the storm system briefly weakened overnight. According to the National Weather Service, Milton now has a sustained wind speed of 165 mph.
The hurricane’s path appears to be trending further south than initial forecasts suggested.
After initially staying open Tuesday, Disney announced that its parks will close in stages on Wednesday with Disney’s Hollywood Studios and Disney’s Animal Kingdom theme park ceasing operations at 1 p.m. followed by Magic Kingdom and EPCOT at 2 p.m. The company said it’s likely the parks will remain closed on Thursday.
Universal Studios Florida will also shut down at 2 p.m. Wednesday, and SeaWorld Orlando plans to be closed both Wednesday and Thursday.
Georgia is also preparing for Hurricane Milton’s anticipated landfall. Governor Brian Kemp announced Tuesday afternoon that he is ordering a state of emergency for the Georgia counties in Milton’s path that will last until October 16. “I’m urging those who could be affected to prepare now!” he wrote on social media.
Tampa General Hospital, the city’s only Level 1 trauma center, is expected to remain open during Hurricane Milton. The Tampa Bay Times reports on how that facility is preparing for the storm including its famed “AquaFence” which provides protection for up to 15 feet of storm surge, the higher range of the flooding predicted for this system:
No patients or hospital employees will be on the first floor of the hospital’s main campus, Crabtree said. A 16,000-square-foot energy plan located 33 feet above sea level should provide a protected power supply in the event of power outages.
The hospital campus also has a well to supply water if the city supply fails. More than 5,000 gallons of water are stored at the hospital along with five days of supplies, including food and linens.
The Florida Department of Corrections announced that it has successfully relocated 4,636 incarcerated people in wake of the impending storm. In an update, the agency said it moved the evacuees from nearly 30 facilities to “hardened institutions” and that additional evacuations are “underway.”
Florida will be cutting off access to the state’s barrier islands Tuesday evening. Sarasota County officials announced that Casey Key, Manasota Key, Siesta Key, and Longboat Key won’t be accessible to the public as of 7 p.m. Residents will be able to leave those areas after that cutoff, but no one will be allowed in until the storm passes through the region.
Evacuation orders have resulted in a run of gas stations in Florida as Hurricane Milton is set to make landfall within hours. But CNN reports that 14.5 percent of stations in the state were without fuel Tuesday morning, citing statistics from the gas-price tracker GasBuddy.
By 2 p.m., GasBuddy raised that figure to 17.4 percent of gas stations in Florida.
That puts the storm just two mph shy of a Category 5, a sign that the system is intensifying as it draws closer to Florida.
Hurricane Milton is expected to cause an unprecedented amount of damage to the southeastern region of the U.S. Analysts tell CNBC that the historic storm could potentially cause $50 billion worth of damage, a figure that could rise as high as $150 billion if the worst possible predictions bear out:
“While too early to make insured loss estimates, a major hurricane impact in one of Florida’s most heavily populated regions could result in mid-double-digit billion dollar loss,” Jefferies equity analyst Yaron Kinar and others said in a note. “A 1-in-100 year event is estimated by some to result in $175 [billion] in losses for landfall in the Tampa region, and $70 [billion] in losses in the [Fort] Myers region.”
From veteran meteorologist John Morales with South Florida’s NBC6:
On Tuesday, Biden confirmed that he is canceling his planned trip to Germany and Angola with Hurricane Milton expected to make landfall in Florida the next day. The president said that the storm “could be one of the worst storms in 100 years” in the state, adding that the government has surged thousands of federal personnel throughout the Southeast.
“If you’re under evacuation orders, you should evacuate now,” Biden said. “You should’ve already evacuated. It’s a matter of life and death.”
As of Tuesday morning, Walt Disney World is “currently operating under normal conditions,” per a statement from the company.
“We are closely monitoring the path of the projected storm, and the safety of our Guests and Cast Members remains our top priority,” the update read.
Hurricane Milton’s approach has prompted closures all across Florida. The Sarasota County School District, whose region is currently facing evacuation orders, announced that its schools will be closed all week due to the storm with a decision about reopening to be made as soon as feasibly possible.
Airports in Tampa, Sarasota, and Clearwater will close Tuesday and will remain closed through Wednesday and Thursday. The Orlando International Airport will cease operations on Wednesday at 8 a.m.
In an interview with CNN Monday night, Tampa mayor Jane Castor issued a stark warning to her city’s residents: Leave before it’s too late. “I can say this without any dramatization whatsoever: If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die,” she said.
Castor said Tampa is at risk for a direct hit from Hurricane Milton with the chance of a storm surge far greater than the one brought by Hurricane Helene which passed through the region not long ago.
“This is something that I have never seen in my life and I can tell you that anyone who was born and raised in the Tampa Bay area has never seen anything like this before,” she said. “People need to get out.”
Though Hurricane Milton has weakened to a Category 4 in the overnight hours, it remains a significant threat to Florida. The Miami Herald describes the current state of the storm:
Though the storm’s sustained winds had eased somewhat from a near-record 180 mph, it was still packing extremely powerful 145 mph winds, and the slight slackening did not reduce Milton’s biggest threat. It was expected to push up to 15 feet of life-threatening storm surge across a huge swath of the coast, anywhere between Fort Myers Beach and Cedar Key.
From there, Milton could plow a path of record-breaking damage across the state, whipping by the theme parks of Orlando before exiting along the Space Coast. Forecasters cautioned that as Milton’s wind speed falls, likely to a Category 3 before landfall sometime late Wednesday or early Thursday, the small storm will expand its size, sweeping its damaging winds across a broader area.
Florida governor Ron DeSantis spoke from Tallahassee Tuesday morning, providing a briefing on the incoming storm. “Basically the entire peninsula portion of Florida is under some type of either a watch or a warning,” he said.
DeSantis said that 8,000 National Guard members have been activated prior to landfall and that 37,000 linemen are “in or en route to the state of Florida.” The governor advised residents that the path of Hurricane Milton, which weakened to a Category 4 overnight, is subject to change and urged people to start making plans for their evacuation.
“You do have time to get to a shelter. You have time to evacuate further than that if that’s what you want, but time is running out,” DeSantis said.
He continued, “There’s no guarantee what the weather’s going to be like starting Wednesday morning. You may have a window where it may be safe, but you may not,” he said. “So use today as your day to finalize and execute the plan that is going to protect you and your family.”
The Miami Herald’s Alex Harris dug into the physics:
No matter how perfect conditions may get, a hurricane can only get so strong. At least that’s what the science says. Milton, which blew up into a Category 5 hurricane Monday and kept going, is pushing the boundaries, approaching what’s known among hurricane experts as the Maximum Potential Intensity or MPI. When meteorologists pull out that measure, you know the hurricane is a monster — and Milton is that. At 5 p.m., the National Hurricane Center said its sustained winds had hit 180 mph. How strong can it get? The next day or so will tell.
The top-end hurricane is feeding on a seemingly bottomless buffet of record or near-record hot waters in the Gulf of Mexico, which weren’t cooled much by the passage of Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago. It has friendly winds and not much land in sight, unless it edges closer to the northern end of the Yucatan peninsula.
How Milton spent Monday:
The potential storm surge, if Milton stays on track:
And here’s the housing density in the storm’s possible path:
Per their latest key messages on Milton:
The NHC also warns that “If Milton stays on its course this will be the most powerful hurricane to hit Tampa Bay in over 100 years. No one in the area has ever experience a hurricane this strong before.”
Milton is currently about 700 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida, over the Gulf of Mexico, with Category 5 winds of over 175 miles per hour. It’s now expected to travel across the Gulf and make landfall on Florida’s western coast sometime Wednesday night, though its precise path is not yet clear. Milton is expected to lose strength between now and then but expand in size.
Widespread evacuations are expected on Florida’s Gulf Coast, where Milton could produce a devastating storm surge of over ten feet in some areas. There is also the threat of inland flooding, as Milton may dump another six to eight inches of rain across much of the already waterlogged state, with local rainfall amounts as high as 15 inches. Heavy rainfall is also expected in parts of Florida ahead of the storm.
At Eye on the Storm, meteorologist Jeff Masters notes that Tampa–St. Petersburg has been rated the most vulnerable metropolitan area in the country to storm-surge damage, to the extent that a Category 4 storm that makes landfall just north of the area could do an estimated $230 billion in damage. Adds Masters:
Most of the population in the four-county Tampa Bay region lives along the coast in low-lying areas, about 50 percent of it at an elevation of less than 10 feet. More than 800,000 people live in evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane, and 2 million people live in evacuation zones for a Category 5 hurricane, according to the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region. Given that only 46% of the people in the evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane evacuated when an evacuation order was given as 2004’s Category 4 Hurricane Charley threatened the region, the potential exists for high loss of life when the next major hurricane hits.
Two weeks ago, Helene didn’t even get all that close, but still walloped the metro area:
Despite its center passing 130 miles (205 km) to the west of Tampa Bay on Sep. 26, Hurricane Helene brought the bay its highest storm surge since record-keeping began in 1947, with water levels 5-8 feet above dry ground. According to local station fox13news.com, damage was heavy in the four-county Tampa Bay region: Pinellas County (home of St. Petersburg) had 28,000 damaged buildings, Pasco County had 9,900, and there were 8,600 in Manatee and Sarasota counties combined. Twelve storm-related deaths occurred in Pinellas County, two in Manatee County, and two in Hillsborough County.
Masters outlined the most troubling possible scenarios for Tampa:
Our five top hurricane-specific forecast models – the HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, and COAMPS-TC – have been painting some extremely ugly possible futures for Tampa Bay from Hurricane Milton. At least one run in recent days from all of these models have predicted Milton would achieve Cat 4 or Cat 5 strength on Tuesday or Wednesday. Many of the runs have shown a landfall just north of Tampa Bay, which would maximize the surge in the bay. However, many recent runs of these models have predicted that high wind shear and dry air would combine to disrupt Milton’s core before landfall, causing rapid weakening, with a potential Cat 1 or Cat 2 landfall resulting. Unfortunately, such a rapid weakening would allow the hurricane’s strongest winds to spread out over a larger area, resulting in a damaging surge characteristic of a Cat 3 hurricane affecting a larger portion of the coast. The most devastating scenario for Tampa Bay painted by any of the model runs from 6Z (2 a.m. EDT) Monday was from the new HAFS-B model, which showed Milton hitting as a large Cat 3 with 115 mph (185 km/h) winds just north of Tampa Bay (Fig. 3). Such a storm would likely generate a storm surge in the bay in excess of 10 feet, causing over $10 billion in damage. The HAFS-B model outperformed all the other models for 3-, 4-, and 5-day forecasts last year. …
With the new 6Z Monday runs of the HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, COAMPS-TC, GFS, and European models, all painted variations of a dire scenario for Milton for Tampa Bay, showing a landfall just to the north of or over Tampa Bay. The only model showing a best-case scenario for them was the 0Z Monday run of the UKMET model, which depicted a landfall near Fort Myers, about 80 miles south of Tampa Bay.
Fueled by the record warm water of the Gulf, the storm went from Category 2 to Category 5 strength in a matter of hours of Monday — one of the most rapid intensifications the National Hurricane Center has ever recorded. Explains the Washington Post:
Milton is the strongest Gulf of Mexico hurricane this late in the year since at least 1966 and the strongest in any month since Rita in 2005. It is tied as the fourth-strongest Atlantic or Gulf hurricanes on record based on its peak winds.
Milton is one of only seven Atlantic or Gulf hurricanes on record to increase from Category 1 to 5 in 24 hours and did so at the second-fastest rate. Its increase in strength over 48 hours is tied with Wilma in 2005 as the largest on record.
