Speaker Johnson Caught Between Trump and a Hard Place on Ukraine Aid

Republicans at best are dragging their feet. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Not that very long ago, there was a clear path forward for congressional Republicans on the fraught issue of aid to Ukraine, which is supported strongly by old-school conservative Republicans (including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell) and opposed to one degree or another by MAGA folk. The White House had proposed a foreign aid package that included assistance for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The latter two items had strong bipartisan support, and McConnell suggested adding in a nativist-flavored border-security measure to secure support among House Republicans. After much backpedaling, congressional Democrats accepted a deal that gave Republicans most of what they wanted in border policy changes. But then the whole package was torpedoed by House Speaker Mike Johnson, who was under steady pressure from Donald Trump to avoid taking away an important campaign issue.

So pro-Ukraine Democrats and Republicans went back to Plan A and designed a package that did not include border provisions. Then they managed to get it through the Senate (Democrats favored it by a 48-3 margin, with the no votes coming from progressives Bernie Sanders, Peter Welch, and Jeff Merkley, who were upset about the blank check they thought Israel was receiving for bad behavior in Gaza; Republicans split 22 votes for and 27 votes against the measure).

Now Speaker Johnson is in a quandary. If he just refuses to bring the Senate-passed bill to the floor, he risks triggering a “discharge petition,” a rarely used device whereby a majority of House members can bypass the committee system and the Speaker to push legislation directly to the floor. In effect, it would give Democrats control of the House for a minute in order to enact legislation opposed by a majority of Republicans in both chambers (and even more crucially, by Trump).

Johnson’s alternatives to inviting a discharge petition are not great, as Punchbowl News reports:

Johnson says the House will have to “work its own will.” One way for the House to do that is to put this bill on the floor and allow lawmakers to amend it. But Johnson is almost certainly not going to do that. What Johnson really means is that he wants the House GOP Conference — which hasn’t agreed on anything for months — to figure out what it wants and then try to pass it.

That could ultimately lead to a bill that’s markedly different from the current Senate bipartisan product. ​​Or it could lead to more stalemate.

It’s unclear what “sweeteners” Johnson could give to make it MAGA-acceptable to vote for the foreign-aid package now that he’s rejected the border-security treat he was offered and rejected. Trump has added a new complication to the quagmire by suddenly going all isolationist on foreign aid generally in a Truth Social post:

This position is not going to be acceptable to Ukraine supporters in either party or congressional chamber. And if applied to Israel, it could spur a significant backlash even in parts of MAGA land. Unless Trump backs down, he’s really put Johnson in an impossible position. But it sure looks like many Republicans are joining Team Impossible, including ultimate old-school defense hawk Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, as Axios reported:

It’s a notable stance for Graham, who has been one of Senate Republicans’ most ardent supporters of Ukraine. He reiterated the importance of helping the country in its war against Russia, but added “we must deal with our border first.”

“I hope the House will take another meaningful look at border security so that it can pass the Senate,” Graham said in a Monday night statement.

“I also hope the House will turn the supplemental aid package into a loan instead of a grant. Until that day comes, I will be voting no.”

The whole saga has become so strange that predictions are perilous. But it seems Johnson is likely to keep tossing out possible conservative-pleasing amendments to the foreign-aid package to keep Republicans from backing the discharge petition. And then … I don’t know, maybe he’ll kill the whole thing in the dark by inaction?

Whatever happens, it’s now clear that the much-discussed Democratic divisions over unconditional aid to Israel are a lot smaller than the Republican differences over helping Ukraine at all. The more Mike Johnson flounders over the bill the Senate has sent him, the more obvious that will become.