On Monday, Albany lawmakers officially rejected the new congressional map that had been proposed by a bipartisan panel from the state’s independent redistricting commission, setting the stage for the Legislature to draw its own district lines and potentially shake up some crucial races. The New York State Senate voted 40-17 and the State Assembly voted 99-47 to defeat the map in the latest twist of a yearslong political saga.
Later that evening, legislators submitted a proposal that would likely boost some Democratic candidates, while stopping far short of the significant changes it attempted in 2022. Several members of the Legislature had expressed concerns with the commission’s map, which was a slight modification from a 2022 version that had been drawn by a special master after New York’s highest court ruled that Democrats’ original proposal was a gerrymander.
On X, Dave Wasserman, the senior editor of Cook Political Report, called the new proposal from the Legislature a “mild/moderate gerrymander.” The Legislature could vote on the new map as soon as Thursday, and there is still the potential for a legal challenge from Republicans, though none have emerged so far. Here are the people who stand to gain and lose from the proposed map if it passes.
Winner: Tom Suozzi (D, NY-3)
The New York Times reports that the more Republican-friendly area of Massapequa is expected to be moved out of newly elected Congressman Tom Suozzi’s district, with the new lines reaching farther into Suffolk County. Suozzi, who just won the special election to fill former congressman George Santos’s open seat, will now likely have an easier path as he runs again this fall.
Winner: Nicole Malliotakis (R, NY-11) and Mike Lawler (R, NY-17)
Though Lawler’s seat is considered a top target for Democrats this cycle, the freshman Republican’s district avoided any changes that might’ve tipped the scales in favor of his Democratic opponent, former congressman Mondaire Jones.
Malliotakis’s Staten Island district also came out of the process unchanged. In 2022, the State Legislature’s proposed map linked her district with more progressive neighborhoods in Brooklyn like Park Slope and Sunset Park, a move that would have endangered her reelection. Ultimately, that change was thrown out by the court along with the Legislature’s whole proposal, and Malliotakis went on to win another term.
Though the congresswoman isn’t directly affected by the new proposal, she’s letting her perspective on the new proposal be known. “New York Democrats are rejecting the congressional maps drawn by the independent redistricting commission after rejecting the maps drawn by an independent special master. They plan to gerrymander the maps even after New Yorkers said NO in two referendums. Corrupt,” she wrote on X.
Loser: A less competitive Hudson Valley
The commission’s initial map would’ve helped to simultaneously bolster Republican Congressman Marc Molinaro’s district alongside his Democratic neighbor Congressman Pat Ryan. However, the Times reports that some of those planned changes have been undone, keeping both congressmen’s districts competitive rather than increasing their party advantage. Molinaro’s seat is one of four considered to be a toss-up by Cook Political Report whereas Ryan’s district is currently ranked as “Lean Democratic.”
The legislature does away with the commission’s proposed splitting of Orange County between both men’s districts, a top complaint of State Senator James Skoufis who called the IRC’s map “a disgrace.”
Loser: Brandon Williams (R, NY-22)
Williams’s district was set to gain bluer territory under the map approved by the redistricting commission. According to City & State, the Legislature’s map will keep some of those changes, including adding the city of Auburn, which is Democrat-friendly. Williams’s seat is thought to be in play as he seeks a second term.
Winner and Loser: National Dems
The path to control of the House of Representatives may run through New York again this year, as it did in 2022. After Republicans flipped several House seats following the highly contested redistricting process, Democrats have a credible chance to take back the chamber with the help of friendlier districts in the Empire State.
U.S. House Majority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who stands to become House Speaker in the event that Democrats win control of the House, had stopped short of officially calling for the Legislature to redraw the districts. But his office said the commission’s map “ignores or exacerbates” many of the problems previously raised, suggesting he was in favor of the Legislature trying its own approach.
However, the Legislature seemingly left many Republican districts untouched, likely an attempt to avoid any accusations of gerrymandering or another drawn-out court battle. But by doing so, the party risks going too small during a peak election year where it could’ve pushed for larger changes.
