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Jerry Lundergan applauding his daughter at an event in Mayfield, Kentucky.

(Photo: Getty Images)

This fall will be his biggest challenge so far�and will also help decide whether Cecil becomes the top strategist for any Clinton 2016 presidential run. The playing field for the midterm elections is tilted sharply in favor of the Republicans. Most of the contested Senate seats are in states that Mitt Romney won handily in 2012. The GOP needs to gain six seats to gain a majority, and three already appear to be in the bag: West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana. Democratic incumbents Mark Begich (Alaska), Mary Landrieu (Louisiana), Mark Pryor (Arkansas), and Kay Hagan (North Carolina) are in decent shape in tight races. The real nail-biters are in Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Colorado, and Kentucky.

Obama’s poll numbers nationally have rebounded into the mid-40s, but he remains deeply unpopular in many of the battleground states, where some polls have his approval rating among white voters in the low 20s. �The problem isn’t Obama�care, or even the economy�it’s him,� says a Democrat who has seen detailed polling. �The fundamental problem in these states is that they don’t like him and don’t believe he should be president.� That’s one reason Cecil is using his influence to make sure races stay focused on the two candidates on the ballot. Another is that even though the Democrats will be spending roughly $65 million on TV ads, Cecil recognized early that the Koch brothers could always spend more. So he has prioritized building a sophisticated field operation to persuade and register the right voters, especially women, and then get them to the polls.

�The old Democratic trap is reciting a litany of policy issues upon which we disagree with the Republicans,� Cecil says. �We’re trying to keep it focused on middle-class issues: jobs, Medicare, Social Security. Make it about the economy, personalize your story to make sure you’re presenting a well-rounded person who can’t be easily caricatured, and draw a strong contrast with your opponent on a repeated basis. Those are the three basic themes. And localize as much as possible.�

Last year Cecil helped dissuade Ashley Judd from challenging McConnell. Grimes made up her own mind to run, but Cecil talked her through the DSCC polls and focus-group results that showed how she could win and promised to back her up with aggressive fund-raising. He’s astute in interpreting how congressional legislation will reverberate in campaign politics. Warren’s student-debt bill, for instance, is good policy�but when McConnell killed it, Grimes had another weapon for her argument that the incumbent cares more about bailing out Wall Street tycoons than lifting up Main Street families.

�Alison and Kentucky is the quintessential race because the question is: Is this race about Mitch McConnell and national ideology and national partisanship, or is it about Kentucky?� Cecil says. �In the polling, voters side with Democrats on pocketbook issues. We have to make sure they go into the voting booth with that being the first thing on their minds. If they do, I think Alison will win. McConnell only wants to talk about Barack Obama. This is going to be a two-point race in either direction. And it’s going to be close all the way to the end.�

The Wily Incumbent

He glides past, never breaking stride, surrounded by muscular security guards, his thin lips tightly pursed into that odd half-smile. Mitch McConnell has just finished a Saturday-morning speech to the National Right to Life Convention inside a downtown-Louisville hotel. In 15 minutes of remarks, he never mentioned Grimes, let alone that he’s in the tightest reelection fight of his career. Instead his thick rumble of a voice projected confidence and his words held out a promise: McConnell would schedule a vote on a bill to ban most abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy if he and the Republicans gain more power. �If I was majority leader, we’d already have had a vote on it in the Senate,� he says, referring to a bill that’s been stalled by the current majority leader, Democrat Harry Reid. �It’s long past time for us to join the ranks of most other civilized nations to protect children past 20 weeks in the womb.�

Afterward the senator breezes silently past a cluster of reporters in the lobby. �Tight schedule, no questions!� barks the senator’s flack as McConnell passes a display of ABORTION IS MURDER and I SURVIVED ROE V. WADE T-shirts.

McConnell has never been loved in Kentucky, neither by the press nor the public. �He used to get called �Howdy Doody,’ and now it’s �Yertle the Turtle,’ � says Al Cross, a veteran Kentucky political reporter. �But it’s interesting: Voters refer to him by his first name, as �Mitch.’ He’s familiar. He’s part of the wallpaper.� In Washington, McConnell is the masterful tactical leader of the Republican opposition, most recently crafting the successful strategy to block the president’s �recess� appointments. In Kentucky, McConnell’s effectiveness at delivering money earned him respect.