Vulture’s Tony Awards Predictions for Every Category

Late intelligence suggests that many of my Tony predictions, as analyzed over the past week in a series of deep dives — see installments one, two, three, four, and five — will be wrong. (Apparently, prognosticators now expect Danny Burstein to beat both Lin-Manuel Miranda and his Burr, Leslie Odom Jr., for the Best Actor in a Musical award.) I’m not surprised; I’m really just guessing like the rest of you. Nevertheless, here they are again, damnable and mockable in perpetuity. If you lose your office pool, blame me. If you win, I get 15 percent.

Best Play

WILL WIN: The Humans.
SHOULD WIN: The Humans.

Best Revival of a Play

WILL WIN: A View from the Bridge. 
SHOULD WIN: A View from the Bridge.

Best Musical

WILL WIN: Hamilton. 
SHOULD WIN: Hamilton. 

Best Revival of a Musical 

WILL WIN: The Color Purple. 
SHOULD WIN: The Color Purple. 

Best Original Score 

WILL WIN: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
SHOULD WIN: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton

Best Book of a Musical

WILL WIN: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
SHOULD WIN: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton

Best Direction of a Play

WILL WIN: Joe Mantello, The Humans.
SHOULD WIN: Joe Mantello, The Humans. 

Best Direction of a Musical

WILL WIN: Thomas Kail, Hamilton
SHOULD WIN: George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

WILL WIN: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton. 
SHOULD WIN: Leslie Odom Jr., Hamilton.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

WILL WIN: Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple. 
SHOULD WIN: Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

WILL WIN: Daveed Diggs, Hamilton. 
SHOULD WIN: Daveed Diggs, Hamilton. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

WILL WIN: Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton. 
SHOULD WIN: Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

WILL WIN: Frank Langella, The Father.
SHOULD WIN: Jeff Daniels, Blackbird.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong’o, Eclipsed. 
SHOULD WIN: Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

WILL WIN: Reed Birney, The Humans.
SHOULD WIN: Reed Birney, The Humans.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

WILL WIN: Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans. 
SHOULD WIN: Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans.

Best Choreography 

WILL WIN: Andy Blankenbuehler, Hamilton. 
SHOULD WIN: Savion Glover, Shuffle Along  

Best Orchestrations

WILL WIN: Alex Lacamoire, Hamilton. 
SHOULD WIN: Daryl Waters, Shuffle Along. 

Set Design of a Play

WILL WIN: Christopher Oram, Hughie. 
SHOULD WIN: Beowulf Boritt, Thérèse Raquin.

Set Design of a Musical

WILL WIN: David Rockwell, She Loves Me. 
SHOULD WIN: Es Devlin and Finn Ross, American Psycho.

Costume Design of a Play

WILL WIN: Clint Ramos, Eclipsed. 
SHOULD WIN: Clint Ramos, Eclipsed.

Costume Design of a Musical

WILL WIN: Paul Tazewell, Hamilton. 
SHOULD WIN: Ann Roth, Shuffle Along.

Lighting Design of a Play

WILL WIN: Natasha Katz, Long Day’s Journey Into Night.  
SHOULD WIN: Natasha Katz, Long Day’s Journey Into Night.  

Lighting Design of a Musical

WILL WIN: Jules Fisher and Peggy Eisenhauer, Shuffle Along.
SHOULD WIN: Jules Fisher and Peggy Eisenhauer, Shuffle Along.

The Tonys will air on CBS on Sunday, June 12.