Imagining the Oscars With No Oscar Bait

It is a strange time for the movie industry. Thanks to the coronavirus, theatrical releases essentially ground to a halt in early March, and many of the year’s most anticipated films have abandoned their planned premiere dates for greener pastures in 2021. No one knows when audiences will feel comfortable returning to the multiplex, or if they ever will.

Still, you know what they say in Hollywood: The show must go on. With the fall awards season in flux, the Academy recently announced it was “in the process of evaluating all aspects of this uncertain landscape� to determine “what changes may need to be made.� But what if the Academy decided no changes needed to be made? What if the only films eligible for next February’s Oscars remained films that had a qualifying theatrical release in the year 2020? Furthermore, what if, in a completely unprecedented scenario, zero more movies come out this year?

Welcome to the weirdest Oscar year ever, a season when voters have only slightly more than two months of films to consider. And not just any two months, but January and February, traditionally the dumping ground for the dregs of the studio system. In the season that just ended, 38 feature films received an Oscar nomination. Precisely one of them, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, came out in the previous winter. For the Academy, this is a nigh-uncharted section of the calendar. But this year, it’s all they have, and they’ve got to nominate something. What will it be?

Before we begin, some ground rules for the thought experiment. We’re counting only films that arrived on or before March 31. Netflix films will be considered, with the assumption that the streamer would surely find some way to make sure they had a qualifying release. (To make it fair, we’ll just ignore the fact that more Netflix movies will continue to hit the app during the quarantine.) We’ll also proceed as if all the precursor ceremonies like the Gothams, SAG Awards, Globes, etc. are still happening, and they’re following the same eligibility rules as the Oscars, because it’s more fun that way.

Got it? Let’s start by going over the small handful of films that have, by necessity, become this year’s Oscar bait.

Part 1: The Contenders

In one highly specific sense, the Academy is lucky the coronavirus struck this year, as this winter’s offerings were actually slightly better than most. (Had it hit five years earlier, we would have been in for the Mortdecai Oscars.) By my count, just over 50 films were released before the shutdown, which means that, just by existing, any one of them has a slightly less than 20 percent chance of winding up a Best Picture nominee. Almost by default, the two strongest contenders would seem to be Birds of Prey and The Invisible Man, both of which rose from the wreckage of a failed cinematic universe to hit the sweet spot of financial success, positive-ish reviews, and vague social relevance. For voters who prefer more traditional awards fare, the millennial-pink Jane Austen adaptation Emma. and the sports-movie-slash-addiction-drama-slash-Ben-Affleck-comeback-vehicle The Way Back could do the trick, though since each barely got any time in theaters, they’re a bit of a wild card. February’s romance The Photograph did solid box office and got pretty good reviews, which in this context might as well be $100 million and 80 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. Bad Boys for Life, the highest-grossing film of the year, will likely rack up the technical nods; in the alarmingly possible scenario where it wins Best Picture, it would be the first threequel to do so since Lord of the Rings: Return of the King.

Closer to the bottom of the barrel, Harrison Ford might have a chance to land an Oscar nomination for acting opposite a CGI dog in The Call of the Wild, while a weak supporting-actor field could mean that, after being snubbed for The Truman Show, Man on the Moon, and Eternal Sunshine, Jim Carrey finally breaks into the Oscar club with Sonic the Hedgehog.

On the art-house side, a few films that played what turned out to be the last-ever Cannes Film Festival made their U.S. debuts. The buzziest was probably Bacurau, a dystopian Western out of Brazil that hit theaters just before the shutdown and is now the guinea pig for an experimental release strategy. Leftist filmmaker Ken Loach has never caught on with Oscar before, but he’s the closest thing this race has to an A-list auteur, as his Sorry We Missed You, a kitchen-sink drama about the plight of delivery workers, suddenly finds itself the most timely film of the year. Out of Sundance, TV’s Julia Garner earned raves as a low-level employee at a Weinstein Company stand-in in The Assistant. There were also two different tasteful British films about long-married couples in a crisis that voters are guaranteed to spend the whole season confusing — Hope Gap is the Annette Bening–Bill Nighy one, Ordinary Love is the Liam Neeson–Lesley Manville one.

In terms of critical passion, though, two films stood above the rest: Kelly Reichardt’s charming Oregon Trail buddy movie First Cow, and Eliza Hittman’s unsparing abortion drama Never Rarely Sometimes Always. Taking a page from Netflix’s book, each campaign swears, despite minuscule box-office numbers, that their movie has been a massive success on VOD.

Speaking of Netflix, the streamer has largely been spared the financial apocalypse that’s hit the rest of Hollywood, and it likely won’t let a little thing like the coronavirus stand between it and its dreams of Oscar gold. But … what will they campaign? Like everyone else, Netflix was saving its big Oscar players for the end of the year, which leaves it with a grab-bag of mediocre options: To All the Boys: P.S. I Still Love You, The Last Thing He Wanted, Spenser Confidential, Uncorked, and both Horse Girl and Lost Girls. With no other way to spend its money, Netflix decides to throw its funds into digital “For Your Consideration� ads touting every single one of its would-be contenders. Though readers quickly tire of seeing Mark Wahlberg’s face wherever they go, the resulting windfall is nearly enough to prop up the entire entertainment-media industry.

And, give or take a Downhill, Gretel & Hansel, Wendy, or The Hunt, that’s pretty much it!

Part 2: The Precursors

The fall festivals have all been canceled, or, like the Olympics, pushed to 2021. With large gatherings still verboten, Oscar campaigns need to get creative. Zoom hangouts with voters become de rigueur for any star on the awards trail. Margot Robbie gives house tours. Jim Carrey offers online art courses. Ben Affleck takes HFPA members for virtual iced-coffee runs with girlfriend Ana de Armas.

As the traditional opening bell for the season is absent, awards season gets going in earnest in early December. Though their ranks have been decimated by layoffs, the film critics who remain employed have more power in the Oscar race than ever before. Thankfully, they use it wisely, though whispers from the NYFCC say one critic campaigned for hours to give Best Film to Bad Boys for Life. Instead, the New York critics give the trophy to Never Rarely Sometimes Always, which also earns top prizes from the Gotham Awards. The L.A. critics go instead with First Cow. Rounding out the early birds, the National Board of Review names Sorry We Missed You as its No. 1. So far, so normal. Just wait.

One bright side of the season? After years of having their contributions overlooked, female filmmakers see institutional sexism start working in their favor — what was once a fallow period in the release schedule has become their time to shine. The Assistant’s Kitty Green wins Breakthrough Director at the Gothams, and Hittman and Reichardt swap directing honors at the New York and L.A. critics’ awards. Wags joke that the Academy will have to try really hard for its all-male directing lineup this year.

The Best Actor race is largely a fait accompli. With strong work, a compelling narrative, and little competition, Ben Affleck of The Way Back quickly amasses unstoppable momentum. (The less said about the other nominees in that category, the better.) Best Actress is more competitive. Though Julia Garner pulls in some wins from the critics’ groups, the race soon comes down to a face-off between Birds of Prey’s Margot Robbie and The Invisible Man’s Elisabeth Moss, with Anya Taylor-Joy of Emma. and Issa Rae of The Photograph also showing up in most precursors. But who will get the fifth spot?

The supporting races, frankly, are a mess. Jim Carrey somehow wins Best Supporting Actor from the NYFCC. First Cow’s Orion Lee is the pick from the L.A. critics, but he gets snubbed at SAG and the Globes, with his spot taken by Martin Lawrence of Bad Boys for Life at the former, and Pete Davidson of Big Time Adolescence at the latter. Bill Nighy of Hope Gap and Lakeith Stanfield of The Photograph are the closest thing the field has to front-runners; you can chalk up the category fraud to no one wanting to run against Affleck. Meanwhile, Carrey gets left off at SAG, but his Globe nom keeps hope alive. Supporting Actress is even more bonkers, as the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA come up with entirely separate fields of 15 different nominees.

In another bit of light category fraud, Birds of Prey decides to submit as a Musical/Comedy at the Globes. With Emma. also in the running, that makes for a solid Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy slate, all things considered. But the Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy field is truly dire:

Noah Centineo, To All the Boys: P.S. I Still Love You
Robert Downey Jr., Dolittle
Will Ferrell, Downhill
Matthew McConaughey, The Gentlemen
Mark Wahlberg, Spenser Confidential

(Ferrell wins, by the way.)

It’s Globes night! Tina Fey and Amy Poehler joint-host the Zoom session with gallon-size glasses of wine; the ceremony is delayed as no one can figure out screen-sharing. As expected, Robbie and Moss split the Best Actress prizes, and Affleck takes Best Actor in a Drama. Screenplay goes to Emma.’s Eleanor Catton, Director goes to The Invisible Man’s Leigh Whannel, Supporting Actress to Mia Goth of Emma, and in the night’s biggest shocker, Carrey wins the Best Supporting Actor trophy! At the end of the night, Emma. notches the upset in Best Musical/Comedy, and The Invisible Man takes home Best Drama. The pair emerges from the Globes looking like the strongest contenders in the Best Picture race.

The Invisible Man triumphs at the PGA’s preferential ballot, though it can’t solidify its front-runner status at the DGAs, where Ken Loach pulls out the surprise victory. (Emma.’s Autumn De Wilde wins the guild’s first-time feature award.) Moss wins Best Actress at SAG, but Robbie holds serve with a victory at the BAFTAs. Affleck and Nighy win at both, with The Way Back doubling up at SAG thanks to Janina Gavinkar’s Supporting Actress win. (Michelle Dockery of The Gentlemen wins the BAFTA.)

Most importantly for the Oscar race, Emma. beats Birds of Prey, First Cow, The Invisible Man, and Sorry We Missed You in SAG’s Best Ensemble category. With voters seemingly pining for escapism, the Jane Austen adaptation has all the momentum coming into the BAFTAs, where it’s racked up an impressive 13 nominations — until its thunder is stolen at the ceremony by Sorry We Missed You, which takes home Best Film, Best British Film, and Best Director, the latter of which is presented virtually to Loach by Jeremy Corbyn.

Hope Gap sweeps the AARP Movies for Grownups Awards.

Part 3: The Nominations

Nomination morning brings a pleasant surprise — the disjointed, up-way-too-early vibe of the Academy livestream no longer feels as strange as in past years, as it is now just the national mood. In a symbolic act of resolve, Idris Elba and Andy Cohen read the noms.

Despite all that’s changed since last season, two things remain constant: snubs and surprises. Though their films lead the field with 12 nominations apiece, Birds of Prey’s Cathy Yan and Emma.’s Autumn De Wilde get left out of the Best Director slate, which causes no small amount of consternation. However, with Eliza Hittman and Kelly Reichardt both making it in, this marks the first time in Oscar history that multiple female directors have been nominated. And all it took was a pandemic!

With all five nominees under the age of 40, the Best Actress field is among the youngest in history. On the male side of the ballot, voters use the shrunken field as an opportunity to hand a number of “career� nominations to veteran actors. Will Smith gets his third Oscar nom, Harrison Ford and Liam Neeson each get their second, and there’s even room in the Supporting Actor race for Hugh Grant to nab his first. Jim Carrey manages to get in as well — since Sonic is also a heavy hitter in the Best Visual Effects race, voters put aside any qualms they may have had about marking a ballot for a video-game adaptation.

The shortage of movies available to nominate has additional knock-on effects. The makeup branch struggles to find five worthy choices, and so decides to shrink back to three nominees. The animation branch forgets that Weathering With You was on the shortlist last year, and nominates it again.* In some of the craft fields, the search for a fifth movie results in some unexpected choices — The Call of the Wild, Gretel & Hansel, and Wendy are all nominated for multiple Oscars. And for the first time in the era of the preferential ballot, the Academy can only come up with seven films in Best Picture.

Here are the nominees in the six biggest categories:

Best Picture
Birds of Prey
Emma.
First Cow
The Invisible Man
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Sorry We Missed You
The Way Back

Best Director
Kleber Mendonça Filho and Juliano Dornelles, Bacurau
Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Ken Loach, Sorry We Missed You
Kelly Reichardt, First Cow
Leigh Whannel, The Invisible Man

Best Actor
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Harrison Ford, The Call of the Wild
John Magaro, First Cow
Liam Neeson, Ordinary Love
Will Smith, Bad Boys for Life

Best Actress
Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Elisabeth Moss, The Invisible Man
Issa Rae, The Photograph
Margot Robbie, Birds of Prey
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma.

Best Supporting Actor
Jim Carrey, Sonic the Hedgehog
Hugh Grant, The Gentlemen
Orion Lee, First Cow
Bill Nighy, Hope Gap
Lakeith Stanfield, The Photograph

Best Supporting Actress
Sônia Braga, Bacurau
Janina Gavinkar, The Way Back
Mia Goth, Emma.
Lesley Manville, Ordinary Love
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Birds of Prey

To see the rest of the nominations, tap or mouse over the name of each category below:

Animated Feature | Original Screenplay | Adapted Screenplay | Production Design | Costume Design | Documentary Feature | Sound Editing | Sound Mixing | Cinematography | Film Editing | Visual Effects | Makeup and Hairstyling | International Feature | Original Score | Original Song

Part 4: Oscar Night

Say it with me: It’s Hollywood’s biggest night! And the movies aren’t going to let a little thing like the coronavirus stop them from celebrating themselves. As massive gatherings are still a public-health hazard, the ceremony takes place over Zoom livestream, and for the occasion the company has unveiled a new, ultra-powerful Touch Up My Appearance Ever More feature, which ensures that all the stars continue to look their best.

Tom Hanks is the host. (No one even dreams of digging into his old tweets.) While the lack of in-person meetings makes it hard for negative whisper campaigns to take root, given the offerings, it’s still easy to poke holes in all of the major nominees. Is the Academy really going to give Best Picture to a horror film, or a comic-book movie? Conversely, with the industry teetering on the brink of collapse, do they really need to cement their irrelevance by giving the trophy to an indie movie no one saw? It’s like a Democratic primary: Emotions are so high you can talk yourself into or out of anything.

Still, there’s a chance for history to be made. If Affleck takes home Best Actor for The Way Back, as seems likely, he will hold the rare distinction of winning every Oscar he’s ever been nominated for, and in three separate categories! And if either Birds of Prey or Emma. runs the table, they would break the record for most Oscar wins by a single film. Few expect that to occur, as the Academy has preferred to spread the love around recently. But, as every pundit is required by law to include in their predictions: This is a weird year, and anything could happen. Let’s see what does!

After largely being shut out of the feature film categories, Netflix at least gets a tiny consolation prize: As most pundits predicted, the streamer wins the Best Documentary prize with Crip Camp. International Feature also goes chalk, as Bacurau walks away with the trophy. In Animated Feature, though, Weathering With You upsets Onward, spurring a round of Monday-morning postmortems questioning why international films are allowed to be eligible in multiple years.

The craft categories quickly turn into a battle of Emma. versus The Invisible Man. Emma. takes Costume Design and Production Design, and also notches a surprise win in Cinematography. Not to be outdone, The Invisible Man carries both Sound categories, Film Editing, and Visual Effects, too. Birds of Prey wins the Suicide Squad Memorial Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar. And just when Film Twitter starts getting worried about First Cow going home empty-handed, its jangly banjo tunes pull out the win in Best Score. Oily cakes for everyone!

While the Academy can live with the words “Oscar nominee Sonic the Hedgehog,� they cannot live with the words “Oscar winner Sonic the Hedgehog,� and so Jim Carrey loses Best Supporting Actor to Bill Nighy, who has run a charming campaign in his own right. More shocking is the Supporting Actress result: The winner is screen legend Sônia Braga of Bacurau, whose acceptance speech inspires a shockingly good Snatch Game performance on the next season of RuPaul’s Drag Race.

“The Other Side� from Trolls World Tour wins Original Song, which means Justin Timberlake is now an Oscar winner. Ben Affleck takes Best Actor, as the man simply does not lose Oscars once he’s been nominated. (Ana de Armas gets prominent onscreen real estate during his acceptance speech.) Best Actress has been a nail-biter all season long, and the Oscar ultimately goes to … Elisabeth Moss! She curses up a storm in her speech. People say it’s a Scientology thing.

Now it’s time for the big categories. In Original Screenplay, Eliza Hittman wins the “welcome to the club, indie filmmaker� screenplay Oscar. Adapted Screenplay comes down to the question of who best updated old material for the present moment, and the winner turns out to be the sprightliest revamp: Emma. Then, in Best Director, a moment of suspense: Will a woman win for the first time in 11 years? Nope — it’s Leigh Whannel for The Invisible Man.

Going into the final commercial break, The Invisible Man leads the field with six awards. Will it also triumph in Best Picture? New York governor Andrew Cuomo takes the mic to announce the winner. He does it gruffly; the Oscar goes to Emma. It’s neither a Parasite-style triumph nor a Green Book-style embarrassment. It’s more like the Shape of Water win: understandable and just kind of … fine. Pundits explain that voters clearly wanted a light, happy movie that made them forget about the quarantine for two hours. And besides, it’s not like the competition was so great.

And then, a few days later, one blogger attempts an alternate history: Who would have won the Oscars, you think, if there was no coronavirus?

*In real life it was me who forgot; thank you to reader Reuben Baron for reminding me.