Every week between now and January 23, 2024, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscars race. In our Oscar Futures column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
Best Picture
May December
Now that Todd Haynes’s don’t-call-it-camp melodrama is streaming on Netflix, the film has found its ideal audience: Internet weirdos. But will an Academy that’s never nominated a Todd Haynes film for Best Picture get on the same wavelength as his unholy amalgam of Ingmar Bergman and TruTV? Early signs are promising: May December tied the mark for most Independent Spirit Award nominations this week, and it’s been placing high on critics’ year-end lists. And while the eggheads at the National Board of Review neglected to include it on their top-ten list, the more mainstream American Film Institute did. We’re working with a very different Academy than the one that snubbed Carol; there may be enough hot dogs after all.
Killers of the Flower Moon
Killers followed up its big New York Film Critics Circle win last week by dominating the National Board of Review honors, where it took Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actress. Some have taken this as an ill omen: The last film to win the top prize from both the NYFCC and NBR was … The Irishman, whose zero-for-ten record on Oscar night stands as an Ozymandian warning for awards pundits. Are these tastemaking awards bodies assuming Oppenheimer is so secure in its slot atop the Best Picture rankings that they feel comfortable going in a different direction, or could this be a sign that the Scorsese film does indeed have the juice to mount a serious challenge?
Current Predix
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things
Best Director
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Since the moment it won the Golden Lion at Venice, Poor Things has been pegged as this year’s Shape of Water: an offbeat genre exercise from an international auteur that turns out to be hiding an Oscar-friendly heart. The steampunk fairy tale opens limited this weekend to strong reviews, and its sumptuous visual imagination and plentiful humor should ensure nominations all across the ballot. And yet, though the film made it onto both the AFI and NBR lists, it’s also been the subject of a few notable dissents, while the voters I’ve spoken to prefer to gush over other contenders. The good news? Pundits were saying much the same thing about Shape of Water this time six years ago, and that ended just fine.
Sofia Coppola, Priscilla
If there was a body that was going to go for Priscilla, it would be the Independent Spirit Awards, which seldom ignores a contender from A24. But that’s exactly what happened this year, as Coppola’s pastel-hued biopic blanked entirely. This is becoming a tradition for this director, who hasn’t had a film nominated at the Spirits since Lost in Translation. A blue Christmas, indeed.
Current Predix
Greta Gerwig, Barbie; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Alexander Payne, The Holdovers; Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Actor
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Phew! After Giamatti got snubbed by the Independent Spirit Awards, fans started to fear a repeat of the Sideways year, when the actor got left out even when his film scored elsewhere. Then the National Board of Review came along and handed the Holdovers star their Best Actor prize, restoring order to the universe. I suspect this category could be more open than we realize, and if Giamatti does indeed get nominated, a vigorous campaign could pay dividends, especially as he’ll be up against a bunch of guys who aren’t natural backslappers.
Zac Efron, The Iron Claw
It’s been hard to figure out how The Iron Claw will figure into the awards race, if at all, since reviews are still embargoed. But Sean Durkin’s film did make it onto the NBR’s best-of list and also won the Best Ensemble award, giving Efron’s He Man–esque performance a shot in the arm — or maybe somewhere else.
Current Predix
Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer; Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Best Actress
Emma Stone, Poor Things
“If for no other reason, watch Poor Things for the chance to see an actor at the top of her game build a character literally from the ground up,†says Dana Stevens, saluting Stone’s “technically astounding yet thrillingly unhinged performance.†Since Venice, critics have pegged it as a career-best performance, and while I’ve since seen some online backlash around the film’s sex scenes (Stone’s character starts out with the brain of an infant), I don’t expect that to factor into her awards fortunes: This is a big, bold swing that stands out in a field full of quiet, interior performances. Stone began the season as the consensus Best Actress front-runner, though recently another contender has emerged …
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
One reason to think Killers may better The Irishman’s track record: Gladstone’s heart-rending performance, which won another Best Actress award from the NBR this week. Just as the expected Stone-versus-Portman showdown of 2017 never materialized because Stone wound up walking away with it, could Gladstone be on her way to becoming undeniable? If Sunday’s Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards make it four-for-four for Gladstone, critics will have put their stamp on this race in a major way.
Current Predix
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall; Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Margot Robbie, Barbie; Emma Stone, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
For four years running, Oscar’s Supporting Actor field has featured two men from the same film. Poor Things is the obvious candidate this year, thanks to standout turns from Willem Dafoe as a lovably mad scientist and Ruffalo as an unctuous suitor. However, the rise of Charles Melton means there might only be one seat at the table per movie. Thus Ruffalo’s Supporting Actor win from the NBR was doubly helpful: Not only was it the rare individual laurel for Poor Things, it also gives his comic performance the edge over Dafoe’s more emotional turn.
John Magaro, Past Lives
On the campaign trail, director Celine Song has been praising Magaro’s delicate emotional calibrations: If his character was too angry about his wife reconnecting with her childhood love, the audience would lose sympathy for him; if he was too relaxed, they’d think he wasn’t invested. That finely tuned performance earned Magaro some early-season attention, but even as Past Lives has been amassing a track record befitting a Best Picture nominee, the rising character actor has been lost in the shuffle. Though the romantic drama co-led the Independent Spirit Award nominations, including love for Greta Lee and Teo Yoo, Magaro got left out of the Supporting category.
Current Predix
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling, Barbie; Charles Melton, May December; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Get ready to see Randolph’s name a lot over the next few weeks. The National Board of Review joined the New York critics in naming her Best Supporting Actress, and with The Color Purple getting shut out by both the AFI and NBR, she seems to have the tastemaker phase of the season all to herself. Adding to the list of things Randolph has going for her — emotional oomph, winning chemistry, plentiful screen time — The Holdovers should also get a boost from being a four-quadrant film Academy voters are likely to watch with their families over the holidays.
Viola Davis, Air
The AFI and NBR lists had something in common with Jordin Sparks: no Air. If even these middle-of-the-road precursors couldn’t find room for the accessible sports dramedy, that’s probably the end of its run as a dark-horse Oscar player, and therefore curtains for Davis’s Supporting Actress hopes.
Current Predix
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Julianne Moore, May December; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
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