Awards season! It’s kind of like a conclave, as seen in 2024’s Conclave. Don’t you think? Consider the Roman Catholic pageantry and aesthetic splendor of it all, with the ceremonial rites, the pilgrimages to grand cathedrals (St. Dolby’s, St. Beverly Hilton’s), lots of sermonizing, and even fast days. We analyze who’s sitting where, and with whom, at various awards events, just like the cardinals in the Vatican cafeteria. There are corruption scandals, whisper campaigns, and possible bribery afoot, just like with those gossipy Vatican queens. Hopefuls speechify, and ballots are counted with great pomp and circumstance by accounting-firm representatives, as serious as emissaries of God himself. And it all goes down among a very wealthy and closed-off little unbreachable society that has been greatly influential for a long time.
Now that that metaphor has been firmly established, let’s take it a step further and determine which of Conclave’s papal-hopefuls are which of this awards season’s most talked-about contenders. (In this scenario, cinching the votes for papacy = winning Best Picture in the highest church of movies, the Oscars.)
The dead pope — Oppenheimer
Huge shoes for any of these guys to fill. No successor that feels clear or inevitable off the bat.
Cardinal Adeyemi — Emilia Pérez
A very strong player early on in the voting, with an international bloc behind him. On the surface, appears to be a progressive, even a transgressive, pick, but as we get deeper into the conclave/campaign season, more people are made publicly aware of his regressive values and offensive nature. More voters actually laying eyes (and ears … oh God, those songs) on Emilia Pérez over the next few weeks could in fact hurt its chances of going all the way to the top.
Cardinal Bellini — Anora
The sexy, cool American of the bunch, with a refreshing sense of humor and good head on its shoulders. This contender has garnered a lot of positive buzz but underperformed in the early voting (in this case, at the Golden Globes). From there, Bellini’s campaign flagged and fizzled out, but he’s still the one we’re all talking about months later. Can Anora take things a step further than its cardinal counterpart and win any of the major categories?
Cardinal Tedesco — The Brutalist
Visually stylish and bombastic, albeit with feet firmly planted in the past, taking up all the space in the room. Tedesco came in to this conclave mad as hell, similar to how The Brutalist made a huge splash early in its awards campaign, receiving major awards with critics’ voting bodies and at the Globes. But this candidate comes with controversy; the film’s use of AI is not a good look, particularly so soon after the Hollywood strikes of 2023, which put AI at the fore of concerns over labor and intellectual rights. Like Adeyemi/Emilia Pérez, The Brutalist could become the villain of the whole race if someone doesn’t intervene to stop it. Plus, director Brady Corbet reading an acceptance speech off his phone is just so Tedesco.
Cardinal Tremblay — Wicked
There’s a lot of institutional power and money behind this candidate, to say nothing of flashy practical effects (he was flexing with that Nespresso), but his ambitions outpace his capabilities as a contender. The technical prowess is there, but he seems a tad dim and less philosophically daring compared to the others. If he’s made it this far and been this close to the pope (who’s sort of these guys’ version of the Wizard), then he must be broadly popular. But he wants it too bad, and his campaign is severely lacking in tact.
Sister Agnes — Dune: Part Two
She’s been here the entire time, is very stylish and well-respected, especially considering her lower station (Dune: Part Two is the only action/sci-fi among this year’s hopefuls). But she is shut out of the conclave and is not even in the conversation of who will win the ultimate title. Still, her presence can influence the race in below-the-line categories. Mostly, though, Agnes is Dune: Part Two because of the space nuns.
Cardinal Benitez — The Substance
An outsider who appears to have materialized out of thin air. Benitez would be a radical and fresh choice. And the very essence of his being, once it is revealed, is sort of the divine epitome of The Substance’s slogan, “Remember, you are one.” Benitez’s twist, much like the third act of The Substance, had audiences all titillated and in disbelief and freaking the fuck out. Both within the film and as an avatar of the film, Benitez is the “people’s princess,” and the same could be said of how The Substance, particularly lead actress Demi Moore, has positioned itself in the campaign. Benitez was able to win hearts and votes at the conclave with one impactful speech; Moore may have done the same at the Golden Globes. Benitez went into this conclave not even wanting it … but he accepted the appointment with characteristic grace. If The Substance were to win Best Picture, which feels unthinkable now, it would be like a miracle, like an act of God. And besides, Best Actress is the most important award of the night for many Oscars fans anyway; it’s literally like assuming the papacy for awards-watching gays.
Cardinal Lawrence — Conclave
When this selection process kicked off, Cardinal Thomas Lawrence was well-liked and respected but not making waves or campaigning terribly hard to assume the top brass. Secretly, though, and quietly, he built momentum, keeping his eyes on the race and adjusting accordingly. He’s a candidate who unites many factions, in some ways fronting as a traditional choice while in actuality being fairly transgressive. He’s a candidate whom dads and scholars alike can appreciate. He also fronts like he’s humble but deep down is a striver. Thomas is smart and put together, represents decency, like how Conclave represents a different kind of decency, decency as in “it’s decent,” like this is very well-crafted but not necessarily a shattering work. He came really close to becoming pope; Conclave will also likely make it into the Best Picture lineup but probably won’t win.