Watching a trailer is free, but getting your butt to the box office is not. Maybe that’s why it seems like Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman have been working overtime on the Deadpool & Wolverine press tour, despite the fact that the Marvel threequel has already set a Guinness World Record for the most-watched movie trailer in a single day (365 million views in 24 hours). In addition to promoting their film and dodging cameo spoilers in standard junkets and sit-down interviews, Reynolds and Jackman have become two-thirds of a throuple for Chicken Shop Date and even suited up for a K-pop music video. Will it pay off? Current projections expect D&W to make a record-breaking $170 million during its opening weekend. Depending on whether the actual total is less or more than that, here’s just how historic this box-office debut could be.
Not historic
If the movie makes less than $125.5 million domestically, it won’t pass Deadpool 2 and will have the worst-performing opening weekend in the Deadpool franchise. Yikes!
Pretty historic
D&W could do okay by passing the first Deadpool movie’s $132 million domestic opening-weekend record for R-rated movies. (Deadpool 2 is in second with $125.5 million, while the horror movie It takes third with $123 million.)
Awfully historic
This is where the current projections of around $160 to 170 million would land. At this point, the movie’s opening weekend would not only break the record for R-rated films but also start competing with recent high-grossing films of any rating. For reference, Inside Out 2 made $155 million domestically over Father’s Day Weekend. That’s this year’s best opening performance by far; Dune: Part Two is in second with $82.5 million. Once we’re in this range, there’s also potential for an MCU matchup: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s $181.3 million opening-weekend performance has not been surpassed by any Marvel movie since the sequel released in 2022.
Historic historic
To reach this level, D&W would need to be gunning for all-time opening weekend records. Avengers: Endgame holds the domestic record with $357 million, with a considerable gap over Spider-Man: No Way Home’s second-place performance of $260 million. Either way, Kevin Feige wins.