Biden Stumbles in First Presidential Debate: How It Happened

Biden’s debate performance has been compared to John Fetterman’s in 2022 when he struggled to communicate during a senate debate following a debilitating stroke. At the time, many observers declared he lost to celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, but of course he won. On X, Fetterman said he has no plans to join the chorus of voices calling for Biden to step down, alluding to his own experience.

The Morning Joe host, who insisted just a few months ago that this is the “best Biden ever,” has changed his tune. On Friday morning, Scarborough questioned whether Democrats need to dump Biden from the ticket after his poor debate performance.

“If he were CEO and he turned in a performance like that, would any corporation … keep him on as CEO?” he asked. “We know Joe Biden can govern, but can he run for president in 2024?”

Vice-President Kamala Harris made the cable-news rounds after a less-than-impressive debate showing from Biden. During an appearance on CNN, Harris conceded that her running mate didn’t get off to a great start, but insisted he did well after that. “Yes, it was a slow start, but it was a strong finish,” she said.

Harris continued: “People can debate on style points but ultimately this election, and who is the president of the United States, has to be about substance, and the contrast is clear.”

On MSNBC, the vice-president highlighted some of their administration’s accomplishments such as the infrastructure package and capping insulin costs, as well as their support for abortion rights in contrast with Trump. When asked how to counter Trump’s attacks, Harris seemed unperturbed, saying that he and his allies were trying to “create fear out of fiction.”

“I think what Donald Trump is doing is grasping for straws and, look, of the two people on the debate stage, only one of them has the endorsement of their vice-president. Let’s not forget that,” she said with a laugh — a clear reference to Mike Pence.

That doesn’t mean it’s likely, or probable, but for now it’s the reaction du jour.

There’s lot of panic in the Democratic Party that did not exist a few hours ago. It can’t be great in an election year to see the post-debate chyron on CNN read: “‘AGGRESSIVE PANIC’ FOR DEMS AFTER BIDEN”S PERFORMANCE TONIGHT.”

Speculation is rampant about swapping out Biden at the top of the ticket and at least one top Democrat released a pretty reserved statement about the debacle:

During closing statements, Biden opened by saying his administration made significant progress from the “debacle” left by Trump when he left office. Notably, the president didn’t lead with one of his stronger issues such as abortion, but rather the tax systems, saying that he would work to make taxes fairer for the average American and make the wealthy pay a fairer share. Audibly, Biden appeared to have lost some of the energy he gained during the middle of the debate, stumbling over his words slightly.

He ended his remarks on the subject of inflation. “We’re going to continue to fight to bring down inflation and give people a break,” Biden said.

In contrast, Trump began by lashing out at his opponent, calling Biden a complainer. He blamed the president for an increase of migrants from the southern border and seemed to suggest that the conflict in Gaza wouldn’t have happened if he had been in office.

“We’re in a failing nation, but it’s not going to be failing anymore. We’re going to make it great again,” he said.

Biden lost the coin toss, allowing Trump to have the final word. To make matters worse, what should have been a win for Biden — Melania Trump being MIA while the First Lady is there to support him — played more like he was being escorted from the stage by a caretaker.

While answering the inevitable question about whether he’s too old for a second term, Trump rambled about his mental acuity and physical fitness, saying he’s “probably a little bit lighter” than he was in the White House.
Biden had a good retort that referenced Trump’s absurd claim from his Georgia booking documents that he is now six-foot-three and 215 pounds — or about 24 pounds lighter than he was during his last physical as president.

Unfortunately, Biden mangled the line.

“You can see he’s only six-foot-five and two hundred twenty third pounds,” he said, stumbling over the end of the sentence.

And rolling over Biden.

At the 2020 debates, Joe Biden was able to effectively undercut some of Trump’s crazier statements by making incredulous faces. But this time around, Biden has listened with his mouth open for much of the debate. What’s more, having the mic cut when he isn’t talking may have somehow hurt Biden more than Trump, the inveterate interrupter. Biden can’t employ any strategic “come on man”’s to call out his opponent’s made-up statements.

My expectations for Biden’s ability to perform tonight were hovering somewhere near the Earth’s core when this started, in fairness. But I am surprised that he’s doing as well as he is. He isn’t doing well, but he’s doing much better than I figured he’d do. The worst moments by far — and the moments that I assume will serve as fodder for a billion memes for months to come — are when he’s not speaking.

Without the moderators fact-checking or otherwise intervening much at all when Trump says whatever he wants — often in place of answering questions — Raspy Biden is the only one who can push back on any of it.

Biden’s attack on Trump’s ethics was stronger, invoking Trump’s felonies, sexual abuse, and affair with a porn star while his wife was pregnant. Trump mugged and made goofy faces, confirming the impression of a rogue.

All night, the president has had an ace up his sleeve: This is the first and only presidential debate in which one candidate has been convicted of a felony. But it took until around 9:45 p.m. for Biden to mention Trump’s conviction in New York on 34 felony counts. “The only convicted felon I know is the one onstage right now,” Biden said. Perhaps he’ll also mention that sentencing is coming up in a few short weeks.

After this debate, it’s very likely that Joe Biden will face renewed talk about him “stepping aside” — or being pushed aside — at the Democratic convention in August. Is it possible? Yes, Democrats do not legally bind delegates as Republicans do. Is it feasible? Only if defeat appears all but certain. Nearly all the delegates to the convention — and all the members of the Democratic National Committee, which would be responsible for a post-convention change in the ticket — are Biden loyalists. Many would prefer to lose than to remove a sitting president from the ticket, which would represent an acceptance of the idea he is unfit for office. If this shocking event occurred, there would be fresh controversy over his replacement.

Those same Biden loyalists dominating the proceedings are Kamala Harris loyalists, by and large. A fight among Democrats in Chicago over the nomination could be as damaging as a weakened incumbent president. The only way this would work is if Joe Biden himself initiates it, and if there’s a clear and immediate consensus on a successor.

How bad is Biden’s performance? The betting markets are turning on him.

Polymarket’s site appears to have crashed, so it’s not clear how much higher (or lower) the odds went up from. But they’re not the only betting market out there. PredictIt, another betting site, just saw Biden’s odds plummet.

As Olivia pointed out, optics are everything. There’s no substantive disaster of an answer from Biden that’s causing this, or a knockout answer from Trump. But Biden is slurring, keeping his mouth open, and giving confusing, rambling answers — it has all made his odds plunge.

In a sign of the way things are going for the president tonight, Donald Trump casually referred to him as “Brandon,” which is code for a vulgar epithet. The president did not respond forcefully.

Trump struggled to answer a basic question about abortion rights on Thursday. Asked by moderator Dana Bash about his position on the abortion pill, Trump falsely claimed that the Supreme Court had approved the pill and meandered on about how, after Roe v. Wade, “everyone wanted to get it back to the states.” (This is also not true.) Trump is still trying to have it both ways. He wants to take credit for ending Roe while saying it’s “important to believe in the exceptions” for rape, incest, and life of the mother. “Some people don’t follow your heart, but you have to get elected,” he said. Leaving it to the states, of course, means that millions of women face restrictive bans across the country.

Biden had an opening to say just that — and he tried. But he rambled, speaking of women who face rape at the hands of their relatives. Later he said that he wanted to restore Roe, and Trump responded with an old lie about abortions in the ninth month of pregnancy. The exchange did not inspire confidence. On one side, American women have a liar who would strip their remaining abortion rights away. On the other is Biden, who is struggling to make a case for himself tonight. We need more than this.

Debates are about optics, and always have been, since Nixon versus Kennedy. From the moment Biden stiffly ambled over to the lectern, watching him has been a heart-stopping experience. Trump is rambling, yes. And he’s coming in hot. He’s probably overdoing it. But there’s no denying that he comes across as an alert human being compared to Biden.

And then on another screen, I have been watching “the Real Debate,” the event hosted by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who was formally excluded from the CNN debate, on X, moderated by John Stossel. Kennedy is standing onstage beside a screen where the CNN debate is streaming. He’s answering questions after Trump and Biden answer them. And so far my impression is that it’s very obvious why Biden and Trump did not want him on their stage. Besides literally being and appearing much younger, he has been sharp and thoughtful in his responses. I think the combination of him and Trump both speaking forcefully would have really made Biden look weak, even weaker than he seems right now.

Joe Biden has started this debate looking wan. His voice is soft, he has looked down, and he lost his train of thought during one answer, ending on the garbled note, “We beat Medicare.” He meant they beat Pharma by winning a provision to allow Medicare to negotiation prescription drugs, but it did not track in real time.

If Biden does not turn around his performance over the course of this, I think Democrats will reach full-blown panic.

Joe Biden’s hesitant, halting performance at the presidential debate was clearest when he trailed off in the middle of an answer.

The first question of the night was about the economy, particularly around inflation. Biden pretty much side-stepped the question. What he wanted to talk about was jobs — creating about 15 million of them, by Biden’s count — and lowering the cost of some drugs, like insulin. Trump pointed out that most of these jobs are “bounce-back” jobs, which is partly true, but that’s actually more of a phenomenon that happened during the last year under Trump. Still, it’s hard to argue with the premise of the question — a basket of goods that cost $100 on the day that Biden took office is now about $120.

During President Joe Biden’s first statement, he delivered his message clearly, reminding Americans of the crises that America was facing as Trump exited the White House. But he spoke quietly and sounded like he needed to clear his throat. For an 81-year-old candidate who needs to show voters that he is energetic and healthy, it wasn’t the perfect delivery.

These guys don’t like each other, if you didn’t know.

When Trump got off his plane in Atlanta on Thursday afternoon, Melania was not with him. While the former First Lady has skipped almost all of her husband’s 2024 campaign events and court appearances, failing to show up for one of only two presidential debates is a pretty stunning move.

As I just wrote in another post:

We don’t know for sure that Melania isn’t in Atlanta — though CNN did run the chyron “MELANIA TRUMP NOT ATTENDING DEBATE” about half an hour before the event started. Theoretically, Melania could have driven up from Mar-a-Lago or snuck off the plane in a janitor’s cart like Taylor Swift at the Eras Tour. But a surprise appearance seems unlikely at this point.

There will be no audience at the debate, so if Melania wanted to show her support for her husband’s campaign exiting the plane by his side may have been her only opportunity.

In my debate preview I mentioned two possible “wild cards” that could change the dynamics of the debate. It’s looking like neither of them will appear on the table. One was a possible U.S. Supreme Court decision on Trump’s immunity claims (likely to be rejected in whole or in part) or on the use of obstruction-of-justice charges by Biden administration prosecutors in Trump’s case and that of his January 6 friends. SCOTUS is saving release of those decisions for tomorrow or Monday, perhaps consciously trying not to become a political football in the debate. The other possible wild card was a reveal of Trump’s running mate, which he has been dropping lots of hints about, and who will definitely have to be announced by the time Republicans gather in Milwaukee on July 15.

Unless Trump announces his veep during the debate itself, which would seem extremely unlikely (it would, among other things, waste a day or two of media coverage he’d get by making this announcement almost any other time), this card will remain unplayed in Atlanta. A number of veep prospects (e.g., Doug Burgum, Marco Rubio, Tim Scott, Elise Stefanik, and J.D. Vance) have been summoned to a big donor watch party being hosted by former U.S. senator from Georgia Kelly Loeffler and her husband. More than ever, they must feel like extras in Trump’s act.

Maybe Biden’s. Per a new FiveThirtyEight poll:

According to our poll, which was conducted using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, expectations are relatively low for both candidates, but especially for Biden. On average, likely voters gave him an expectations score of 2.58 out of 5, halfway between “about average” and “poor.” That could be an advantage for the president; if he turns in even an average debate performance, he will exceed many Americans’ expectations.

Biden’s low expectations score is probably related to concerns about his advanced age — and Republican efforts to depict him as doddering and foolish. We also asked respondents to our poll to evaluate the candidates’ fitness for the presidency on a similar five-point scale.2 On average, they gave Biden a 2.3 out of 5 on physical fitness and a 2.4 out of 5 on mental fitness. (He rated higher, 2.8 out of 5, on emotional fitness.)

The third-party candidate failed to qualify for tonight’s CNN debate, so he’s hosting his own at the same time, featuring just him and a moderator, and his campaign is promoting the live interview as “The Real Debate.”

From Gallup’s summary of the June 3-23 survey (so, all after Trump’s conviction):

The poll finds that about twice as many Republicans are pleased with Trump being the GOP nominee as Democrats are with Biden leading their party’s ticket. Overall, less than half of Americans view either candidate favorably, think either has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have, and say they agree with either on the issues that are most important to them.

While Biden and Trump – the two oldest major party candidates to seek the U.S. presidency – are separated by just three years in age, Americans perceive Biden’s advanced age as a far greater liability. Biden is also viewed as too liberal by a majority of Americans, whereas public opinion of Trump’s ideology is mixed.

Everything we know about presidential debates generally, and about this stubbornly even contest in particular, tells us tonight’s debate is unlikely to fundamentally change what happens in November. But you wouldn’t know that from the mainstream-media chatter about the encounter in Atlanta. Today’s Politico Playbook made this modest assertion:

It’s hard to overstate the significance of this moment. Both candidates are competing for an ever-smaller fraction of undecided voters in what’s shaping up to be one of the closest and contentious elections in modern history, and more than 70 percent of Americans are expected to tune in tonight, as Adam Wren notes this morning. And what happens tonight could set the tone on the campaign trail for the next 11 weeks, since the two won’t come face to face for their second debate until September (presuming that debate happens). It is ‘the highest-stakes hate watch of any modern presidential campaign,’ as Adam puts it.

I would not dispute the “high-stakes” assessment of the Biden-Trump race, and perhaps the sky-high predictions of viewership won’t be too far off. But let’s not forget these are the two best-known pols ever to face off in a presidential election, at the very least since Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison had their rematch in 1892, and they’ve debated twice before. Already-decided voters are the most likely to tune in, and most of them already believe they know who will win. Beware snap judgments and snap polls after this one; it will likely be a few days at the least before we see how the debate affects the race, if it does at all.

Matt Stieb observes that CNN’s big mute button might not contain Trump as well as some expect:

[Trump] has a rather loud speaking voice — meaning that he may still be heard clearly on Joe Biden’s microphone. And while viewers may not be able to detect Trump’s doubtlessly fine-tuned arguments at all times, he could certainly make it harder for Biden’s less resonant voice to come through.

“Trump’s baseline noncombative conversational volume is not higher than average,” says New York’s Washington correspondent Olivia Nuzzi, who has spent a decent chunk of time with the former president over the years. “But he is combative — and he is especially combative in a debate. He is also hyperaware of how cameras and microphones work and operates as much like a producer as he does as ‘talent.’ So if anyone is going to understand how to project their voice in such a way to be picked up on other mics, it’s him.”

Read the rest of Matt’s post here.

Our own Ed Kilgore has weighed in on what he’ll be watching for tonight, including whether or not Trump can exceed some very low expectations:

He doesn’t need to “win” the Atlanta debate. And in fact he’s done everything possible to cast the event as a “rigged” encounter heavily slanted to favor his opponent — from attacking sponsor CNN (long a MAGA target) to reigniting an old feud with co-moderator Jake Tapper to suggesting Biden will be jacked up on stimulants. Aside from lowering expectations for his performance to a manageable level, this tactic reinforces Trump’s larger argument that he’s fighting powerful elites who stole the 2020 election from him and are engaged in outrageous schemes (most notably the “lawfare” of his federal and state criminal prosecutions) to keep him from returning to the White House.

“Winning” or “losing” aside, the rules for the CNN debate may inadvertently help Trump by limiting opportunities for him to appear as a raging bully since his microphone will go silent when his time has expired and/or when Biden is speaking. Anything other than wild incoherence may be adjudged as a successful effort by Trump to appear less terrifying and more “presidential.”

Read the rest of Ed’s primer here.

You can watch the debate online (for free) at CNN.com, C-SPAN.org, MSNBC.com, CNBC.com, and on those outlets’ streaming apps. The debate will also air on CNN and be simulcast on CBS News, C-SPAN, NBC News, MSNBC, ABC News, Fox News, OAN, NewsNation, Newsmax, Telemundo, PBS, and Spectrum News, among other stations.