Photo: Courtesy of AMPAS
Oscar Futures: Does ‘Into the Wild’ Have a Shot?
Every week between now and January 22, Vulture’s Oscar Futures will listen to insider gossip, comb the Oscar blogs, and out-and-out guess (when necessary) to track who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted nomination.
| Best Picture |  UP: Into the Wild. Last week, it seemed DOA, but a strong showing in SAG nominations launches Sean Penn's movie back into the mix. Of course, last year, the actors, who love movies directed by other actors, nominated Bobby. |
 DOWN: Juno. The expected multiple SAG nods for this actors' showcase didn't materialize. Could it be in trouble? |
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| CURRENT PREDIX: American Gangster, Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men | ||
| Best Director |  UP: Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd. Rave reviews finally arrive, with the Times calling it "close to a masterpiece." |
 DOWN: Mike Nichols, Charlie Wilson's War. The reviews make a point of the movie's lighter-than-air tone, which is good (in that it actually makes us want to watch it), but bad for the serious-movie-loving Academy. |
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| CURRENT PREDIX: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood; Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men; Sean Penn, Into the Wild; Ridley Scott, American Gangster; Joe Wright, Atonement | ||
| Best Actor |  UP: Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd. No SAG nomination, but Depp can console himself with his jaw-dropping reviews. |
 DOWN: Denzel Washington, American Gangster. No SAG nomination, and he doesn't have a batch of fresh press this week to dry his tears on. |
| CURRENT PREDIX: Mathieu Amalric, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly; Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood; Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd; James McAvoy, Atonement; Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises; |
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| Best Actress |  UP: Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart. An SAG nomination adds to this overlooked performance's sudden heat. |
 DOWN: Amy Adams, Enchanted. An SAG nomination gave her Junebug candidacy legitimacy, and her SAG snub hurts her this year. |
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| Best Supporting Actor |  UP: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War. Even those critics who find the movie too lightweight praise his performance. |
 DOWN: Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood. This is the kind of showy performance that other actors love, but Dano is hurt by |
| CURRENT PREDIX: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men; Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War; Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild; Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton | ||
| Best Supporting Actress |  UP: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton. A month ago, observers wondered if her intense performance would be overlooked, but Golden Globe and SAG nominations place her firmly in the final five. |
 DOWN: Saoirse Ronan, Atonement. Probably the primary victim of Atonement's complete whiff in the SAG noms. |
| CURRENT PREDIX: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There; Ruby Dee, American Gangster; Julia Roberts, Charlie Wilson's War; |
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