After a relatively uneventful start to the season, Survivor 43 has really heated up over the last couple of episodes as personality clashes and messy gameplay have added a much-needed spark to the proceedings. Now, after six weeks of bead collecting, bag snooping, and brutal blindsides, the much-anticipated merge is upon us.
So, as we head into the next phase of competition, who is in the best position to win it all? That’s what I will be looking at today in these updated power rankings of the 12 remaining players, organized from most likely to least likely to win. You can check out the previous premiere power rankings here, and this list will be updated once again at final six to see how these predictions held up.
1. Karla
Moving up to the top spot (ranked seventh after the premiere) is Karla, who proved to be the most skilled player throughout the pre-merge. After finding herself in the middle of the Coco tribe, she used her position to gain information and secure control. On top of that, she’s the only player who managed to keep their idol a secret — though that is bound to come out eventually. So long as Karla continues to manage her threat level, she has a fantastic chance at reaching the final tribal council.
2. Sami
The Baka tribe was the first to go after one of their own, and Sami was a key figure in pushing the votes onto Elie. I think this was the right move for the excitable pet cremator, as he’s shown a willingness to work with others and an adaptability that should serve him well in the merge. The only real worry is his closeness to Gabler and the glorious chaos that could come from that relationship.
3. Jesse
I ranked Jesse No. 1 after the premiere, and I still feel pretty confident about his chances. He’s been one of the season’s most consistent narrators, always filling the audience in on his strategies and relationships. We have a solid understanding of his approach to the game, and that’s usually a strong sign of longevity. Jesse’s obstacle will be when it comes time to kick his game into the next gear and whether he can navigate the spotlight that comes with it.
4. James
In the premiere, James said he thrives in chaos, but that hasn’t been the game we’ve seen from the event planner so far this season. If anything, James has stamped out any sign of chaos at the first opportunity. He has worked hand in hand with Karla, taking out paranoid allies like Lindsay and advantage-holding threats like Geo. Maybe the chaos of the merge will truly test how James is under pressure.
5. Owen
I keep going back and forth on how I feel about Owen’s chances. On the one hand, he’s been made to look a bit goofy and out of his element, especially in terms of the survival aspects of the show. But on the other hand, we’re always made aware of his strategies and positioning within the tribe dynamics. Most telling of all, though, is that multiple Baka tribe members spoke of how dangerous a player Owen would be if they let him get far. Remember, that’s how players talked about eventual winner Maryanne last season. Now that we’ve reached the merge, perhaps we’ll see Owen fulfill those prophecies.
6. Cassidy
Despite her name being on the chopping block both times that Coco went to tribal council, Cassidy has shown an impressive social game that has kept her safe with the majority. Her game isn’t loud or flashy, but that’s intentional, as she previously told us her plan is to be sneaky and operate behind the scenes. Now that she’s in the larger merged tribe, it gives Cassidy more places to hide as she plots and schemes her way to the top.
7. Noelle
It’s been an up-and-down pre-merge for Noelle, who saw her closest ally Justine booted at Vesi’s first tribal council. But rather than letting this setback curtail her game, Noelle stepped up and proved her worth to the tribe by absolutely smashing it in challenges. On top of that, she swiftly bagged herself a “Steal a Vote†advantage, which could come in useful at an unpredictable merge.
8. Cody
I must admit, I was wrong about Cody. I thought his huge personality might grate on others and see him booted early. Instead, his fun-loving attitude has won over most of his tribemates, to the point where other players have spoken of how much they love him. That said, there is a chaotic side to Cody, as we saw briefly during the camp raid. And when that side comes out, I worry about the repercussions.
9. Dwight
As one of the most underedited players in the season, it’s difficult to get a grasp on where Dwight stands in the game. He doesn’t appear to be on anyone’s radar currently, which should allow him to skate through the next few rounds. But, on the flip side, he hasn’t done anything as of yet that would make people want to vote for him as the winner. Dwight’s success or failure will come down to whether he can pull off a move or two that he can claim as his own.
10. Jeanine
After losing her closest ally, Jeanine is in a tough spot. Not only that, but it’s pretty much public knowledge now that she has an idol. So the target on her back is growing by the day. Her best move going forward would be to slide into the background for a bit. Now that her alliance with Elie has been split up, perhaps she won’t be such an immediate threat. Just don’t go searching through any more bags!
11. Ryan
The merge feast can be an opportune time to build new relationships, but I’m not sure proposing a final-seven alliances to the entire table was the best tactic for Ryan. It feels harsh to say, because Ryan seems like such a decent guy, but he just isn’t built for this game. He almost Drew Christy’d himself last week when he threw a challenge and nearly got booted. And it’s those kinds of glaring mistakes that are going to land him in trouble.
12. Gabler
The confrontation between Gabler and Elie was one of the highlights of the season so far: just pure awkward hilarity of two people on completely different changes. But for as entertaining as Gabler’s messiness is, I just can’t picture him winning the season. His play style is too erratic and in-your-face, and sooner or later, he’s going to find himself in the hot seat.