Every week between now and January 25 when the nominations are announced, movies and stars will help themselves — or sometimes, hurt themselves — in the Oscar race. Vulture’s Oscar Futures will listen for insider gossip, comb the blogs, and out-and-out guess when necessary to track who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted nomination.
| Best Director |  UP: David O. Russell, The Fighter. Hey, a surprise DGA nod (which came at the expense of the Coens). He may sneak in there yet. Honorable mention: Darren Aronofsky, who also got a nomination, and told Armond White where to stick it at the NYFCC Awards. |
 DOWN: Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit. Their movie was a "late bloomer," so their DGA snub might not mean too much. But still! (Also, if the Academy likes Grit AND The Fighter, watch your back, Tom Hooper.) |
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| CURRENT PREDIX: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit; David Fincher, The Social Network; Tom Hooper, The King's Speech; Christopher Nolan, Inception. | ||
| Best Actor |  UP: Jeff Bridges, True Grit. Not that he gives a shit, but his episode of American Masters was pretty much the most exciting thing to happen in his dull category this week. |
 DOWN: Javier Bardem, Biutiful. Well, none of the top five contenders derailed their campaigns by doing something stupid in the past few days, so Javier's chances still don't look too great. |
| CURRENT PREDIX: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network; Colin Firth, The King's Speech; James Franco, 127 Hours. | ||
| Best Actress |  UP: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right. She dealt with Armond White's hectoring at the NYFCC awards like a champ, and with only a little crying. |  DOWN: Natalie Portman, Black Swan. "Is she overexposed?" asks Pete Hammond, before her topless perfume ad hits the Internet. (She'll still win, though.) |
| CURRENT PREDIX: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Natalie Portman, Black Swan. | ||
| Best Supporting Actor |  UP: Christian Bale, The Fighter. He was the front-runner even before he started showing up to awards shows in the guise of our lord and savior. Give these other guys a chance, Christian! |
 DOWN: Andrew Garfield, The Social Network. Not that he was going to beat Bale anyway, but releasing the first photo of him in a superhero costume three days before the Golden Globes seems like a no-win proposition, right? |
| CURRENT PREDIX: Christian Bale, The Fighter; Andrew Garfield, The Social Network; John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Jeremy Renner, The Town; |
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| Best Supporting Actress |  UP: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit. Scott Rudin explains away that category-fraud thing: "Mattie Ross's character is really the impetus for change in Rooster Cogburn’s character." Everybody happy now? |
 DOWN: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech. Honesty like this probably doesn't help her here: "I thought [The King's Speech] was a boys' film ... Sometimes you get nominated for the wrong things."
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| CURRENT PREDIX: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Melissa Leo, The Fighter; Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit; Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom. | ||