To quote likely top Grammy nominee Taylor Swift, it’s comin’ back around. Two years ago, the Recording Academy sprung a last-minute change on nomination day by announcing that Album, Record, and Song of the Year, along with Best New Artist, would increase from eight to ten nominees each. This was just a few years after those categories jumped from five to eight in the first place. The extra space couldn’t have gone to worse use, making room for projects like Ye’s Donda and ABBA’s Voyage. Now, after two cycles of unruliness, the Academy is going back to eight selections. It won’t totally eliminate the threat of random nominations — the Grammys have been providing those since the beginning — but it should keep things a bit more focused. And in a year when acts like SZA, Miley Cyrus, and Olivia Rodrigo will be contending, that’s what we’ll need. As much as anything the Recording Academy does can be predicted, here’s who I’m expecting to be nominated for the Big Four awards at the 2024 Grammys. (The Academy will announce the nominees on November 10 at 11 a.m. ET.)
Album of the Year
There may never be as big of an AOTY front-runner as Taylor Swift’s Midnights. On top of her being a three-time winner, Swift’s tenth album checks all the boxes: commercial success, critical acclaim, staying power. But we have seven more nomination slots to fill. Count in two other albums that have stuck around in 2023: SZA’s SOS, which is still logging top-ten hits, and Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time, the biggest country album of the streaming era. (Some prognosticators seem wary of Wallen’s odds after he blanked amid a controversial cycle for his last album, Dangerous, but I think the Academy’s memory is short and his success will be too big to ignore.) And it’s always safe to bet on a successful followup from a past Best New Artist winner, which would be Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts.
I’m not too confident in many of the year’s other hit albums. “Flowers†may have been big, but Miley Cyrus’s Endless Summer Vacation was largely forgettable, and it’s tough to predict a breakout year when she’s never had any success with the Academy. Bad Bunny’s Un Verano Sin Ti snuck in as a bona fide blockbuster, but Karol G’s all-Spanish Mañana Será Bonito could have a harder time without the same streaming numbers. Luke Combs’s Getting Old and Zach Bryan’s self-titled release may have a chance — Combs more so, thanks to the success of his “Fast Car†cover — but it’s hard to justify a second country nod when many years don’t even include one.
I’m also not confident in some past AOTY nominees looking to return. Jon Batiste surprised nearly everyone when he won the 2022 trophy for We Are, but this time, he doesn’t have gigs on The Late Show or Pixar’s Soul to boost his visibility. Ed Sheeran’s stripped-back Subtract is his biggest Grammy bait in years, but that album hasn’t sustained much chatter — even he has already moved on to a new one. And while Foo Fighters made an emotional return without Taylor Hawkins on But Here We Are (their best album since their previous 2012 AOTY nom, Wasting Light), it’s been rare for such a straightforward rock album to make the cut lately. It’s much easier when you have cross-field appeal, like past nominees Haim or Black Pumas — or boygenius’s The Record, which should get a boost from the pop and alternative crowds. That album has overperformed all year, from cracking the top-ten of the Billboard charts to bringing the supergroup to Madison Square Garden, and can build on member Phoebe Bridgers’s previous four nods from 2021. Lana Del Rey’s pristine Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd., which will span the pop and alternative fields, will get a nod with recent random headlines helping her stay on voters’ minds. (Though I could also see another conversation-driving album produced by Jack Antonoff playing spoiler: Being Funny in a Foreign Language, by the 1975.)
And how about a little success story called Barbie The Album? Remember, this charted multiple big singles and features Grammy darlings Dua Lipa, Billie Eilish, Lizzo, and Mark Ronson. (The Academy also loves a hit film soundtrack with their favorite people involved, like Kendrick Lamar’s Black Panther and T Bone Burnett’s O Brother, Where Art Thou?) Another safe bet filled with big names and headlined by someone who everyone has worked with: Heroes & Villains, by Atlanta trap architect Metro Boomin, which features Future, Travis Scott, 21 Savage, and many more. And if you’re counting on 21 Savage and Drake to get a nod for Her Loss, amid Drake’s middling streak and slights at the Academy, that’ll be your loss.
Record of the Year
Record of the Year ostensibly recognizes performance and production, but more often than not, it’s really about hits. So let’s set a rule: If your song spent multiple weeks at No. 1, you get a nomination. Congratulations to Taylor Swift’s “Anti-Hero,†Miley Cyrus’s “Flowers,†Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night,†Olivia Rodrigo’s “vampire,†and Doja Cat’s “Paint the Town Red.†(But rules are made to be broken, so I’m discounting Oliver Anthony Music’s “Rich Men North of Richmond†— the smallest vote of confidence in the Academy’s tastes.) And SZA’s “Kill Bill†feels like it’s been atop the charts all year, so it should make the cut too. Then there’s the matter of two hit covers, which will be eligible here, but not in Song of the Year. Luke Combs’s “Fast Car†was more successful than the Tracy Chapman original, while Metro Boomin, the Weeknd, and 21 Savage revived Mario Winans’s ballad “I Don’t Wanna Know†with a new rap verse as “Creepin’.†I worry the Weeknd’s presence on that track will be detrimental after his public beef with the Academy, and I think “Fast Car†will benefit from more love for Chapman’s take. I’m saving the final spot for a Barbie song — Dua Lipa’s “Dance the Night†is poppier, which tends to play better, but the Academy will never pass up a chance to nominate Billie Eilish. “What Was I Made For?†was made for this.
Song of the Year
The songwriting category continues to be the weirdest of the Big Four. Last year, an intimate ballad by folk-rock hero Bonnie Raitt beat out a list that included more current acts like Gayle and DJ Khaled. The one thing we can still rely on is a fair amount of overlap with the ROTY nominations. The songs from stars who fashion themselves as singer-songwriters will fare the best: “Anti-Hero,†“Kill Bill,†“vampire,†and “What Was I Made For?†I continue to have my worries about Miley Cyrus — who has only been nominated for a solo Grammy once — running the table in the top categories, so I’m not buying “Flowers.†And while Doja Cat may have three past ROTY nods, she only has one in SOTY, so I’m less confident in her as well. Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night,†though, still looks like a pretty good prospect with both pop and country firepower behind it.
Past winner and perennial nominee H.E.R. isn’t much of a threat this year, only submitting her NBA Finals song “The Journey.†But Brandi Carlile is. She’s featured on Nashville fixture Brandy Clark’s “Dear Insecurity,†which should scratch the Academy’s itch for songs about social issues. (Also keep an eye on Tanya Tucker’s “Ready as I’ll Never Be,†co-written and -produced by Carlile as well, after Tucker’s surprise nod for “Bring My Flowers Now†in 2020.) The Academy also loves an emotional rap performance, which Lil Durk and J. Cole’s reflective “All My Life†delivers in spades. If Zach Bryan sneaks into AOTY, I could see a SOTY nod for his Kacey Musgraves duet “I Remember Everythingâ€; same for Foo Fighters’ “Rescued†if they appear elsewhere up top. (But nothing can convince me that the Academy will nominate Lana Del Rey’s “A&W,†a song featuring the hook “This is the experience of being an American whore.â€) Since I’m feeling best about boygenius, though, let’s slot in their triple-writing-threat “Not Strong Enough.â€
Best New Artist
When the Grammys expanded the Big Four to ten nominees each, Best New Artist felt a little squeezed. This tends to be a category where there’s an obvious front-runner and then other artists who are just happy to be nominated. But this year actually has a pretty good crop of talent. Yes, Ice Spice is at the top, and wouldn’t it be sweet if she won BNA as her friend Taylor Swift picked up some general-field hardware too? But she should expect a little competition from her “Boy’s a Liar Pt. 2†collaborator PinkPantheress and another Swift favorite, Gracie Abrams. We may also have a strong slate of Not Actually New nominees, including Noah Kahan, thanks to his breakout year, and Lainey Wilson, who the Academy will finally have to come around on after her massive hauls at the CMA and ACM Awards. (Indie acts Alvvays and Mitski are also among those submitted, for their third and seventh albums, respectively.) Country feels likely to overperform here if Jelly Roll’s story of getting his life back on track can charm voters, as I think it will. Conventional wisdom would hold that most major genres should be represented, but R&B has had an especially difficult showing before, after the Academy missed breakouts like Summer Walker and Giveon. So I’m not as high on former Disney star Coco Jones, but think her promotional blitz should help. I’d also love to see nods for Peso Pluma, Amaarae, and Rema, but it remains really hard to trust the Academy to recognize international artists. So instead, I’ll go with someone more middling — how about Renee Rapp?
And five more questions …
What else could Taylor Swift be nominated for?
Swift is engaging in a pretty coordinated attack. Aside from Album, Record, and Song of the Year, she only submitted in four other categories: Best Pop Solo Performance and Best Music Video for “Anti-Hero,†Best Pop Duo/Group Performance for the “Karma†remix with Ice Spice, and Best Pop Vocal album for Midnights. Part of that’s because Midnights is obviously a pop album, without songs that could wiggle into other fields like country. And part of it is because she’s not submitting anything from Speak Now (Taylor’s Version), after a less-than-stellar showing for Red (TV) in 2022. As for her Eras Tour film and 1989 (TV), those aren’t eligible until next year.
What will the widened Producer and Songwriter of the Year categories look like?
The Academy bumped both of these up to the general field, where everyone — musicians, songwriters, even liner-notes writers — can vote on them. I have a hunch that means we’ll be seeing more big names, especially in Producer. Jack Antonoff will look to three-peat, but Mark Ronson, Aaron Dessner, Metro Boomin, Dan Nigro, and even Grammy favorite Brandi Carlile could be in the mix. (Hell, could Rick Rubin get his first nod in 15 years — with credits for Kesha, Red Hot Chili Peppers, Neil Young, and Lil Uzi Vert — after he sparked a whole Twitter discourse about production?) Songwriter is harder to predict in just its second year, but all of last year’s nominees boasted wide portfolios, even across genres, rather than hinging on one or two hits. That should continue in 2024.
Where will Jon Batiste show up?
Even if Batiste blanks up top, I still think the 2022 dark horse will continue his cross-genre domination — at least in categories that are amenable to him. Look for “Running Away†in Best Traditional R&B Performance, “Butterfly†in Best Americana Performance and Best American Roots Song, and “Movement 18’ Heroes†in Best Jazz Performance. If he has a really good day, “Uneasy†could show up in Best R&B Performance and/or Song, and “Calling My Name†in Best Pop Solo Performance. But crashing Best Alternative Performance (for “Boom For Realâ€) or Best Dance/Electronic Recording (for “Worshipâ€) still feels like a stretch, even for Batiste.
Who will the Best African Music Performance and Best Pop Dance Recording categories make room for?
The Academy earned praise when it introduced the Best Global Music Performance award in 2022, as Afrobeats were crossing over to the U.S. But artists have since criticized West Africa’s dominance over the category — even as an Afrobeats song has yet to win the award. The Grammys’ new solution is to break out African music into a separate category, Best African Music Performance, which will hopefully give due shine to Afrobeats and Afropop while opening up Global Music Performance too. Look out for artists like Burna Boy, Amaarae, Davido, and Rema in African Music Performance, while regional Latin sounds could have a big year in Global Music. (And some artists, like Amaarae or Rema, just might show up in both.) Meanwhile, the Grammys have also added the Best Pop Dance Recording category in response to less-valid criticism after Beyoncé won Best Dance/Electronic Recording last year. With songs like Kylie Minogue’s “Padam Padam†and Troye Sivan’s “Rush†likely to compete, that award also opens a new lane.
Will the Academy take the right-wing bait of “Try That in a Small Town†or “Rich Men North of Richmond�
God, I hope not. Jason Aldean could eke out a nod somewhere in the country field, but those voters have been trending more progressive than Nashville in recent years and have never liked him much anyway. As for Oliver Anthony Music, he’s only entered in Record and Song of the Year, where he’ll have to compete against bonafide pop stars — and right-wing pundits can’t juice the votes.