Every week between now and January 23, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscars race. In our “Oscar Futures†column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
Best Picture
Oppenheimer
The season’s slumbering colossus finally woke up. The Golden Globes thought Oppenheimer was da bomb, handing the film five trophies, second only to La La Land. Now, with Oscar voting underway, the industry precursors are clearing the decks for Christopher Nolan’s movie. Not only did the nuclear-physics drama score every nod it could have expected from the pivotal guild nominations, rivals like Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Poor Things all missed a trick this week. Every Oscar pundit will tell you that you never want to be on top this early, but unlike, say, Power of the Dog, I don’t get the sense the industry is scrambling for alternatives. (At Tuesday’s Governors Awards, the Oppenheimer table was reportedly mobbed by well-wishers.) Rare for a film that’s been the front-runner since July, Oppenheimer has so far avoided a major backlash — can Nolan and company keep it rolling?
The Zone of Interest
The Producers Guild has a reputation for skewing commercial, borne out by its love for films like Wonder Woman and Crazy Rich Asians. So it was all the more notable when Friday’s PGA nominations passed over Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse and The Color Purple in favor of The Zone of Interest, a sober foreign-language contender that has made roughly $600,000 at the domestic box office. If even the PGA is onboard with Jonathan Glazer’s Auschwitz art piece, Zone looks to have booked its ticket for the tenth Best Picture place.
Current Predix
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Best Director
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Payne nabbed the last spot in the Directors Guild of America’s Best Feature category, joining this race’s core four of Gerwig, Lanthimos, Nolan, and Scorsese. Since the directors’ branch rarely replicates the guild’s five, most pundits assume the Holdovers helmer will be left out at the Oscars in favor of flashier competition. Still, the bittersweet comedy has consolidated support over the holiday season, and now looks a threat to take multiple trophies. Perhaps that’s all the oomph Payne needs to earn his fourth directing nomination.
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
If Payne is indeed the DGA nominee who’s bumped, who gets in instead? Knowing this branch, it’ll probably be a European auteur, and while The Zone of Interest’s Jonathan Glazer has the alienating-art-film bonafides, Triet is the one winning the lion’s share of International Feature prizes. The Globes handed her that trophy and Screenplay too, the latter coming over a quintet of highly regarded contenders. With Anatomy of a Fall’s Best Picture place looking like a done deal, there’s every chance Triet sneaks in at the finish line.
Current Predix
Greta Gerwig, Barbie; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon; Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Best Actor
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Look who made this a race! Before the Globes, consensus held that Bradley Cooper would waltz his way to the Oscar podium, until Murphy took Best Actor in Drama as part of the Oppenheimer surge. Sporting a lipstick-stained nose that gave him an unfortunate resemblance to an anti-Irish cartoon from the 1840s, the longtime Nolan collaborator presented a compelling alternative. In his favor: He’s repping a more highly regarded film, and though voters may want to spread the wealth, Team Oppenheimer can argue that, while Cooper is sure to have other awards opportunities down the road, this could be Murphy’s only shot at gold. I also wouldn’t count out the Globes’ other winner, Paul Giamatti, whose impassioned tribute to teachers was the mark of a man gunning for that trophy.
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Is this De Niro in The Irishman all over again? Like Martin Scorsese’s last leading man, DiCaprio is playing a dupe at the mercy of larger forces, in a film where his co-stars have garnered the bulk of the praise. That could explain why he was this year’s surprising SAG snub, replaced by Colman Domingo of Rustin. The Killers campaign made the call early on to throw everything behind Lily Gladstone, and while that worked out even better than they expected, it does leave Leo at the risk of losing his seat on nomination morning. Considering the gusto with which he’s embraced the role of Gladstone’s cheerleader, he might not care.
Current Predix
Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer; Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Best Actress
Annette Bening, Nyad
SAG tossed Annette Bening a life raft this week, handing her a Best Actress nomination over the likes of Greta Lee and Sandra Hüller. Online Oscar-watchers bemoaned the Nyad nom — were they on strike from having good taste? — but this is who the Guild is: They’re always going to love an early-season, kinda-basic contender, especially one that comes from Netflix. While SAG’s winners were the same as Oscar’s the past two years, their nominees have seen less overlap, so the fifth spot here remains very much up in the air.
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Past Lives went home empty-handed on Globes night then blanked at SAG. The gentle romance has earned plenty of respect but perhaps not enough passion, and I wonder if it’s hit its awards-season ceiling. Lee is still in the race, but of the bubble contenders it’s Hüller who has the likelier path to a nomination, since the German actress can count on strong support from the Academy’s international contingent.
Current Predix
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall; Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Margot Robbie, Barbie; Emma Stone, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Only a week ago, bored pundits were speculating whether the alleged front-runner was in danger of being upset. All it took was one nationally televised acceptance speech to right the ship. Coming early in the night, Downey Jr.’s Golden Globe speech delivered every bit of big-honking-movie-star charisma we expected (though following Jo Koy’s monologue surely made him seem even more impressive on that front). He’s got the movie, he’s got the precursors, and he’s got the narrative. I think this might be over.
Charles Melton, May December
The laws of the universe say that as one Internet Boyfriend rises, another must fall. Thus, as Jeremy Allen White enjoyed a triumphant week, Melton’s stock went into meltdown. First, the ostensibly younger, hipper Globes voters declined to hand him their Supporting Actor trophy. Then he and his May December castmates were left out at the SAG nominations. Melton also missed the cut at BAFTA, making this weekend’s Critics Choice Awards his last shot at a winning podium moment.
Current Predix
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling, Barbie; Charles Melton, May December; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz, Ferrari
A guy once told me: Don’t let yourself get attached to any prediction you are not willing to walk away from in 30 seconds flat. So, one week after declaring Cruz out of gas, I’m doing a 180 and proclaiming the Ferrari star a contender again on the basis of her SAG nod. Two years ago Cruz’s Parallel Mothers performance cracked a tough Best Actress race without being nominated at the major precursors, and this year’s supporting race is more open. Still, that was hailed as a career-best achievement for Cruz, and while her turn as scorned wife Laura Ferrari has been acclaimed, I haven’t heard that level of buzz.
Julianne Moore, May December
Dithguthting! May December’s total shutout at the SAG nominations led wags to wonder why Hollywood actors weren’t responding to a movie that painted them as vampiric narcissists. Another snub from the PGA means the dream of Todd Haynes’s first Best Picture nom is fading, but I think Moore and Melton could still hang on, as the Academy’s taste has recently leaned more cinephile-friendly than the precursors’.
Current Predix
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; Jodie Foster, Nyad; Julianne Moore, May December; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers