We’re just a few days away from the most consequential election of our lifetimes. And the most consequential consequence of all is, undoubtedly, how the results will affect the Academy Awards race.
As we like to say, the Oscars aren’t just about what’s onscreen. They’re dependent on industry narratives, a film’s momentum, the elusive notion that it’s their time for a given individual — all of which we duly analyze. But another underrated factor is how vibes in the wider culture influence the awards landscape. The most infamous example came in the Oscar race eight years ago, which was upended halfway through by the election of Donald Trump. Movies like Moonlight and La La Land premiered in one vision of America, then suddenly found themselves competing for trophies in another. More subtly, ensuing controversies around Jussie Smollett and Covington Catholic may have helped voters brush off the online furor over Green Book, and the sour mood created by the failed impeachment a year later probably contributed to the Academy’s willingness to embrace a film as cynical as Parasite.
Of course, it is possible to overstate the impact of outside events, as I know from wrongly predicting that January 6 would doom Glenn Close’s chances of getting nominated for Hillbilly Elegy. Still, for this special election edition of Gold Rush, I thought it would be fun to unplug from present-day anxieties. Rather than speculate on how a Trump win could boost Anora’s chances — something I don’t think any of us have the energy for right now — let’s travel back in time to the fall of 2016, and enter an alternate universe where 12,000 Wisconsinites shifted their votes from red to blue. (Let’s say they all went to see The Girl on the Train and were reminded of the importance of Trusting Women.) Taking a page from my colleague Joe Reid’s book, here’s what happens to awards season in the mirror universe where Hillary Clinton wins the election instead.
1.
La La Land wins for real.
In our timeline, Moonlight’s surprise Best Picture win came during the traumatic opening weeks of the Trump presidency, which likely helped rally voters to its side. In a world where Clinton pulls through, I think the race turns out a lot closer to the consensus pre-election view, which held that La La Land was the dazzling cinematic achievement, while Moonlight was a tiny gem that could hopefully find wider recognition. Thus, when Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway announce La La Land as the winner in this timeline’s 2017 Oscars, they’re not making a mistake: Damien Chazelle’s musical really has won Best Picture, and producer Fred Berger gets to finish his speech. Meanwhile, as time goes by, Moonlight’s reputation as an overlooked classic gets ever stronger.
Conversely, with no need to serve as a post-election security blanket, Arrival has far less cultural impact. Denis Villeneuve still gets the Dune gig, but after the failure of Blade Runner 2049, he lacks the cachet to demand the story be split into two films. He struggles to condense the material, and Villeneuve’s Dune winds up a fascinating misfire with an incredibly rushed final act.
2.
Three Billboards is less of a thing.
I don’t know if it’s correct to suggest, as The Good Fight once did, that a world where Clinton wins is also one where Harvey Weinstein never receives his comeuppance. But I do think that, without a confessed pussy-grabber in the White House, the Me Too movement looks very different. Perhaps it’s more a slow drip-drip of revelations about individual bad men instead of the full-scale cultural reckoning we saw in the fall of 2017. Therefore, when Martin McDonagh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri arrives onto the scene, its themes resonate less than they did in our timeline: The story of one woman’s fiery protest against powerful men doesn’t hit as hard now that a woman’s in power. Instead of sweeping the season, Frances McDormand winds up locked in a threeway Actress race with The Shape of Water’s Sally Hawkins, who wins the BAFTA, and Lady Bird’s Saoirse Ronan, who wins most of the critics’ prizes. On Oscar night in 2018, the prize goes to Ronan, continuing the Obama-era trend of ingénues winning Best Actress. Ronan does not close her acceptance speech with the phrase “inclusion rider,†so SEO bloggers get a few extra hours of sleep that night.
As there’s less buzz around McDormand’s performance, the backlash against Three Billboards’ handling of police brutality kicks in earlier, and for longtime character actor Sam Rockwell, the nomination itself becomes the win. Instead, The Florida Project’s Willem Dafoe cruises to a career-achievement victory in the Supporting Actor race, and all the rise-of-A24 trend pieces that didn’t get written when Moonlight lost Best Picture get written now instead. This also means that Woody Harrelson doesn’t get his coattail nomination, and the fifth Supporting Actor spot goes to none other than … Call Me by Your Name’s Armie Hammer!
With the nation’s white liberals unchastened, Get Out receives zero nominations. However, The Shape of Water still wins Best Picture. In every timeline, people love it when she fucks the fish-man.
3.
Barry Jenkins and Glenn Close finally get their due.
Two years after its release, Moonlight has become the consensus top pick in listicles naming the best films to lose Best Picture. Anticipation is high for Barry Jenkins’s follow-up, If Beale Street Could Talk, which wins the People’s Choice Award at TIFF. Green Book premieres at the same festival, but its message about looking past each other’s differences feels less pressing in a world where Donald Trump has not just nominated Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, and response to the interracial buddy dramedy is muted. Beale Street rides its early momentum to a Best Director win for Jenkins, though once again he’s pipped at the finish line. A smaller Me Too movement means Academy members have fewer qualms about voting for a Bryan Singer movie, so they are free to follow their hearts and award 2019’s top prize to their beloved Bohemian Rhapsody.
In a bid to recreate the success of “Pokémon Go to the polls,†president Clinton comes out in favor of the Academy’s plan to create an Oscar for the “Best Popular Film.†This does not stop the organization from scrapping the idea, nor the Democrats from suffering a disastrous midterm defeat. In this light The Favourite, a satire about an incompetent female ruler, is greeted very differently. The Best Actress race becomes a psychological re-staging of the 2016 Democratic primary: The Bernie contingent goes gaga for Olivia Colman, while centrists rally around The Wife’s Glenn Close, who is seen as an even more obvious Hillary stand-in than she was in our universe. On Oscar night, the Hollywood Establishment circles the metaphorical wagons around the embattled president, ensuring that, after seven nominations, Glenn Close finally gets her Oscar!
4.
An Utterly Twisted Result.
By year three of the Clinton presidency, the Best Picture trophy has gone to a couple of movies about women and queer people. You know what that means — is it time for straight white men to have a comeback? Coincidentally or not, all of the top contenders in 2020 are male-focused movies: 1917, Ford v. Ferrari, The Irishman, Joker, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Since liberal journalists have not been negatively polarized against Joker by the daily insanities of the Trump era, Todd Phillips’s film winds up sweeping the Oscars, taking Picture, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Score, and Costume Design. Parasite, a modest box-office success out of South Korea, wins Foreign Language Film.
This brings us to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, at which point the issue of who’s in the White House is less influential on the Oscar race than, you know, everything else that happened. Still, we can be sure that there would not be a Hillbilly Elegy movie, which means there’s an open seat in the 2021 Supporting Actress race — hello, Jodie Foster in The Mauritanian! Anyway, I hope you’ve enjoyed this little exercise. Next time, let me explain how CODA doesn’t win Best Picture if Vladimir Putin doesn’t invade Ukraine.
Oscar Futures: Can Wicked Defy Gravity?
Every week between now and January 17, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscars race. In our “Oscar Futures†column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
Best Picture
Up ⬆ Wicked
Something has changed within the Oscar race; something is not the same. Now that the long-awaited movie musical has ended its embargo, pundits are rejoicifying. “No one was more skeptical than me about a Wicked movie,†says Jenelle Riley, who calls the screen adaptation “a joyous surprise.†The movie is currently on track to gross a bajillion dollars, and its swankified crafts look certain to be recognized below-the-line. While recent musicals have received only disrespectation from the Academy, there’s a definite shortage of blockbusters in the field right now. After facing off at the Thanksgiving box-office, Wicked and Gladiator II could have a rematch for the tenth Best Picture spot. Which one will prove more pop-uu-laar?
Up ⬆ A Real Pain
Opening in limited release this weekend is Jesse Eisenberg’s Sundance sensation, a two-hander about cousins reconnecting with their roots on a Holocaust tour of Poland. The film seems tailor-made to attract awards attention for one of its stars, though I’d wondered if it might be too slight to crack the Best Picture race. Rapturous reviews (NPR’s John Powers calls it “an almost perfect little filmâ€) have made me reconsider. Eisenberg’s low-key approach may feel small, but his themes couldn’t be bigger.
.
Current Predix
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, September 5, Sing Sing, Wicked
Best Director
Down ⬇ Clint Eastwood, Juror No. 2
If Juror No. 2 does wind up being Eastwood’s final film — an assumption driven more by actuarial accounting than anything the 94-year-old has said publicly — it’s a muted farewell for the five-time Oscar winner. The legal drama is being dumped in less than 50 screens this weekend, an unkind fate for a film critics call a decent programmer. “There’s a meat-and-potatoes quality to Juror No. 2 that, in Eastwood’s hands, feels richly satisfying,†says Scott Tobias. Eastwood’s days of shaking up the Oscar race are likely over, but at least he’s receiving kinder notices than this weekend’s other ’90s Best Director winner …
Down ⬇ Robert Zemeckis, Here
You’re saying the new Robert Zemeckis movie is a terrible amalgamation of cheap sentimentality and ungodly CGI effects? I’m shocked. Here is an adaptation of a graphic novel that depicts the same location over millions of years; reviews slam the film for feeling roughly that long. Says our own Alison Willmore: “It’s a bold formal choice to regard the world through a fixed point in space, and, unfortunately, it’s all in service of the biggest pile of schmaltz you’ll see this year.â€
.
Current Predix
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez; Sean Baker, Anora; Edward Berger, Conclave; Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Best Actor
Up ⬆ Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Eisenberg has essentially cast himself as himself: a person “living with material security and appropriate antidepressants,†he told The New Yorker, seeking “a connection to something bigger, something historic, something traumatic.†He gives the less showy performance of the film’s two leads, though I’ve met viewers who also found it the more affecting one. He could get pulled in on his co-star’s coattails, though ultimately Original Screenplay feels the more likely place for Eisenberg to be recognized.
Down ⬇ Daniel Craig, Queer
Writing about the Gotham Award nominations can feel a little incestuous: The noms are decided by small committees of New York journalists, some of whom are my co-workers. I might as well just Slack them! Still, it was notable that the Gothams handed a Best Feature nomination to Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers while snubbing his other film, Queer, entirely. A missed opportunity for this difficult film to gain traction, though on the bright side, the Queer trailer also bowed to a positive — if very sweaty — reception.
.
Current Predix
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist; Daniel Craig, Queer; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing; Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Best Actress
Up ⬆ Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Color me surprised: Erivo turns in a sincere, naturalistic performance at the center of Wicked, all the more remarkable for doing so while entirely green. And of course, she is the only Best Actress contender this year who has the benefit of singing “Defying Gravity.†(Though I’d argue the movie does her the disservice of chopping up her big moment to fit in a CGI action sequence.) It’s powerhouse work worthy of a nomination, but I’d feel more optimistic about Erivo’s chances if this category wasn’t such a minefield. With so many heavy-hitters in Musical/Comedy, she can’t even count on winning the Globe.
Up ⬆ Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Kidman didn’t just score her expected Best Lead Performance nom at the Gothams; Babygirl also got into Best Feature ahead of more heralded A24 contenders like The Brutalist and Sing Sing. A small honor, yes, but one that may point to more critical laurels to come for the BDSM-tinged erotic dramedy. Celebratory milks for everyone!
.
Current Predix
Karla SofÃa Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths; Angelina Jolie, Maria; Nicole Kidman, Babygirl; Mikey Madison, Anora
Best Supporting Actor
Up ⬆ Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Culkin’s part in A Real Pain is so perfect for him it’s hard to believe he almost didn’t play it. “Eisenberg has generously gifted his co-star with the sort of raging-id role that most actors could only dream of,†says David Fear, “and Culkin rewards [him] with the single greatest, funniest, most cringe-comic and heartbreaking performance of his career.†There are shades of Roman Roy here, but with enough of a twist to make this performance feel like its own thing. Ask Laura Dern if reminding voters of your Emmy-winning HBO character goes well on the Oscar trail.
Up ⬆ Yura Borisov, Anora
The Gothams planted a flag in their gender-neutral Supporting category, proclaiming Borisov’s taciturn henchman the Anora dude worth considering. He’s giving the quietest performance in the movie, but it helps that he’s also the character you’re rooting for by the end.
.
Current Predix
Yura Borisov, Anora; Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Best Supporting Actress
Up ⬆ Ariana Grande, Wicked
Grande has been preparing to play the role of Galinda for basically her whole career. Little surprise that she’s one of the standouts of Wicked, but what’s more unexpected is the way she does it: by turning the good witch into a mid-century screwball heroine. She’s a hoot, and could elbow her way into this wide-open category. Voters don’t always embrace a carpet-bagging pop-star, but maybe with two of them in the race this year, that’ll change. Is the Internet ready for a world where the final spot in Supporting Actress comes down to Ariana Grande versus Selena Gomez?
Down ⬇ Joan Chen, Dìdi
A Gotham nomination is like losing your virginity — the pleasure of the accomplishment is less than the sadness of missing out on it. An under-the-radar hopeful like Chen could have used the visibility boost that would have come from getting on the board early, but with the Gothams going elsewhere, she’ll have to hope the Spirit Awards are kinder.
.
Current Predix
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson; Felicity Jones, The Brutalist; Saoirse Ronan, Blitz; Isabella Rossellini, Conclave; Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
More From Gold Rush
- The 12 Oscar Contenders of Christmas
- Oscars Shortlists (and Those Pesky Critics) Shake Things Up
- Emilia Pérez Leads the Oscar-Nominations Shortlist