Can I Interest You in Some Emmy Predictions?

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Any awards watcher worth their salt knows one thing: Nomination Morning is always more exciting than Awards Evening. By the time the ceremony comes around, it’s pretty obvious who’s going to win. The real suspense comes on nomination day, when nearly every category has a fringe bottom contender or two who could get elbowed out by a surprise or long shot. Plus, it truly is an honor just to be nominated; recognition matters, even if it isn’t in the form of a statue.

On Wednesday morning, the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards will announce their nominees, and even in this strike-depleted, post-Succession landscape, there are a ton of worthy shows and performers on the precipice of that recognition. I pulled out the 23 top categories, with apologies to the writers and directors (you’ll have your moment in this column soon enough). Here’s who I think are most likely to be nominated, along with shows and performances I’m probably underestimating, which snubs will make people the most enraged online, and which longest of long shots deserve to be on the ballot.

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Outstanding Drama Series

Sh�gun (FX)
The Crown (Netflix)
Slow Horses (Apple TV+)
The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
The Gilded Age (HBO)
Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
3 Body Problem (Netflix)
The Curse (Showtime)

With the Drama and Comedy Series categories locked in for eight nominees apiece, there’s a ton of opportunity for shows at the edge of the awards radar to land a nomination slot, even with Sh�gun defecting from the Limited Series categories to Drama. Will The Crown’s tepidly received final season be enough to challenge FX’s big, new, expensive-looking, viewership-record-breaking series? For now, they’ll co-exist as nominees. Besides The Crown, the only other shows on the ballot in this category that ever received an Outstanding Drama recognition are Grey’s Anatomy and Law & Order, and I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for either to return to the race. The Morning Show has been a presence in other Emmy categories in its first two seasons, which in a year like this makes it a veteran guarantee, and its Apple TV+ bedfellow Slow Horses finally seems to be getting its due after season three. I would be less bullish on The Gilded Age’s Emmy chances if it weren’t HBO’s only real horse in this race; the last time HBO was shut out of Best Drama was 2008, and they’ve been campaigning for this show hard.

Things start to get squishy in the sixth to eighth slots. Prime Video has been trying to juggle campaigns for both Fallout and Mr. & Mrs. Smith, and given their relatively meager success in Drama over the years, it’s hard for me to back two separate shows. Netflix tends to be better at that kind of thing, which is why it stands a good chance of eking out a nod for the intermittently compelling (if awfully chintzy-looking) 3 Body Problem. Disney+ is lurking around the periphery, trying to shake off the air of disappointment around all of its franchises. A surprise Emmy nomination for either Marvel’s Loki or Star Wars’ Ahsoka would be great for morale, but neither has the air of success around it necessary to pull votes. At least Showtime’s The Curse — which is deliberately difficult and ended its first(?) season frustratingly — feels like a show that achieved exactly what it wanted to.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Tokyo Vice

I’m Probably Underestimating: Fallout

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: X-Men ’97

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Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Hiroyuki Sanada, Sh�gun
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Cosmo Jarvis, Sh�gun
Dominic West, The Crown
Colin Farrell, Sugar
Donald Glover, Mr. & Mrs. Smith

The Sh�gun fellas and Gary Oldman all feel like very safe bets, and unless the bottom fully falls out on The Crown, I expect Dominic West to follow in Josh O’Connor’s footsteps with a nomination for playing Prince Charles. Mr. & Mrs. Smith is maybe the show with the highest variance in terms of possibility; I could see it getting nominated across the board or barely anywhere, but for now, I’m sticking with 11-time Emmy nominee Donald Glover.

Then there’s that last slot. Walton Goggins has been nominated before and is the skeleton-nosed face of Fallout. Ben Mendelsohn, an Emmy winner, has many of the awards-bait signifiers on his side (playing a real person, during World War II times, opposite the Nazis). Morgan Spector could ride in on a Gilded wave. Sugar might have caught its share of snickers when its big plot twist was revealed, but Colin Farrell is a huge movie star who carried that show, and that should be enough to give him the edge.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Walton Goggins, Fallout

I’m Probably Underestimating: Ben Mendelsohn, The New Look

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Adrien Brody, Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty

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Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Emma Stone, The Curse
Anna Sawai, Sh�gun
Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
Imelda Staunton, The Crown
Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age
Carrie Preston, Elsbeth

Both Stone and Sawai were stunning on their respective shows. Stone’s cause is bolstered by her star power (she just won her second Oscar, after all), while Sawai has the year’s buzziest drama behind hers. Emmy voters have already shown that they like both stars of The Morning Show; Jennifer Aniston was nominated in 2020, Reese Witherspoon in 2022. Aniston’s character spent the third season in a power romance with Jon Hamm, while Witherspoon’s character covered up her brother’s involvement in January 6. Tough to tell who Emmy voters might go for, and honestly it might just be both. Traditionally, whoever is playing the Queen on The Crown gets nominated, though that didn’t happen for Imelda Staunton last year. Meanwhile, Carrie Preston is already an Emmy winner for playing Elsbeth Tascioni on The Good Wife. Now her spinoff is a legit hit for a legacy cable network. Surely plenty of voters will find something to celebrate in this.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Maya Erskine, Mr. & Mrs. Smith

I’m Probably Underestimating: Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Shanola Hampton, Found

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Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Jon Hamm, The Morning Show
Tadanobu Asano, Sh�gun
Jonathan Pryce, The Crown
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses
Takehiro Hira, Sh�gun
Mark Duplass, The Morning Show

Remember a few years ago when The Handmaid’s Tale picked up a bushel of acting nominations in all categories, and all the usual Emmy observers were like, “People still watch that show?!� Expect a similar level of incredulity when The Morning Show gets a minimum of five acting nominations. If things break the right way, three of them could come in this category, where 2020 winner Billy Crudup might be squaring off with co-star Jon Hamm for the win. I’m less certain about the Duplass nomination, though he’s been here before, and my guess is that voters probably sympathize with his beleaguered producer dealing with the unreasonable demands of the divas around him.

Snub That’s Going to Make People His Accent Coach Mad: Nathan Lane, The Gilded Age

I’m Probably Underestimating: Benny Safdie, The Curse

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Wendell Pierce, Elsbeth

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Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Kristin Scott Thomas, Slow Horses
Greta Lee, The Morning Show
Lesley Manville, The Crown
Fumi Nikaido, Sh�gun
Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age
Holland Taylor, The Morning Show

Debicki was nominated last year amid a sea of White Lotus cast members. None of them will be getting in the way this year. Instead, we’ll see multiple contenders from The Morning Show, including the formidable Greta Lee (who had her best season yet), as well as Nicole Beharie and Holland Taylor, whose tense face-off provided the show with a rare positive viral moment. Elsewhere, Kristin Scott Thomas plays her self-interested MI5 director with a deliciously cool confidence on Slow Horses, even if I’d most love to see her joined by Saskia Reeves, whose disillusioned and suspicious Slough House spy was at the center of some of the most emotionally affecting scenes of the season. Christine Baranski is doing the snooty socialite thing perfectly, though she does face internal competition from fellow Gilded Age supporting actresses Cynthia Nixon, Audra McDonald, and Donna Murphy.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Nicole Beharie, The Morning Show

I’m Probably Underestimating: Moeka Hoshi, Sh�gun

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Saskia Reeves, Slow Horses

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Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Nestor Carbonell, Sh�gun
Michael Emerson, Fallout
Jonathan Pryce, Slow Horses
Sam Waterston, Law & Order
Kyle McLachlan, Fallout
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Elsbeth

At long last, Lost’s Mr. Eyeliner, The Morning Show’s Yanko, the mayor of Gotham City himself is headed for his first-ever Emmy nomination. He’s the only one I’d put money on in this category, if only because almost everybody else faces fierce internal competition within their own shows. Fallout, Mr. & Mrs. Smith, and Elsbeth all have multiple submissions in this category. The other name to watch is Sam Waterston, who submitted for his swan-song episode of Law & Order, a show for which he was nominated three times.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: David Cronenberg, Star Trek: Discovery

I’m Probably Underestimating: John Turturro, Mr. & Mrs. Smith

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Lance Reddick, Bosch: Legacy

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Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series

Claire Foy, The Crown
Glenn Close, The New Look
Sarah Paulson, Mr. & Mrs. Smith
Jane Krakowski, Elsbeth
Marcia Gay Harden, The Morning Show
Linda Lavin, Elsbeth

Claire Foy has amassed three Emmy nominations and one win for playing young Queen Elizabeth on The Crown. It’s an easy call for nomination number four here, especially since no one else from The Crown submitted in Guest. Otherwise, voters tend to nominate their faves, so perennial honorees like Glenn Close and Sarah Paulson have a great chance. Marcia Gay Harden was nominated for her Morning Show role two years ago, so even though she was only in one scene this season, I’m expecting her to get nominated again.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Michaela Coel, Mr. & Mrs. Smith

I’m Probably Underestimating: Yûko Miyamoto, Sh�gun

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Rachael Ray, The Curse

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Outstanding Comedy Series

The Bear (FX on Hulu)
Hacks (Max)
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Reservation Dogs (FX on Hulu)
The Gentlemen (Netflix)
Palm Royale (Apple TV+)

This is a category with five locked-in nominees and three more hoping to end up at the top of a scramble. If Reservation Dogs doesn’t get a long-awaited nomination in its final season, the TV Academy will have a lot to answer for. Netflix has been campaigning heavily for The Gentlemen, and since a Netflix comedy series has been nominated in nine of the last ten years, I’d wager this one will get in as well, even if it doesn’t have the geezer appeal of recent Netflix noms like The Kominsky Method and Grace and Frankie.

The eighth slot is going to be a real scrum, with 2020 and 2022 nominee What We Do in the Shadows, Apple’s Palm Royale, Amazon’s I’m a Virgo, CBS’s Ghosts, and even Paramount+’s Frasier remake all equally likely to get the nod. When it’s this much of a toss-up, you start entertaining thoughts of left-field surprises that might be great — overdue recognition for the punks of We Are Lady Parts or pop princesses of Girls5Eva. Maybe HBO’s The Righteous Gemstones finally gets in. Maybe the voters go for an Aussie series like Colin from Accounts, or the A+ comedy re-pairing of Seth Rogen and Rose Byrne in Platonic. I mean, it’ll probably just be Palm Royale, which is fine, but give yourself a few days to entertain the possibilities.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: We Are Lady Parts (Peacock)

I’m Probably Underestimating: What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Platonic (Apple TV+)

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Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Kelsey Grammer, Frasier

The year Matt Damon got his first Oscar nomination for Good Will Hunting, he was up in Best Actor against Jack Nicholson, Robert Duvall, Peter Fonda, and Dustin Hoffman — a quartet of some of the most formidable actors of the previous generation. This is how I feel about Jeremy Allen White this year. While it’s not his first rodeo — he’s the defending champ in this category, after all — he’s very likely to be nominated against four comedy legends: Steve Martin, Martin Short, Larry David, and Kelsey Grammer. And he’s a stone-cold lock to beat all of them! The actors with the best chance to bust up this gerontocracy are folks like Theo James, who has the Netflix machine behind him; Jharrel Jerome, a former Emmy winner who’s I’m a Virgo’s best shot at a nomination; or Reservation Dogs’ D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, though the Emmys are very, very reluctant to nominate young people for acting. (Fred Savage, 13 when nominated for The Wonder Years in 1989, and Frankie Muniz, 15 when nominated for Malcolm in the Middle, are the only Comedy Actor nominees younger than the 22-year-old Woon-A-Tai.)

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, Reservation Dogs

I’m Probably Underestimating: Theo James, The Gentlemen

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Rhys Darby, Our Flag Means Death

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Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Jean Smart, Hacks
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Kristen Wiig, Palm Royale
Devery Jacobs, Reservation Dogs

So, yes, I just said that thing about the Emmys being reluctant to nominate young people, and that’s true, but FX has done a very good job of singling out Devery Jacobs as the mature, seasoned anchor of the Reservation Dogs cast, a member of the show’s writing staff, and a director. That could be enough to get her into what is an incredibly competitive Best Actress field. Quinta Brunson won this last year, and she’s still a rather distant third behind Jean Smart and Ayo Edebiri. Kristen Wiig, meanwhile, may be locked in a battle for the fifth nomination slot with her frequent co-star Maya Rudolph (Loot) and OMITB’s Selena Gomez, who’s fresh off a (shared) Cannes Best Actress prize .

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Renee Elise Goldsberry, Girls5Eva

I’m Probably Underestimating: Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Sarah Lancashire, Julia

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Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Oliver Platt, The Bear
Paul Rudd, Only Murders in the Building
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Matty Matheson, The Bear
Paul W. Downs, Hacks

How many Bears can we fit into one category? This is where we find out. I’m comfortable writing Ebon Moss-Bachrach and Oliver Platt’s names in permanent marker. Whether Lionel Boyce and Matty Matheson can follow suit will be one of the more interesting questions answered Wednesday. Only Murders in the Building has never been nominated in the supporting categories before, but they’ve also never had names as big as Paul Rudd and Meryl Streep before either. My big swing in this category is that I’m certain Paul W. Downs is getting nominated for Hacks. His character has been a shadow protagonist for two seasons now, and unless the voters turn on that show in a way I really don’t expect them to, Downs will be the beneficiary of that perspective shift.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live

I’m Probably Underestimating: Lionel Boyce, The Bear

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Joel Kim Booster, Loot

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Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Abby Elliott, The Bear
Liza Colon-Zayas, The Bear
Carol Burnett, Palm Royale

This category really needs the full complement of eight nominees to contain all that talent. If you asked me a couple months ago who the frontrunner was, I’d have said Streep; she’s the ultimate ringer to add to an already successful show and, unlike her stint on Big Little Lies, she was actually great on Only Murders. But the past few weeks of campaigning convinced me that Hannah Einbinder has this one in the bag. She’s made every single media appearance, done every roundtable, I’m sure she’s even kissed some babies.

The real intrigue comes in the other four slots. Sheryl Lee Ralph remains first among equals in the Abbott supporting cast, but whereas in years past this category has had room for her co-stars Janelle James and Lisa Ann Walter, that might not be the case now. Not with The Bear serving up Abby Elliott (whose Natalie got a lot more story in season two), Liza Colón-Zayas (overdue from not getting nominated last year), and even Molly Gordon. But any one of these will have to get past two of the most Emmy-decorated of all time: Allison Janney and the legend Carol Burnett, both of whom feature significantly on Palm Royale (at least once Burnett’s character emerges from her coma). In other words, this is a bad year to hope Paula Pell finally gets recognized for Girls5Eva.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Janelle James, Abbott Elementary

I’m Probably Underestimating: Allison Janney, Palm Royale

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Susie Essman, Curb Your Enthusiasm

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Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Jon Bernthal, The Bear
Bob Odenkirk, The Bear
John Mulaney, The Bear
Ryan Gosling, Saturday Night Live
Pete Davidson, Saturday Night Live
Will Poulter, The Bear

It’s likely The Bear and Saturday Night Live take up this entire category, especially with Reservation Dogs’ Ethan Hawke not submitting for the Guest Actor ballot. SNL is always a tricky terrain to scout; Gosling is an easy call, as he’s coming off of his great Barbie year, always delivers on SNL, and was part of the season’s biggest viral sketch, where he played an uncanny resemblance to Beavis. Virality could also benefit the likes of Timothée Chalamet (as Troye Sivan) or Nate Bargatze (George Washington). But Davidson has the advantage of being an SNL alum returning to the show. Voters really seem to love that.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Wes Studi, Reservation Dogs

I’m Probably Underestimating: Tony Goldwyn, Hacks

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Andy Samberg, John Mulaney Presents: Everybody’s in L.A.

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Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Jamie Lee Curtis, The Bear
Olivia Colman, The Bear
J. Smith-Cameron, Hacks
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Maya Rudolph, Saturday Night Live
Ayo Edebiri, Saturday Night Live

It seems perhaps foolish to leave off Sarah Paulson for The Bear considering she’s been nominated eight times and won once. Ditto Emma Stone, who could very easily see a nomination for hosting SNL. As with Guest Actor, the SNL hosts remain the trickiest element. Wiig and Rudolph are always memorable; Sydney Sweeney isn’t too far removed from that year she was nominated for Euphoria and The White Lotus at the same time; Ayo Edebiri seems like a perfect multiple-nominee candidate for this and The Bear. The one non-Bear, non-SNL actress who seems to be secure in this category is J. Smith-Cameron, who was nominated last year for Succession and replaced Linda Purl in the high-profile role of Deborah’s sister on Hacks.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Lily Gladstone, Reservation Dogs

I’m Probably Underestimating: Sydney Sweeney, Saturday Night Live

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Peri Gilpin, Frasier

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Outstanding Limited Series

Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Fargo (FX)
True Detective: Night Country (HBO)
Ripley (Netflix)
Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+)

This year, Limited Series is a classic musical-chairs category, where there is one fewer open spot than there are major contenders. Showtime’s part-horny, part-hokey 20th century queer history Fellow Travelers has been a major presence on the campaign trail, it’s just a matter of determining which of the predicted five nominees it could bump out. Night Country was not universally well-received, but certainly HBO still has enough mojo, even in the Zaslav era, to pull off a nomination — for the corpsicle alone! Baby Reindeer and Fargo aren’t going anywhere, and while I’m personally less bullish on Ripley than most, I don’t have a say in the matter. There are cases to be made for shows like Apple’s Masters of the Air, which looks incredibly polished and handsome in its World War II environs, and Lawmen: Bass Reeves for the fact that Paramount has been championing it for what feels like years. Hulu’s Under the Bridge has gotten good reviews and premiered late enough in the season that it might be fresher on voters’ minds. But my guess is this will be a tossup between Apple’s 1960s-set tribute to women in STEM, Lessons in Chemistry, or Fellow Travelers.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Under the Bridge (Hulu)

I’m Probably Underestimating: Fellow Travelers (Showtime)

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Full Circle (Max)

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Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie

Andrew Scott, Ripley
Tony Shalhoub, Mr. Monk’s Last Case
Jon Hamm, Fargo
Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer
Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers

It may be July, but Pride vibes linger in this category. Queer performers Andrew Scott, Matt Bomer, and Richard Gadd all seem positioned to grab a nomination, while Tom Hollander’s boozy, bitchy performance of Truman Capote sits on the precipice as well. Fargo is usually a reliable source for acting nominations, and the TV Academy has already established their love for Jon Hamm, so mark him in. Others seem less sure about Tony Shalhoub’s return to the role of Adrian Monk one last time. Yes, television has changed a lot since 2010, the last time Shalhoub was nominated for Monk the series, but prior to that, he’d been nominated eight times and won three of them (in addition to his four noms and one win for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel).

Can we also take a moment to discuss the deeply bizarre non-strategy Netflix employed for the cast of Fall of the House of Usher? The Emmys have historically ignored Mike Flanagan’s horror-inflected miniseries (The Haunting of Hill House and Bly Manor; Midnight Mass), but even still, it’s odd to see series lead Bruce Greenwood in this category alongside supporting players Mark Hamill and Carl Lumbly. I came into Emmy season ready to ride for Hamill’s performance as a remorseless family fixer, but … in supporting, where he belongs. Not this. Not this way.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass Reeves

I’m Probably Underestimating: Tom Hollander, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Mark Hamill, Fall of the House of Usher 

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Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie

Jodie Foster, True Detective: Night Country
Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry
Juno Temple, Fargo
Sofia Vergara, Griselda
Naomi Watts, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans

On paper, it seems ludicrous that Kate Winslet might get left off of the Best Actress list for The Regime. But that show bombed hard, and there are enough strong contenders in the mix that Winslet could very well get left out in the cold. In her place, the locks are two other Oscar winners: Jodie Foster and Brie Larson. Juno Temple’s recent nominations for Ted Lasso will likely work in her favor when it comes to scoring a nod for Fargo. Even the detractors of the Capote Feud seem to agree that Naomi Watts delivers a stunning performance. And then there’s Netflix, which isn’t accustomed to being on the outs of any category, so expect one of their contenders to show up, either Uzo Aduba, for the opioid epidemic Sackler-Family condemnation Painkiller, or Sofia Vergara playing a drug queenpin in Griselda. Betting against Aduba at the Emmys is incredibly foolish; she’s a five-time nominee for her work on three different shows (Orange Is the New Black, Mrs. America, and In Treatment). But Painkiller was so under the radar, while Griselda was one of Netflix’s hits of the year. That calculus seems to work out in Vergara’s favor.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Emma Corrin, A Murder at the End of the World

I’m Probably Underestimating: Uzo Aduba, Painkiller

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Annie Murphy, Black Mirror

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Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie

Robert Downey Jr., The Sympathizer
Lewis Pullman, Lessons in Chemistry
John Hawkes, True Detective: Night Country
Jonathan Bailey, Fellow Travelers
Joe Keery, Fargo
Treat Williams, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans
Hugh Grant, The Regime

This is the rare category with more open spots than buzzy contenders to fill it. Robert Downey Jr. is the odds-on favorite to follow up his Oscar win with an Emmy for playing multiple roles (some would argue poorly) on The Sympathizer. Hawkes was a solid veteran presence in the True D cast, while Jonathan Bailey really bolstered his profile on the Fellow Travelers press tour this year. Lewis Pullman and Joe Keery are holding it down for the younger actors, while it seems likely that Treat Williams will get a posthumous nod for his performance as Bill Paley on Feud.

And then … who takes that seventh slot? Most people were really impressed by William Friedkin’s production of The Caine Mutiny Court Martial, a film that Jason Clarke anchored with moral intensity (he’s clearly the lead but was submitted in Supporting to steer clear of Kiefer Sutherland’s showier work). It’s often wise in these toss-up situations to go with the frontrunner show, which could be good news for Tom Goodman-Hill as the mentor-turned-predator in Baby Reindeer. And while I just got finished talking about what a disappointment The Regime was, Hugh Grant has been nominated twice in the last five years, one of which was for another HBO show that a lot of people hated (sorry, The Undoing, I still liked you mostly). It’s probably smart to go with the actor you know voters like.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Jason Clarke, The Caine Mutiny Court Martial

I’m Probably Underestimating: Tom Goodman-Hill, Baby Reindeer

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Josh Hartnett, Black Mirror; Harris Dickinson, A Murder at the End of the World

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Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie

Jessica Gunning, Baby Reindeer
Kali Reis, True Detective: Night Country
Lily Gladstone, Under the Bridge
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Fargo
Diane Lane, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans
Nava Mau, Baby Reindeer
Fiona Shaw, True Detective: Night Country

After nearly landing a Best Actress Oscar earlier this year, I do expect Lily Gladstone’s newly raised profile will snag her a nomination. This category is going to come down to Jessica Gunning and Kali Reis anyway; we can tackle that battle after the nominations. For now, I’d say both Baby Reindeer and True Detective are strong enough contenders to pull in second nominees, which is good news for Nava Mau and Fiona Shaw. If I’m overestimating anyone’s chances, it might be Diane Lane, since she’ll have internal competition from the other Swans like Chloe Sevigny and Calista Flockhart. But I think Lane’s role as the ringleader against Capote puts her at an advantage.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Dakota Fanning, Ripley

I’m Probably Underestimating: Aja Naomi King, Lessons in Chemistry

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Mary McDonnell, Fall of the House of Usher

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Outstanding Reality Competition Program

RuPaul’s Drag Race
The Amazing Race
Survivor
The Voice
Top Chef

I have been burned too many times betting on Emmy voters to try something new in the reality categories. I think The Traitors will end up as a nominee … it just might not be this year. If this is me being too pessimistic, I’m happy to be wrong, but since four of the five above (not including Survivor) have been nominated together every year they’ve been eligible, last year’s nominees will probably be this year’s nominees, too.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: The Traitors

I’m Probably Underestimating: The Golden Bachelor

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Squid Game: The Challenge

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Outstanding Reality Host

RuPaul, RuPaul’s Drag Race
Alan Cumming, The Traitors
Jeff Probst, Survivor
Karamo Brown, Antoni Porowski, Tan France, Bobby Berk, and Jonathan Van Ness, Queer Eye
Nicole Byer, The Big Nailed It! Baking Challenge

Here’s where I think The Traitors definitely breaks through. Even when the show can be frustrating, Alan Cumming’s grandly dramatic work shines through. Other hosts keep the trains running; Cumming knows he’s there to put on a show. RuPaul and Jeff Probst are solid as nominees, and while I would venture that the new era of Queer Eye has officially fizzled out, I’m not sure the habit-prone Emmy voters will agree. The investor panel from Shark Tank is always a threat to be nominated, as is Nicole Byer, whose show came back with a new title and slightly different format but still has the same personable, quickly funny Byer at the helm. Meanwhile, Top Chef has been a nominee here for four straight years, but this is their first with Kristen Kish as the new host. That change might be enough for voters to stray, at least for now.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Kristen Kish, Top Chef

Host I’m Probably Underestimating: Mark Cuban, Lori Greiner, Kevin O’Leary, Barbara Corcoran, Robert Herjavec, Daymond John, Shark Tank

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: Gordon Ramsay, Next Level Chef

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Outstanding Talk Series

The Daily Show
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
John Mulaney Presents: Everybody’s in L.A.
Late Night with Seth Meyers
Jimmy Kimmel Live

Mulaney’s show could ultimately prove to be too much of an odd bird for Emmy voters, but … what else gets in then? Fallon? Hot Ones? Bill Maher?! (Honestly, there are at least two shows in the above five that I’d rather see snubbed in favor of Hot Ones.) I think this category is pretty locked down, but in terms of deep long shots, RuPaul’s Drag Race: The Pit Stop’s eligibility is a delight. Bianca Del Rio and Trixie Mattell hosted (separately) this season, and if this is how we get one or both of them a legit late night gig, so be it.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Hot Ones

I’m Probably Underestimating: Real Time With Bill Maher (Kidding! The real answer is probably Hot Ones.)

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: RuPaul’s Drag Race: The Pit Stop

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Outstanding Scripted Variety Series

Last Week Tonight With John Oliver

According to the weird Emmy bylaws, so few shows even qualified for this category that voters will have to deliver a simple yes/no to all five contenders — Last Week Tonight, After Midnight, Saturday Night Live, Painting With John, and Netflix’s The Magic Prank Show With Justin Willman — and whichever shows get 90 percent yes answers will be a nominee. And while it would look very strange if Saturday Night Live got a whole bunch of acting nominations without showing up in this category, (1) 90 percent is an incredibly high bar to clear, and (2) it’s just funnier to imagine a category with only one nominee.

Snub That’s Going to Make People Mad: Painting With John

I’m Probably Underestimating: Saturday Night Live

Should Be Here But Definitely Won’t: After Midnight

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