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Can you even remember what was happening at the beginning of the 2023–24 TV season? The strikes were still active, of course. Jamie Lee Curtis was having a bipolar episode in a cramped kitchen in the Chicago suburbs. FX’s upcoming adaptation of the novel ShÅgun was assumed to have a definitive endpoint. Fifteen long months ago, we kicked off a TV season that ends on Sunday night at the Peacock Theater (wait, seriously?) in Los Angeles. The Emmy voters have cast their ballots. All that remains is for the winners to make their speeches.
No, that’s a lie. Because first we make our predictions as to who will be the ones making those speeches. After spending Emmy season digging into everything from Reservation Dogs’s long-overdue Emmy recognition to The Bear facing backlash to The Morning Show’s insane number of acting nominations, we’re ready to put all that raw data to good use.
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Outstanding Drama Series
The Crown (Netflix)
Fallout (Prime Video)
The Gilded Age (HBO)
The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
ShÅgun (FX)
Slow Horses (Apple TV+)
3 Body Problem (Netflix)
Last weekend’s record-breaking 14-win tally by ShÅgun at the Creative Arts Emmys could not be a better indication that hand-wringing about whether the FX series could get clipped at the finish line is not necessary. There is no shortage of enthusiasm for this show across the Academy’s various branches. The only snag worth considering is whether one of the other shows will be a bigger favorite with the acting branch. February’s SAG Awards are of no help, since the industry was still awarding Succession back then. If there’s any show the actors could rally behind, it would have to be The Morning Show with its ten acting nominations. But are we ready to exist in a world where The Morning Show bests ShÅgun in Outstanding Drama Series? Could we endure that kind of injustice?
Will Win: ShÅgun
Should Win: ShÅgun
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Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Idris Elba, Hijack
Donald Glover, Mr. & Mrs. Smith
Walton Goggins, Fallout
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Hiroyuki Sanada, ShÅgun
Dominic West, The Crown
For a few of these nominees, the nomination was the victory. Good for Walton Goggins for getting the members of any kind of academy to vote in significant numbers for a noseless, irradiated cowboy called “The Ghoul.†Good for Idris Elba for flexing his star power by getting nominated for a TV show called [checks notes] Hijack. Good for Dominic West for nabbing his first Emmy nomination after having been consistently passed over for The Wire and The Affair.
But this category will come down to Gary Oldman and Hiroyuki Sanada. Both are veteran actors in their own right: Oldman amassed critically acclaimed performances through the ’80s and ’90s before winning an Oscar for playing Winston Churchill under a bunch of prosthetic jowl-work. He’s an exquisite slob on Slow Horses, a sharp intelligence agent cosplaying as a wet cigarette of a man. Meanwhile, Sanada worked for decades in Japanese and Hong Kong cinema before crossing over to the U.S. in the aughts. ShÅgun very much feels like the role his career has been leading up to, a performance that requires deep reserves of gravitas, stoicism, and a little humor. While I could see Oldman winning, he’s already got his big award; this feels like the pinnacle moment for Sanada, and I think voters sense that too.
Will win: Hiroyuki Sanada
Should win: Hiroyuki Sanada
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Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Jennifer Aniston, The Morning ShowÂ
Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age
Maya Erskine, Mr. & Mrs. Smith
Anna Sawai, ShÅgun
Imelda Staunton, The Crown
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show
If Imelda Staunton doesn’t win (and momentum doesn’t appear to be on her side), she’ll go down as The Crown’s only Queen Elizabeth who didn’t take home an Emmy. If just one of The Morning Show’s leading ladies were nominated, I’d consider that more of a threat; those ten acting nominations indicate there are a lot of TMS fans among voters. But with Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon cannibalizing each other’s vote totals, that can only help the woman who was already the favorite: ShÅgun’s Anna Sawai. One of the elements that made the series succeed beyond its literary roots was the way in which Sawai’s Lady Mariko became central to the series, with the character’s fate marking the season’s most impactful moment. Sawai’s performance is undeniable in this category, and it will be embarrassing if she doesn’t win.
Will win: Anna Sawai
Should win: Anna Sawai
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Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Tadanobu Asano, ShÅgun
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Mark Duplass, The Morning Show
Jon Hamm, The Morning Show
Takehiro Hira, ShÅgun
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses
Jonathan Pryce, The Crown
Jack Lowden’s consolation prize is his brand-new happy marriage to Saoirse Ronan. Jonathan Pryce’s consolation prize is not having to return to 3 Body Problem. This category is going to come down to the men of ShÅgun versus the men of The Morning Show.
So why do I think Tadanobu Asano and Takehiro Hira will end up eating into each other’s vote totals, while I don’t think the same will happen to the Morning Show trio? For one thing, I think a certain amount of Jon Hamm voters will take the opportunity to vote for his Fargo performance in Lead Actor in a Limited Series instead (if for no better reason than he’s playing a more dynamic character there). For another, I don’t think Mark Duplass is in the same league as his fellow nominated co-stars. All of which adds up to Morning Show voters feeling free to funnel all their support to Billy Crudup, which is ultimately fine, because his performance on TMS season three is easily the best work he’s done on the show (and he was already its acting MVP). Crudup won this award in 2020, and he’s primed to do so again.
Will win: Billy Crudup
Should win: Billy Crudup
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Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age
Nicole Beharie, The Morning Show
Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Greta Lee, The Morning Show
Lesley Manville, The Crown
Karen Pittman, The Morning Show
Holland Taylor, The Morning Show
Christine Baranski is an icon and an Emmy winner, but I think she sits on the sidelines for this battle between The Crown and The Morning Show. Elizabeth Debicki won a Critics Choice and a Golden Globe for her performance as Diana, while Lesley Manville spent the start of the festival season playing an enigmatic woman of the South American jungle in Luca Guadagnino’s Queer. Sure, the latter happened after the Emmy voting window closed; I just needed to mention it. Yes, there are still good reasons to support either Debicki or Manville for the win, if for no other reason than this is an opportunity for voters to give The Crown a final send-off victory.
As for the quartet of The Morning Show nominees, the question is whether voters will find a reason to single out one over the others. Nicole Beharie and Holland Taylor were both part of the show’s big viral moment, in which their characters faced off in a tense on-air showdown about race and accountability. Beharie in particular looks like a superstar in that clip. That might be enough to pull the votes to her side.
But to me, Greta Lee is the performance to watch here. Her Stella Bak spends the season in the crosshairs, career momentum carrying her toward a C-suite job while her past with a shady tech billionaire ties her up in knots. Lee performs the hell out of the character, and as I mentioned with Andrew Scott, her presence on the Oscar campaign trail for Past Lives last year gives her the air of emerging stardom. This category will be a true toss-up until the moment the winner’s name is read.
Will win: Elizabeth Debicki
Should win: Greta Lee
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Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
The Crown, “Sleep, Dearie Sleep,†Stephen Daldry
The Morning Show, “The Overview Effect,†Mimi Leder
Mr. & Mrs. Smith, “First Date,†Hiro Murai
ShÅgun, “Crimson Sky,†Frederick E.O. Toye
Slow Horses, “Strange Games,†Saul Metzstein
Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty, “Beat L.A.,†Salli Richardson-Whitfield
After watching ShÅgun run laps around the rest of the year’s TV at the Creative Arts Emmys, how is there even a discussion to be had about whether it will win Directing, the king of the tech categories? There isn’t, and I won’t waste your time or mine pretending there is.
Will win: ShÅgun, “Crimson Skyâ€
Should win: ShÅgun, “Crimson Skyâ€
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Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
The Crown, “Ritz,†Peter Morgan and Meriel Sheibani-Clare
Fallout, “The End,†Geneva Robertson-Dworet and Graham Wagner
Mr. & Mrs. Smith, “First Date,†Francesca Sloane and Donald Glover
ShÅgun, “Anjin,†Rachel Kondo and Justin Marks
ShÅgun, “Crimson Sky,†Rachel Kondo and Caillin Puente
Slow Horses, “Negotiating with Tigers,†Will Smith
Two ShÅgun nominations mean the possibility of splitting the vote, but to what end? Are Emmy voters going to give Fallout a writing award? Is the enthusiasm for Mr. & Mrs. Smith strong enough to win this high up on the ballot? Slow Horses would make for a deserving victor, but I still think that show’s best chance lies with Oldman. Okay … okay. Yes. The Emmys giving a going-away present to Peter Morgan (and co-writer Meriel Sheibani-Clare) for the final season of the well-past-its-prime The Crown does sound like exactly the kind of thing the Emmys would do.
Stay in line, ShÅgun voters. Stay in line.
Will win: ShÅgun, “Crimson Skyâ€
Should win: Slow Horses, “Negotiating with Tigersâ€
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Outstanding Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
The Bear (FX on Hulu)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Hacks (Max)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Palm Royale (Apple TV+)
Reservation Dogs (FX on Hulu)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
We’ve been saying all year that The Bear is walking to an Emmy win in this category, and now that we’re on the eve of that happening, we have to ask ourselves if we were overconfident. Although the third season of The Bear dropped in full this summer, this award would go to the show’s second season. That’s a good thing, since season two did a much better job sustaining clock-ticking momentum en route to the restaurant’s opening while making time for grace notes like Marcus’s trip to Copenhagen and Richie staging for chef Olivia Colman.
But it’s not like Emmy voters who watched the third season of The Bear can pretend they didn’t. If they were disappointed by the show’s pacing or weren’t down with some of the narrative chances it took, or if they don’t think it’s really a comedy, they may well have taken those concerns into consideration when voting. The question is, Has a consensus formed around a Bear alternative? When nominations were announced, the collective whoop you heard was from TV critics everywhere celebrating Reservation Dogs’s long-deserved Outstanding Comedy Series nom. Unfortunately, that’s probably as far as that show gets.
Abbott Elementary is well liked, as is Hacks, though the latter is yet another comedy that often leans toward drama. Only Murders had what was, in my opinion, a great third season that took itself out of some of the ruts it had dug in season two. Curb Your Enthusiasm is on its farewell nomination. Ultimately, I think those votes spread themselves too thin, and if the Guest Acting wins for Jamie Lee Curtis and Jon Bernthal last weekend are any indication, The Bear takes the repeat win we all figured it would.
Will win: The Bear
Should win: Reservation Dogs
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Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Matt Berry, What We Do in the Shadows
D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, Reservation Dogs
A farewell Emmy win for Larry David would be an incredibly nice gesture from the television Academy voters, not to mention well deserved and long overdue. Were this the Oscars, we’d have gone through three months of wall-to-wall career retrospectives and reminders that David has been nominated 18 times for Curb but never won. You’re telling me it wouldn’t make at least a handful of voters pause over their ballots to wonder why they’re voting for Jeremy Allen White — who’s got youth, good looks, an underwear ad campaign, and an Emmy from last year — when they could be giving Larry David and Curb a “thanks for all the good work†Emmy on their last possible chance to do so?
Alas, the more likely upset possibilities are first-time nominee Matt Berry (he’s the one about whom most people say “oh, he won’t win, but I think he’s my favoriteâ€) or one of the Only Murders boys (though the fact that I can’t seem to decide which one is the more awardable of the two is why neither will win). D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai got Rez Dogs’s lone acting nomination and the category’s designated long shot; at the very least, he’d need a Bear backlash (we’re talking a shutout) to find himself in contention.
Will win: Jeremy Allen White
Should win: Larry David
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Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Maya Rudolph, Loot
Jean Smart, Hacks
Kristen Wiig, Palm Royale
Even before nominations were announced, this was my choice for most competitive and exciting of all the acting races. And all due respect to last year’s winner, Quinta Brunson; first-time nominee Selena Gomez; and old SNL besties Maya Rudolph and Kristen Wiig, but this race comes down to Jean Smart versus Ayo Edebiri. Sydney, Edebiri’s character on The Bear, became a more confident and integral part of Carmy’s kitchen in season two and even got to open up more in scenes with her father (Robert Townsend). Edebiri played all these scenes with her signature wit and clear-eyed optimism. She’s wonderful.
Then again, Jean Smart’s performance as Debra Vance is, to use a metaphor inspired by that show’s Vegas setting, a slot machine that never stops paying out. Season three offered her more opportunities to be big and brassy while in possession of a heart that breaks and pride that bruises. At the beginning of this Emmys season, I was predicting a Bear sweep, but I think Smart takes her third Hacks Emmy.
Will win: Jean Smart
Should win: Ayo Edebiri
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Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Lionel Boyce, The BearÂ
Paul W. Downs, Hacks
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Paul Rudd, Only Murders in the Building
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night LiveÂ
I’d be more willing to entertain the idea of an upset in this category if Ebon Moss-Bachrach didn’t put the best episode of The Bear season two upon his shoulders and carry it. “Forks†is enough to justify back-to-back Emmys for Moss-Bachrach, even against relatively strong competition: Paul Rudd is the classic single-season ringer, brought in to goose Only Murders’s star power — and he succeeds incredibly well. Tyler James Williams is putting in work to keep the Gregory-Janine storyline out of the realm of Jim-and-Pam narrative quicksand. Lionel Boyce gets a spotlight episode of his own on The Bear’s second season, even if his is more lowkey (usually a compliment, but when it comes to awards voters, it’s a hindrance). And at some point, Bowen Yang is going to get an award for how much he’s queered up SNL (he did the Troye Sivan music-video dance for you people!). Still, this is Cousin’s Emmy, and I expect a lot of voters will make like they’re all alone in their car belting to Taylor Swift and just say “yes.â€
Will win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach
Should win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach
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Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Carol Burnett, Palm Royale
Liza Colon-Zayas, The Bear
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building
Frankly, I expected The Bear to be a much bigger presence in this category; where exactly is Abby Elliott’s nomination for Natalie’s breakthrough season?? But fine, there were a lot of talented supporting actresses this year and not enough nomination slots to accommodate them. Liza Colón-Zayas was good enough to deserve an Emmy for her work last season on The Bear, but she’s even better in an episode she’ll (hopefully) be nominated for next year.
Meanwhile, Sheryl Lee Ralph and Janelle James are still putting in award-worthy work on Abbott, though the buzz on that show has been oddly quiet this Emmy season, as has the drumbeat for a late-career Emmy for Carol Burnett. I suppose it’s hard to justify a career-spanning win for someone who’s already a seven-time Emmy winner. Meryl Streep has also won Emmys, but she is also Meryl Streep, and when Only Murders wrapped up its third season, I’d have called Streep a near-lock for the win given her reputation and how funny she was on the show (a welcome reminder that Streep can indeed be good on TV after her abysmal run on Big Little Lies).
But then came the new Hacks season, the promotion of which seemed to lean quite heavily on Hannah Einbinder (if she does win, it will be at least partially thanks to the sweat equity she put into the campaign trail). Despite the supporting distinction, Einbinder’s Ava is Hacks’s co-lead, which amounts to a huge advantage for her. A lead story arc is always going to feel fuller and more impressive when stacked up against a bunch of supporting characters (one of whom was literally in a coma for half her season).
Will win: Hannah Einbinder
Should win: Meryl Streep
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Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary, “Party,†Randall Einhorn
The Bear, “Fishes,†Christopher Storer
The Bear, “Honeydew,†Ramy Youssef
The Gentlemen, “Refined Aggression,†Guy Ritchie
Hacks, “Bulletproof,†Lucia Aniello
The Ms. Pat Show, “I’m the Pappy,†Mary Lou Belli
Christopher Storer won this award last year for The Bear’s unbearably tense “Review†episode (the one with the untenable onslaught of Doordash orders), and he’s back once again with the most stressful episode of The Bear’s second season, the holiday-flashback nightmare that was “Fishes.†There hasn’t been a repeat winning comedy director since Joey Soloway for Transparent in 2016, though, so it’s worth looking at the competition.
With The Gentlemen and The Ms. Pat Show solidly in the happy-to-be-nominated column, the non-Bear options come down to Abbott Elementary, which got its first Directing nomination in three seasons for the “Party†episode, and Hacks’s Lucia Aniello, who won this award three years ago for the show’s pilot episode. Storer’s biggest competition may well come from his own show, as Ramy Youssef directed a quiet marvel of an episode, the Copenhagen-set “Honeydew.†It makes for a perfect contrast, with the Berzatto family chaos of “Fishes†set against Marcus quietly learning a new discipline from guest star Will Poulter’s formidable arms.
Will win: “Fishesâ€
Should win: “Honeydewâ€
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Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary, “Career Day,†Quinta Brunson
The Bear, “Fishes,†Christopher Storer and Joanna Calo
Girls5eva, “Orlando,†Meredith Scardino and Sam Means
Hacks, “Bulletproof,†Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky
The Other Two, “Brooke Hosts a Night of Undeniable Good,†Chris Kelly and Sarah Schneider
What We Do in the Shadows, “Pride Parade,†Jake Bender and Zach Dunn
If The Bear is the heavy favorite to win Directing, this is probably the category to look for a counterprogramming award. We don’t live in a world that’s good enough to let Girls5Eva or The Other Two win a major Emmy award, even though “Brooke Hosts a Night of Undeniable Good†is a masterwork of madcap lunacy and direct hits on the entertainment industry’s shamelessness.
The kneejerk choice for a non-Bear insurgent would be Hacks, since it’s generally seen as running in second place this year and since “Bulletproof,†the season-three finale, had social media abuzz over the latest rift in the Deborah-Ava friendtorship (friendship + mentorship; let’s make that word happen). But this is the sixth writing nomination for What We Do in the Shadows in the last five years, and it’s the only time it hasn’t been nominated against itself. If The Bear and Hacks end up splitting the vote, there’s a chance Shadows could pull off the shocking upset.
Will win: What We Do in the Shadows, “Pride Paradeâ€
Should win: The Other Two, “Brooke Hosts a Night of Undeniable Goodâ€
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Outstanding Limited Series
Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Fargo (FX)
Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+)
Ripley (Netflix)
True Detective: Night Country (HBO)
In what was undoubtedly a down year for Limited Series (it didn’t help when ShÅgun bolted to Drama after announcing plans for a second season), it’s hard to get behind many of these nominees. True Detective: Night Country has the star power of Jodie Foster and the appeal of Arctic horror, but by the end of its run, the show had frustrated as many viewers as it had impressed. Lessons in Chemistry was handsomely assembled but never sprang to life. Ripley was even more handsome but might’ve been more frustrating than Night Country with its incredibly deliberate (slow) pacing. Fargo was Fargo, albeit a good version of Fargo, which isn’t always guaranteed. Ultimately, despite the lawsuits, Baby Reindeer was the show that made people feel like they discovered something, and that will probably carry it to a win.
Will win: Baby Reindeer
Should win: Baby Reindeer
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Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers
Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer
Jon Hamm, Fargo
Tom Hollander, Feud: Capote vs. The Swans
Andrew Scott, Ripley
This is a fascinating category. Normally you’d place all your chips on the lead actor from the Outstanding Limited Series front-runner, but since Richard Gadd is nominated as writer and producer of Baby Reindeer, voters might see opportunities to reward him elsewhere. That opens the door for the rest of the field. With the exception of Jon Hamm’s Fargo character, these are all performances of queer men. Not all of them are happy or fulfilled or non-murderous queer men, but they are rich and compelling characters nonetheless.
If anyone is going to challenge Gadd, I’d bet on either Hamm (an Emmy winner who’s nominated for multiple shows this year) or Andrew Scott (his recent stint on the Oscar campaign trail for All of Us Strangers has upped his profile considerably). A win for Scott and Ripley would not only be a well-deserved recognition of Scott’s frighteningly controlled performance as Tom Ripley, but it would also be a kindness, since Baby Reindeer essentially usurped Ripley’s spot as Netflix’s limited-series show horse. That said, I’m gonna bet that of Hamm’s dual nominations for Fargo and The Morning Show, he’s more likely to pull off the upset here, if only because he won’t have any internal competition from co-stars and because Hamm just makes more sense as a leading man.
Will win: Jon Hamm
Should win: Andrew Scott
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Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Jodie Foster, True Detective: Night Country
Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry
Juno Temple, Fargo
Sofia Vergara, Griselda
Naomi Watts, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans
This is not at all meant as disrespect toward actresses like Brie Larson (an Oscar winner!), Naomi Watts (dying with dignity onscreen!), Juno Temple (continuing to ride a career hot streak after Ted Lasso), or Sofia Vergara (In: queenpins; Out: girlbosses; So Five Minutes Ago: She-EOs). But when Jodie Foster descends from the Hollywood mountaintop to star in a TV show, playing a deeply messy character with intensity, compassion and humor, you give her the Emmy. This isn’t advanced math.
Will win: Jodie Foster
Should win: Jodie Foster
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Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Jonathan Bailey, Fellow Travelers
Robert Downey Jr., The Sympathizer
Tom Goodman-Hill, Baby ReindeerÂ
John Hawkes, True Detective: Night Country
Lamorne Morris, Fargo
Lewis Pullman, Lessons in Chemistry
Treat Williams, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans
We’d been banging the “Robert Downey Jr. is inevitable†drum for so long — until a few weeks ago when we realized he’s not inevitable; he’s Iron Man. Or, more specifically, he’s tied to his MCU past in a way that awards voters may not have realized before the recent events at San Diego Comic Con.
I’d still place RDJ as the favorite to win, but if the enthusiasm for The Sympathizer truly isn’t there (zero nominations outside of this one), who’s the beneficiary of this category? I’d say Treat Williams, but the Emmys rarely go for posthumous awards. I could see Tom Goodman-Hill getting carried to the podium in a Baby Reindeer sweep (Emmy voters love their sweeps). Or it could be that Jonathan Bailey’s “he’s so hot right now†career trajectory will get enough people to punch his ballot for what was quite an effective and emotionally intense portrayal of a gay man of faith.
Will win: Robert Downey Jr.
Should win: Jonathan Bailey
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Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Dakota Fanning, Ripley
Lily Gladstone, Under the Bridge
Jessica Gunning, Baby Reindeer
Aja Naomi King, Lessons in ChemistryÂ
Diane Lane, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans
Nava Mau, Baby Reindeer
Kali Reis, True Detective: Night Country
Lots of X factors here. Lily Gladstone’s run through last year’s Oscar season could be an even bigger advantage than for Andrew Scott and Greta Lee in their categories. Gladstone seemingly came within a hair’s breadth of a Best Actress win for Killers of the Flower Moon, and there’s definitely a sense that she’s overdue for some kind of trophy now. Kali Reis gets the benefit of being a co-lead on her show, though if voters are going for Jodie Foster, will they want to double down with two acting awards for True Detective? Meanwhile, Dakota Fanning is excellent as Ripley’s sour-faced Marge, but I’m guessing Emmy voters won’t be as locked in on her as I was. Most likely, this category will come down to the two nominees from Baby Reindeer and possibly a stress test for how much awards voting comes down to liking the character as much as (or more than) the performance. Nava Mau plays the far more sympathetic character, while Jessica Gunning plays an absolute monster. But Gunning is so thunderously good at playing that absolute monster. She could be hard to deny.
Will win: Jessica Gunning
Should win: Jessica Gunning
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Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series, Anthology, or Movie
Baby Reindeer, “Episode 4,†Weronika Tofilska
Fargo, “The Tragedy of the Commons,†Noah Hawley
Feud: Capote vs. The Swans, “Pilot,†Gus Van Sant
Lessons in Chemistry, “Poirot,†Millicent Shelton
Ripley, Steven Zaillian
True Detective: Night Country, Issa López
You would think this category would be subject to some stargazing effect, where the bigger-name Hollywood directors would have an advantage over their lesser-known competition. But that hasn’t been the case as of late: Barry Jenkins, Ben Stiller, Stephen Frears, Ava DuVernay, Barry Levinson, Ron Howard, and Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris are just a few of the big-time movie directors who recently took a back seat on Emmy night. Which means don’t try to get cute and place a bet on Gus Van Sant here.
Baby Reindeer is the favorite to win because it’s the favorite to win in the Limited Series category. Only twice since 2008 has the Directing win gone to a show that didn’t win either Outstanding Limited Series or Outstanding TV Movie, and in both of those cases, Watchmen and The People vs. O.J. Simpson had multiple nominated episodes, which likely split their vote. If there’s a challenger to Baby Reindeer, it could be Ripley, a show with a gorgeous black-and-white aesthetic and whose director, Steve Zaillian, is a hugely respected screenwriter with a long and storied career (he’s an Oscar winner for Schindler’s List).
Will win: Baby Reindeer
Should win: Ripley
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Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series, Anthology, or Movie
Baby Reindeer, Richard Gadd
Black Mirror, “Joan Is Awful,†Charlie Brooker
Fargo, “The Tragedy of the Commons,†Noah Hawley
Fellow Travelers, “You’re Wonderful,†Ron Nyswaner
Ripley, Steven Zaillian
True Detective: Night Country, “Part 6â€
While it would be beyond incredible for Black Mirror to win just to give the stamp of Emmy approval to a script that includes the notation “[Joan] yanks down her skirt, squats and starts to SHIT copiously and spectacularly on the stone floor,†I’m not giving myself over to hope.
Again, I think this comes down to Baby Reindeer or Ripley, and even more so than in Directing, this one is all sewn up for Baby Reindeer. It’s a way to award Richard Gadd if you didn’t vote for him in Lead Actor, and the show’s personal nature makes it feel like a writer’s triumph more than a director’s one. Shows like Fellow Travelers and True Detective are weakest on a script level.
Will win: Baby Reindeer
Should win: Baby Reindeer
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Outstanding Reality Competition Program
The Amazing Race
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Top Chef
The Traitors
The Voice
At the Creative Arts Emmys, Alan Cumming won the Outstanding Host award, breaking RuPaul’s eight-year winning streak and raising expectations for a Traitors win in this category. The math on that certainly checks out, but this category stubbornly sticks with the same winners year after year. Everything feels set for a Traitors ascendency, which is exactly why I’m so nervous about betting against RuPaul’s Drag Race.
Will win: The TraitorsÂ
Should win: The Traitors
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Outstanding Talk Series
The Daily Show
Jimmy Kimmel Live!Â
Late Night with Seth MeyersÂ
The Late Show with Stephen ColbertÂ
The Daily Show won this award 11 times from 2003 to 2015, and then after Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (the reigning winner from 2016 onward) was siphoned off into a different category last year, TDS won again. Particularly in an election year, when people tend to get nostalgic for the way Jon Stewart used to dismantle every right-wing talking point and demagogue that cropped up, I’m not about to put my chips on anyone else to win. Even if Seth Meyers has long since deserved this award for making the most consistently funny and smart talk show on late night.
Will win: The Daily ShowÂ
Should win: Late Night with Seth MeyersÂ
.
Outstanding Scripted Variety Series
Last Week Tonight with John OliverÂ
Saturday Night LiveÂ
This “who will win†question is pretty laughable at this point. John Oliver doesn’t lose Emmys. That’s not what we have John Olivers for. The question is whether I feel like saying that SNL — as uneven as it always is — deserves the win just because I’m bored with Last Week Tonight always winning. Because I am. And SNL had that great Jumanji sketch this year, plus they dressed Ryan Gosling up like Beavis. Then there’s perhaps my secret favorite thing they’ve done lately: the Nate Bargatze George Washington sketch about weights and measures. That’s good enough for a “should win.â€
Will win: Last Week Tonight with John OliverÂ
Should win: Saturday Night Live
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Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special
Alex Edelman: Just for Us, Alex Edelman
Jacqueline Novak: Get on Your Knees, Jacqueline Novak
John Early: Now More Than Ever, John Early
Mike Birbiglia: The Old Man and the Pool, Mike Birbiglia
The Oscars, Jamie Abrahams, Rory Albanese, Amberia Allen, Tony Barbieri, Jonathan Bines, Joelle Boucai, Bryan Cook, Blaire Erskine, Devin Field, Gary Greenberg, Josh Halloway, Eric Immerman, Jesse Joyce, Jimmy Kimmel, Carol Leifer, Jon Macks, Mitch Marchand, Gregory Martin, Jesse McLaren, Molly McNearney, Keaton Patti, Danny Ricker, Louis Virtel, and Troy Walker
Our own Jesse David Fox and Kathryn VanArendonk unpacked this one pretty extensively, and their ultimate conclusion feels both correct and deceptively simple: Alex Edelman’s one-man show won a (noncompetitive) Tony Award, which is like winning the industry-snob Mega Millions. Mike Birbiglia’s flail-swimming can’t compete with that. John Early’s archly gorgeous “After the Gold Rush†performance can’t compete with that. Jimmy Kimmel’s Oppenheimer jokes can’t compete with that.
Will win: Alex Edelman: Just for Us
Should win: John Early: Now More Than Ever
More Gold Rush
- Oscar Season Kicks Off With Trump Impressions and a Bond Tease
- How Every Oscar Movie Can Be the Anti-Trump Movie
- Are Netflix Normies Ready for Emilia Pérez?